Alien: Covenant Box Office Performance

[Robopadna]

I know what you are trying to say and you are not entirely correct.  I told you why a sequel might be made despite the first losing money.  Alien making 220 WW on a 97 (not sure where you got 93 from now) is pretty clearly a flop.  Now if YOU don't want to call it a flop, that's fine.  But plenty of people with a much better understanding of the box office can tell you that is the category it is sitting in.

Again, look at my previous post.

I guess time will tell the tale. Let's see how China and Japan do before calling it though. As I said earlier in the thread I would have never have laid a bet that Resi TFC would make so much money over there so we never know.

It's very hard to tell how a movie will do, exactly, in China.  Usually a staggered release is detrimental to the box office there because of the pirating scene but certain movies (that one included seem to do fine).  China also has a tendency to overinflate returns to make the market seem more powerful than it is.  For instance, with the release of Warcraft, the Chinese market was reporting numbers from provinces that did not have theatres in them.  Overall it's like that on most movies there so you just take the numbers as reported unless you really want to do a deep dive into the data.

[monkeylove]

in what universe is 2001 horror-action?

I'm referring to the Alien franchise. How does that become like 2001?

because a horror franchise that goes in a 2001 direction actually seems kinda unique and interesting.  Not all of us like the action part of alien.  Alien is more horror suspense and way less action.  Everything is based on tension not dudes with guns.

To go in that direction, the "horror" part has to be dropped, too.

Also, the "horror" part in Alien involved slowly revealing the creature throughout the first film. Obviously, that was no longer possible in the sequel,  which is why the genre was shifted to action.

[Robopadna]

in what universe is 2001 horror-action?

I'm referring to the Alien franchise. How does that become like 2001?

I think there was confusion over the phrasing when someone said 'a horror action movie'.  They meant why would you want a horror action movie to be like 2001, not that they thought 2001 was a horror action movie.

This is pretty non box office related though I guess.

[900SL]

As I understand it, and I quote here:

'An American motion picture studio typically gets back somewhere about 40% to 50% of the domestic box office gross a motion picture makes at the theater. A distribution fee, usually 10% to 12%, is paid to the company that distributes the film (doing much of the advertising and preparation and shipment of the copies of the film).

The movie theaters also get a significant cut, and take an increasing amount of the box office returns the longer a film is in theaters, based on the workings of the deals they have signed with the distribution company. For the first two weeks, most of the money goes to the studio; from week 3 on, increasingly more of the money goes to the movie theater.

Foreign distribution and foreign movie theaters keep more of the box office gross for themselves (often to cover the costs of transporting a motion picture overseas and promoting it there as well). American studios tend to get back something about 30% of box office money earned outside of the United States and Canad'

Based on this assessment:

Current domestic gross:  60M so the Studio may get 30-40M from that, not much more as we are beyond the first two weeks.
Overseas:  100M, the studio gets about 30M based on the above

Domestic video/streaming sales: May make 30M gross, 15M net for the studio..

So we are looking at 60- 70M return on 100M investment so far.  It might break even, even make a small profit, although China is unlikely to give a significant boost, as the %age returns are low and the film doesn't tick the right boxes with the Chinese audience (no 3-D, too much dialogue) plus ist is not seen as a hit in the US..

[kwisatz]

...I personally know no one...

That explains a lot.

Nice, really nice. I bet with this kind of sophisticated humor your the alpha male in your dudebro gang. Kindergarten mentality, always a pleasure.

Can you two please stop acting like you know what you're talking about?

After you.

[Robopadna]

As I understand it, and I quote here:

'An American motion picture studio typically gets back somewhere about 40% to 50% of the domestic box office gross a motion picture makes at the theater. A distribution fee, usually 10% to 12%, is paid to the company that distributes the film (doing much of the advertising and preparation and shipment of the copies of the film).

The movie theaters also get a significant cut, and take an increasing amount of the box office returns the longer a film is in theaters, based on the workings of the deals they have signed with the distribution company. For the first two weeks, most of the money goes to the studio; from week 3 on, increasingly more of the money goes to the movie theater.

Foreign distribution and foreign movie theaters keep more of the box office gross for themselves (often to cover the costs of transporting a motion picture overseas and promoting it there as well). American studios tend to get back something about 30% of box office money earned outside of the United States and Canad'

Based on this assessment:

Current domestic gross:  60M so the Studio may get 30-40M from that, not much more as we are beyond the first two weeks.
Overseas:  100M, the studio gets about 30M based on the above

Domestic video/streaming sales: May make 30M gross, 15M net for the studio..

