Okay, people say a lot of teens saw the first film, but just think, the first came out august 2004, any 14 year old who saw that movie, and some 13 year olds your turned 14 later that year, would be 17 by the time this film comes out, able to see it in the theater.
its the teens that didn't know there were ever predator or alien films that liked AVP that will still see this movie.
and don't know where all of this budget talk is coming from, AVP had a budget of 45 million, with marketing, it was closer to 60-80 million, 80 million tops.
This movie has, according to everything we've heard, not only a budget less then AVP, so under 45 million, but quite a low budget altogether, so we are talking low 30 millions for the budget.
if this film's budget is anywhere around 30 million, or anything less, then 100 million worldwide would be profitable for this film, studios keep 55% of the worldwide gross.
so with marketing and everything, this movie might top out as costing 50-60 million, and again, if it can hit 100 million worldwide, that would be breaking even, with dvd sales to look forward too.
so if this movie can make anything over 100 million, even like 120 million, it will be successful, its got a low budget, marketing has been started later then usual, so there won't end up being a lot spent on marketing, so anything north of 100 million would be good for this film.
and I think it really depends on its domestic numbers, because from what I hear, its picking very uncrowded days in the foreign markets, so thats easy money.
its going up against some serious big hitter on christmas though, a lot of family films and what not, so being big domestically would be tuff, but then again, by now, I think some might be tired of the usual big christmas family adventure movie(remember Eragon last year, performed pretty mildly, because people are tired of movies like that) and the adults will feel like seeing something more mature, and AVP-R will be out.
So I doubt it will win # 1 grosser on its opening day or weekend, but it will do good
I think a 20-30 million opening domestic weekend would be good for this film.
It will at least make 40 or so million domestically I think, and at least 100 million worldwide, it could do better, a bit better, but if it hits 200 million worldwide, that would be great, and ensure another film, but I doubt it will make that much
