Alien: Covenant Box Office Performance

[Hamster1066]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/japan/

Here's the link so we keep an eye out for Japan's BO results over the weekend.

http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Alien-Covenant#tab=international

Apparently, internationally, Covenant did best in China. $45 million.

Will China's blu-rays also be heavily edited. Will a percentage of those 45 million want to see what they missed. Or will the black market thrive off the back of those edits?

[Daszkowski]

"Alien: Covenant" opened to $2,6M in Japan.

"Prometheus" did $3.6M after first weekend.

Source: http://deadline.com/2017/09/war-for-the-planet-of-the-apes-china-opening-it-movie-spider-man-homecoming-mother-international-box-office-1202171328/

[bb-15]

"Alien: Covenant" opened to $2,6M in Japan.

"Prometheus" did $3.6M after first weekend.

Source: http://deadline.com/2017/09/war-for-the-planet-of-the-apes-china-opening-it-movie-spider-man-homecoming-mother-international-box-office-1202171328/

From this news I'll do some math to get some estimates of the overall box office results for A:C and what that means for its performance.

* Japan first weekend; "Prometheus" $3.6M from deadline.com (Box Office Mojo has that opening weekend at $3.8M.)
"Alien: Covenant" $2.6M
- 2.6 divided by 3.6 gives what percentage A:C's opening was compared with "Prometheus".
Answer; 72% using the deadline.com number
(2.6 divided by 3.8 = 68% using the Box Office Mojo "Prometheus" number)

- "Prometheus" total box office in Japan; $21,816,409 which I'll round down to $21 million. (I'm being conservative with these estimates.)
X 72% = about $15 million estimate for A:C in Japan using the deadline.com numbers
(X 68% = about $14 million estimate for A:C in Japan using the Box Office Mojo number)

* Total estimated box office for "Alien Covenant".
Currently  "Alien Covenant" box office is at $236 million but that may include the new Japan box office.
Google has the A:C box office at $233.1 million which is probably what it is without the numbers from Japan.

$233.1 million + the estimated $15 million or $14 million gets A:C into the $248 / $247 million range.
$248 / $247 million box office would be 2.56 / 2.55 times the production budget ($97 million).
2.5 time the production budget is $242.5 million.

* It looks like A:C box office will get to 2.5 times its production budget ($242.5 million).
- Many movies that have box office at around 2.5 times their production budget have historically been considered decent performers (getting sequels for instance).

[Scorpio]

That's actually a better result than Batman Begins.  Doesn't mean we'll get a sequel, though.  The world could end tomorrow for all we know.

[bb-15]

That's actually a better result than Batman Begins.  Doesn't mean we'll get a sequel, though.  The world could end tomorrow for all we know.

Yes. I think for Fox, they like an Alien movie to get about 3 X the production budget before approving a sequel.

[SM]

Not sure comparing it to a 12 year old film is much of a comparison.

[windebieste]

The combined takings for 'PROMETHEUS' and 'ALIEN: Covenant' exceed $600m.  There's no guarantee, but a third movie could possibly break the $1b mark.

Honestly, why would Fox not take that risk and release a third one? They have everything to gain and nothing to lose, even if a third movie just breaks even.

It's a safe bet Fox will approve of another 'ALIEN' movie in the current cycle, even if it just wraps it all up. 

-Windebieste.

[Deadmeat]

Sounds promising. Honestly, I see more reasons for Fox to finish the run, rather than cutting it short. Like Windebieste said - they honestly have nothing to lose. Even if the next movie flops, it won't flop so badly it won't break even. That's my opinion, though.

[PRI. HUDSON]

Not bad. Let's see how it goes from here.

[Whiskeybrewer]

Okay this isn't bad at all. Maybe they will do a third one in this prequel trilogy. Hopefully Ridley wraps it up as I think that's what I needs before its decided what happens next

[Scorpio]

The Alien franchise is a blue chip investment.  The returns are not always high, but they always return a profit.  There is very little risk to the investor.

[Justice Lord]

I really hope it gets to 250 million.  Fox could easily market the 3rd movie as final in prequel trilogy & picking a better release date this time. Fox has nothing to lose here.

[zoidy]

Picked it up on blu today in UK, looking forward to seeing it again.

[ESPILFIRE]

I bought BR+4K on friday. I hope FOX approve sequel and we can close the trilogy... but I would like a better film than Prometheus and Covenant too. Ridley can do it, he only need a good script, answer the questions and stay focused on it.

[Whos_Nick]

The film ending up around 240-250 million worldwide probably doesn't change much when you look at the domestic total. It underperformed heavily stateside which is the number studios care about most, unless it does huge numbers overseas.