With the film down to a few showings in a few cinemas across the United Kingdom and the United States, Alien: Covenant has just opened in China on the 16th to a fairly decent opening weekend of just under $30 million, pushing The Mummy off the top of the Chinese film charts and nearly equaling the $34 million that Prometheus took in its entire run in China.
Despite pretty decent critical and fan reviews, Alien: Covenant struggled to maintain any momentum in the Box Office having taken nearly $215 million. It’s not a flop by any stretch but it hasn’t been the massive success 20th Century Fox were likely after.
“Ridley Scott’s Alien: Covenant opened at the top of the Chinese box office over the weekend with $30 million. The 20th Century Fox film earned $10.2 million on Friday, followed by just under $11 million on Saturday and $7.5 million on Sunday, according to data from Beijing box-office monitor Ent Group (the company’s weekend estimate was slightly lower than Fox’s at $29.1 million). The movie has pulled in $215 million worldwide as of Sunday.”
Alien: Covenant concept art by Wayne Haag.
The Chinese cinema regulators also cut around 6 minutes worth of footage from Alien: Covenant. Most of the edits seemed to have been around the Aliens and Neomorphs and their associated gore. However, the regulators also went for the David and Walter kiss, removing that scene as well.
Alien: Covenant seems to be making a similar impact on the Chinese cinema-goers as it did in the United States and Europe, currently rated as 7.4 on Douban. After China, the next big region for Alien: Covenant’s release is Japan on the 15th of August.
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Honestly, why would Fox not take that risk and release a third one? They have everything to gain and nothing to lose, even if a third movie just breaks even.
It's a safe bet Fox will approve of another 'ALIEN' movie in the current cycle, even if it just wraps it all up.
-Windebieste.
Yes. I think for Fox, they like an Alien movie to get about 3 X the production budget before approving a sequel.
From this news I'll do some math to get some estimates of the overall box office results for A:C and what that means for its performance.
* Japan first weekend; "Prometheus" $3.6M from deadline.com (Box Office Mojo has that opening weekend at $3.8M.)
"Alien: Covenant" $2.6M
- 2.6 divided by 3.6 gives what percentage A:C's opening was compared with "Prometheus".
Answer; 72% using the deadline.com number
(2.6 divided by 3.8 = 68% using the Box Office Mojo "Prometheus" number)
- "Prometheus" total box office in Japan; $21,816,409 which I'll round down to $21 million. (I'm being conservative with these estimates.)
X 72% = about $15 million estimate for A:C in Japan using the deadline.com numbers
(X 68% = about $14 million estimate for A:C in Japan using the Box Office Mojo number)
* Total estimated box office for "Alien Covenant".
Currently "Alien Covenant" box office is at $236 million but that may include the new Japan box office.
Google has the A:C box office at $233.1 million which is probably what it is without the numbers from Japan.
$233.1 million + the estimated $15 million or $14 million gets A:C into the $248 / $247 million range.
$248 / $247 million box office would be 2.56 / 2.55 times the production budget ($97 million).
2.5 time the production budget is $242.5 million.
* It looks like A:C box office will get to 2.5 times its production budget ($242.5 million).
- Many movies that have box office at around 2.5 times their production budget have historically been considered decent performers (getting sequels for instance).
"Prometheus" did $3.6M after first weekend.
Source: http://deadline.com/2017/09/war-for-the-planet-of-the-apes-china-opening-it-movie-spider-man-homecoming-mother-international-box-office-1202171328/
Will China's blu-rays also be heavily edited. Will a percentage of those 45 million want to see what they missed. Or will the black market thrive off the back of those edits?
Some Blu-ray chart stuff.
Here's the link so we keep an eye out for Japan's BO results over the weekend.
http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Alien-Covenant#tab=international
Apparently, internationally, Covenant did best in China. $45 million.
"Yes, Summer Box Office Was Bad — and Here's 6 Reasons Why the Worst is Yet to Come"
http://www.indiewire.com/2017/08/summer-box-office-bad-foreign-audience-transformers-despicable-me-1201868845/
NUMBER UNO
All true.
But if "Covenant" earned $20 million in Japan, it would be a solid boost to its overall box office (divided by production budget).
So, I'm still rooting for decent numbers from Japan just so the Fox studio will be encouraged to release another Alien movie in the next 5 years.
But I don't know if Hollywood even cares that much. Our movies don't make a ton over there anyway. The most any movie can expect there seems to be about $20 million.
According to Blu-ray.com the normal Blu-ray is #1, the 4K is #4.
This is the only site I know of. Doesn't look like any blu-ray sale data is posted yet.
http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Alien-Covenant#tab=summary
But if such a widely acclaimed movie like that makes similarly lackluster numbers, I think it's more proof that studios shouldn't be releasing anything but major superhero movies during superhero season.
Covenant should have stayed in October.
Surprised there is no mention of Apes in there, that's unquestionably been a bigger disappointment for Fox. Shame cause I thought Apes was a 9/10 and Covenant maybe a 6/7 outta 10; nowhere near as lacklustre as their figures suggest.
http://variety.com/2017/film/news/21st-century-fox-earnings-beat-expectations-revenues-miss-1202521215/
I know, but when the thread has devolved into conversations about Daniels' hair, I think maaaaaaybeee we've gone a bit of topic.
For example, I just noticed that Alien: Covenant is Scott's lowest-grossing science fiction movie at the domestic box office.
Adjusted for inflation, Blade Runner made $83,397,000 domestically, and was considered a flop. (The good news is, that didn't stop Blade Runner from becoming a classic down the road.)
And speaking of Japan: Covenant also made less than Black Rain (Domestic Total Adj. Gross: $103,482,400).
I'm sure Japan will course correct this thread in September.
What glorious times, those were.
Good job they don't exist in the same universe.
Discuss!
But seriously. What is this?
I think it's time to shut down this thread.