Quote from: monkeylove on Jul 14, 2017, 02:25:39 AM
Quote from: bb-15 on Jul 13, 2017, 08:28:25 PM
My disagreements with this argument;
1. The claim that box office needs 4 x the production budget to be get a sequel is just a theory.
* We can test the theory of when studios approve sequels by looking at the numbers and seeing when sequels are approved. (From the numbers.com website)
http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/franchise/X-Men#tab=summary
- May 26, 2006 X-Men: The Last Stand, production budget: $210,000,000, worldwide box office: $459,359,555, ratio box office/budget = 2.19
Sequel approved.
- May 1, 2009 X-Men Origins: Wolverine, production budget: $150,000,000, worldwide box office: $374,825,760, ratio box office/budget = 2.49
Sequel approved.
- Jun 3, 2011 X-Men: First Class, production budget: $160,000,000 worldwide box office: $355,408,30 ratio box office/budget = 2.22
Sequel approved.
So, that's two franchises (Star Trek & X-Men) where sequels were approved with box office being about 2.5 x the production budget or even less.
I could find more examples.
2. A movie makes money from more than just theater box office. There are disk sales (DVD/Blu-ray), streaming, cable broadcast fees, and with science fiction there are merchandising fees from toys and comics.
** Back to "Covenant"; a sequel could happen if its box office gets to 2.5 the production budget. Why? Because there are multiple movies which got sequels (like Batman Begins, Star Trek, X-Men) where that kind of performance got a sequel.
3. The Alien franchise is considered to be one of the top science fiction movie/TV franchises of all time.
http://screenrant.com/greatest-science-fiction-franchises-ever/
The challenge for the Fox studio is to figure out how to release an Alien franchise movie which can get better box office.
Whether the studio goes with a film more like "Prometheus" or "Aliens", there is the potential to make money and because of that, the Alien franchise is not dead.
The point isn't that a sequel requires revenues at up to four times the budget.
My point is that you and I are not studio executives.
Another of my points is that all we can know if our theories about sequels are correct is by what past box office/budget performance can lead to a sequel.
* Besides, several Star Trek and X-Men movies (and Batman Begins) getting sequels approved with box office ~2.5 x (or below) the production budget, there are other moves where this happened.
- From
the-numbers.com- Jan 20, 2006 Underworld: Evolution, production budget: $45,000,000, worldwide box office: $113,417,762, ratio box office/budget = 2.5
Sequel approved.
- Jan 23, 2009 Underworld 3: Rise of the Lycans, production budget: $35,000,000, worldwide box office: $89,102,315, ratio box office/budget = 2.5
Sequel approved.
- Jan 20, 2012 Underworld: Awakening, production budget: $70,000,000, worldwide box office: $160,379,930, ratio box office/budget = 2.3
Sequel approved.
- A straight comedy movie, Analyze This, Production Budget: $80 million, Worldwide box office: $176,885,658, ratio box office/budget = 2.2 (from Box Office Mojo)
Sequel approved.
- I've already mentioned "AVP". It's box office was above 2.5 x the production budget but it's below 3x at around 2.87.
Sequel approved.
Quote from: monkeylove on Jul 14, 2017, 02:25:39 AMThe Alien franchise is one of the best, but that's not shown in the two recent releases.
We all are entitled to our personal taste about any film.
- But our personal taste should not be part of this discussion. (Individual personal taste does not = professional critic rankings or large viewer polls.)
The personal taste of a few individuals has nothing to do with the fact that several movies exist which got sequels that had box office which was about 2.5 x their production budgets.
- As for the box office for "Prometheus", it was 3.1 x its production budget. And it got a sequel. Many films get sequels when their box office is 3 x the production budget.
And comparing "Prometheus" box office with some other Alien franchise films?
- Alien3 - production budget $50 million, world wide box office, $159 million, ratio box office/budget = 3.18
Sequel approved and "Prometheus" did about the same with its box office / budget performance.
- Alien Resurrection - production budget $75 million, world wide box office, $161 million, ratio box office/budget = 2.15
Sequel not approved.
But both "Prometheus" and "Covenant" have outperformed Resurrection.
* Bottom line; again, going by the publicly known facts about film history, box office and production budgets, if the box office for "Covenant" gets to 2.5 x its production budget, it could get a sequel.