So we are looking at 60- 70M return on 100M investment so far.  It might break even, even make a small profit, although China is unlikely to give a significant boost, as the %age returns are low and the film doesn't tick the right boxes with the Chinese audience (no 3-D, too much dialogue) plus ist is not seen as a hit in the US..

While that is a pretty good break down, you are forgetting to add in the marketing and distribution cost into the 100 million dollar investment (print ads alone for covenant are reported to be in the 20-25 million dollar range).  In the end, the investment is more along the lines of 200 million.  if you want to absolutely low ball it, you can go with 150ish but I think that's pretty unrealistic in this case.

Also, this part isn't true any more

The movie theaters also get a significant cut, and take an increasing amount of the box office returns the longer a film is in theaters, based on the workings of the deals they have signed with the distribution company. For the first two weeks, most of the money goes to the studio; from week 3 on, increasingly more of the money goes to the movie theater.

Generally speaking it is a flat 50-55% now for studios after theatres started going under by insanely front loaded films.  There are some securities worked out where theatres, not studios, are protected from absolute bombs (they get a higher % of the first x amount of money which flattens out to 50% pretty quickly).

So we are looking at 60- 70M return on 100M investment so far.  It might break even, even make a small profit, although China is unlikely to give a significant boost, as the %age returns are low and the film doesn't tick the right boxes with the Chinese audience (no 3-D, too much dialogue) plus ist is not seen as a hit in the US.

China is going to be rough...   studios only see about 33% of China's box office and even less after expenses (distribution over there plus sub titles and or voice actors, currency exchanges and taxes etc., etc.) and I have seen estimates in the range of only really seeing 10-15%.

[Gash]

...I personally know no one...

That explains a lot.

Nice, really nice. I bet with this kind of sophisticated humor your the alpha male in your dudebro gang.

I apologise unreservedly.

[900SL]

As I understand it, and I quote here:

'An American motion picture studio typically gets back somewhere about 40% to 50% of the domestic box office gross a motion picture makes at the theater. A distribution fee, usually 10% to 12%, is paid to the company that distributes the film (doing much of the advertising and preparation and shipment of the copies of the film).

The movie theaters also get a significant cut, and take an increasing amount of the box office returns the longer a film is in theaters, based on the workings of the deals they have signed with the distribution company. For the first two weeks, most of the money goes to the studio; from week 3 on, increasingly more of the money goes to the movie theater.

Foreign distribution and foreign movie theaters keep more of the box office gross for themselves (often to cover the costs of transporting a motion picture overseas and promoting it there as well). American studios tend to get back something about 30% of box office money earned outside of the United States and Canad'

Based on this assessment:

Current domestic gross:  60M so the Studio may get 30-40M from that, not much more as we are beyond the first two weeks.
Overseas:  100M, the studio gets about 30M based on the above

Domestic video/streaming sales: May make 30M gross, 15M net for the studio..

So we are looking at 60- 70M return on 100M investment so far.  It might break even, even make a small profit, although China is unlikely to give a significant boost, as the %age returns are low and the film doesn't tick the right boxes with the Chinese audience (no 3-D, too much dialogue) plus ist is not seen as a hit in the US..

While that is a pretty good break down, you are forgetting to add in the marketing and distribution cost into the 100 million dollar investment (print ads alone for covenant are reported to be in the 20-25 million dollar range).  In the end, the investment is more along the lines of 200 million.  if you want to absolutely low ball it, you can go with 150ish but I think that's pretty unrealistic in this case.

Also, this part isn't true any more

The movie theaters also get a significant cut, and take an increasing amount of the box office returns the longer a film is in theaters, based on the workings of the deals they have signed with the distribution company. For the first two weeks, most of the money goes to the studio; from week 3 on, increasingly more of the money goes to the movie theater.

Generally speaking it is a flat 50-55% now for studios after theatres started going under by insanely front loaded films.  There are some securities worked out where theatres, not studios, are protected from absolute bombs (they get a higher % of the first x amount of money which flattens out to 50% pretty quickly).

So we are looking at 60- 70M return on 100M investment so far.  It might break even, even make a small profit, although China is unlikely to give a significant boost, as the %age returns are low and the film doesn't tick the right boxes with the Chinese audience (no 3-D, too much dialogue) plus ist is not seen as a hit in the US.

