Quote from: SuicideDoors on May 04, 2017, 08:01:26 PM
https://twitter.com/boxoffice/status/860197687706218496
Hopefully these guys are just full of shit and they haven't got a clue but they reckon Covenant is only tracking mid 30s/high 30s for opening weekend. I really think it has to open over $50million!
They are usually pretty accurate and have their own models (which aren't all that complicated) that take into account release window, genre, franchise, competition and some polling information. They may even have access to some meta data raked from the internet. Overall they usually produce a pretty accurate estimate, but occasionally they under/over shoot.
Someone else asked how much a movie has to make to 'break even'. A general rule of thumb is that the studio will take, approximately, 50% of the US market (front heavy) and approximately 33% of the foreign market (varying wildly by country with China being exceptionally low ~ 25%).
I do not know what the estimated budget is here but I have heard rumors of it being around 150 million dollars. That doesn't include marketing/distribution so that would add on another 80+ (Matt Damon's Great Wall movie had an 80 million dollar marketing campaign and Covenant seems more visible).
Essentially the number to hit is roughly 200-250 million.
.5*(NA B.O.) + .25(Chinas B.O.) + .4 (Non China foreign B.O.) = studio's take.
Let's assume it mimics Prometheus (which I think is generous)... the studio's take on Prometheus was roughly: 63 million domestic and 111 million WW for a total of 174 million.