China is going to be rough...   studios only see about 33% of China's box office and even less after expenses (distribution over there plus sub titles and or voice actors, currency exchanges and taxes etc., etc.) and I have seen estimates in the range of only really seeing 10-15%.

Re-running the numbers, and lowballing the marketing side:

Cost 150M

Return 30M domestic on 60M
            30M International on 100M

Potential: Japan returned 21M on Prom, so lowside 15M with 5M for the studio
DVD/Streaming say 15M for the studio

Total return ex China  80 million. So China has to gross at least 210M to break even, and that's based on lowballing marketing and distribution costs, and % return on Chinese gross. . Ain't gonna happen...

[Richman678]

I had a thought recently. I have noticed that almost every YouTube video review/discussion for this movie is negative. People really do wait to see how YouTube reacts to certain things now.

I am going to guess that is the reason the movie performed so poorly on it's second week.

[Jonesy1974]

I had a thought recently. I have noticed that almost every YouTube video review/discussion for this movie is negative. People really do wait to see how YouTube reacts to certain things now.

I am going to guess that is the reason the movie performed so poorly on it's second week.

That doesn't surprise me. I avoid watching them. They all seem to be about creating a platform and notoriety for the individual rather than about the actual films. Can't take them seriously really.

[Gash]

I had a thought recently. I have noticed that almost every YouTube video review/discussion for this movie is negative. People really do wait to see how YouTube reacts to certain things now.

I am going to guess that is the reason the movie performed so poorly on it's second week.

That doesn't surprise me. I avoid watching them. They all seem to be about creating a platform and notoriety for the individual rather than about the actual films. Can't take them seriously really.

I watched a few but but yes you're right. Provocative tiles like 'It sucks' 'Why I hate..., 'Fail etc. It's all just click bait. They sit back and watch the fireworks and get off on the number of hits their channel gets. Best avoided.

The better ones that have some analysis - good, bad or neutral are still worth a watch, but wading through the utter shite to get there isn't easy.

[Robopadna]

I had a thought recently. I have noticed that almost every YouTube video review/discussion for this movie is negative. People really do wait to see how YouTube reacts to certain things now.

I am going to guess that is the reason the movie performed so poorly on it's second week.

Other movies that have those succeed.  It had a plummeting drop off because people either had zero desire to see it again or weren't that interested int he first place.

[Alionic]

I had a thought recently. I have noticed that almost every YouTube video review/discussion for this movie is negative. People really do wait to see how YouTube reacts to certain things now.

I am going to guess that is the reason the movie performed so poorly on it's second week.

It's a shame how so many people are influenced by grotesque neckbeards in their space marine outfits on youtube.

[Kerrod33]

As I understand it, and I quote here:

'An American motion picture studio typically gets back somewhere about 40% to 50% of the domestic box office gross a motion picture makes at the theater. A distribution fee, usually 10% to 12%, is paid to the company that distributes the film (doing much of the advertising and preparation and shipment of the copies of the film).

The movie theaters also get a significant cut, and take an increasing amount of the box office returns the longer a film is in theaters, based on the workings of the deals they have signed with the distribution company. For the first two weeks, most of the money goes to the studio; from week 3 on, increasingly more of the money goes to the movie theater.

Foreign distribution and foreign movie theaters keep more of the box office gross for themselves (often to cover the costs of transporting a motion picture overseas and promoting it there as well). American studios tend to get back something about 30% of box office money earned outside of the United States and Canad'

Based on this assessment:

Current domestic gross:  60M so the Studio may get 30-40M from that, not much more as we are beyond the first two weeks.
Overseas:  100M, the studio gets about 30M based on the above

Domestic video/streaming sales: May make 30M gross, 15M net for the studio..

So we are looking at 60- 70M return on 100M investment so far.  It might break even, even make a small profit, although China is unlikely to give a significant boost, as the %age returns are low and the film doesn't tick the right boxes with the Chinese audience (no 3-D, too much dialogue) plus ist is not seen as a hit in the US..

Ok, now I can understand. Thanks for actually explaining 

When I asked how do people figure it is a flop when from the numbers it looked as if it was already in profit after earning $150mil+, all they would pretty much say 'cos reasons' or 'marketing'

[Noah]

Fox spent 70M or even less for Deadpool (marketing costs). It's very unlikely they've spent 100M for A:C.