Alien: Covenant Box Office Performance

Started by John73, May 14, 2017, 05:51:54 PM

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Alien: Covenant Box Office Performance (Read 283,682 times)

motherfather

Urgh. Dicaprio for Prometheus? I can't stand him in anything. Sooo glad he didn't get that part in the end.

If it were up to me, the next film would only have RADA or similar actORs in it. Oh, and Zachary Quinto. :P

Fassbender I do actually like, and in films like xmen he's OK, its just I don't want another all-about-David alien movie. He should be given the "Shaw treatment" for the next movie i.e banished to a few seconds of face time.

Whos_Nick

Quote from: Robopadna on May 26, 2017, 09:03:38 PM
Quote from: Protozoid on May 26, 2017, 05:01:14 PM
Between The Counselor, Steve Jobs, Assassin's Creed, and now Covenant, Fassbender has a pretty poor track record, box office wise, as a lead actor.

I'm sorry but nearly everything you listed there bombed horribly.

which is what he stated

cucuchu

Quote from: Whos_Nick on May 26, 2017, 09:56:46 PM
Quote from: Robopadna on May 26, 2017, 09:03:38 PM
Quote from: Protozoid on May 26, 2017, 05:01:14 PM
Between The Counselor, Steve Jobs, Assassin's Creed, and now Covenant, Fassbender has a pretty poor track record, box office wise, as a lead actor.

I'm sorry but nearly everything you listed there bombed horribly.

which is what he stated


On the plus side maybe that means he will be cheap to hire on for a possible final film.

BishopShouldGo

lol that's not how things work.

cucuchu

Quote from: BishopShouldGo on May 26, 2017, 10:45:45 PM
lol that's not how things work.

Yeah, I figured  :D

Well I would say of those films he was in that bombed, the poor performance was not due to him. He is a good actor and he obviously has put a lot of thought into David (and Walter by extension). I even watched Lawrence of Arabia after Prometheus and Fassbender must of studied that film somewhat as well. I look forward to seeing the end of the story of David and while I hope he is not the focus, it will be interesting seeing his portrayal of David malfunction further and slip deeper and deeper into android dementia.

Robopadna

Quote from: Whos_Nick on May 26, 2017, 09:56:46 PM
Quote from: Robopadna on May 26, 2017, 09:03:38 PM
Quote from: Protozoid on May 26, 2017, 05:01:14 PM
Between The Counselor, Steve Jobs, Assassin's Creed, and now Covenant, Fassbender has a pretty poor track record, box office wise, as a lead actor.

I'm sorry but nearly everything you listed there bombed horribly.

which is what he stated

Maybe he isn't a native English speaker but that isn't what that phrase really means. It means those movies prove he has a track record.

I'd actually say that outside of xmen he isn't a draw at all and xmen is more brand than him. Incredible actor but not a draw.

fiveways

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=covprom.htm

I thought Prometheus actually opened on more screen than Covenant (I thought i read that here).  Box Office mojo says otherwise.

I'll be shocked if Covenant clears 70m in North America.  Hell, I think 60m is gonna be an up hill battle.

Protozoid

Quote from: Robopadna on May 27, 2017, 01:35:59 AM
Quote from: Whos_Nick on May 26, 2017, 09:56:46 PM
Quote from: Robopadna on May 26, 2017, 09:03:38 PM
Quote from: Protozoid on May 26, 2017, 05:01:14 PM
Between The Counselor, Steve Jobs, Assassin's Creed, and now Covenant, Fassbender has a pretty poor track record, box office wise, as a lead actor.

I'm sorry but nearly everything you listed there bombed horribly.

which is what he stated

Maybe he isn't a native English speaker but that isn't what that phrase really means. It means those movies prove he has a track record.

I'd actually say that outside of xmen he isn't a draw at all and xmen is more brand than him. Incredible actor but not a draw.
I clearly said Fassbender had a "poor track record, box office wise, as a lead actor".  Pretty unambiguous English.

Noah

 
Quote from: Protozoid on May 26, 2017, 05:01:14 PM
Between The Counselor, Steve Jobs, Assassin's Creed, and now Covenant, Fassbender has a pretty poor track record, box office wise, as a lead actor.
Well,The Counselor is an ensamble film and was sold as an ensamble film with bigger names than Fassbender. And nobody could have improved AC numbers. It's a VG film that appeals to a very niche audience and it didn't justify a high budget in the first place.
Re A:C: Prometheus didn't have "big names" either,and actually it's difficult for every actor to carry non-franchise movies by themselves,including RDJ,Chris Pratt,Evans, and all those who star in those Marvel monster hits. I think the days of the all star leading man doing are over. Actors don't draw much audiences these days. And,save for XMen,someone like Fassbender is mainly an arthouse kind of film actor.
Anyway,it doesn't make any sense to blame actors when a film like this underperforms. I'd say that Waterston  was the face of the marketing campaign among the actors,but it was evident how the big pull for this franchise - the xenomorphs - was put front and center. This wasn't marketed as a film with this or that actor.


Quote from: SpeedyMaxx on May 26, 2017, 06:16:45 PM
I could buy the story about tension with Rapace and Fassbender if I hadn't seen them doing promotion together. They looked quite chummy in each other's company, and not in a forced junket way. I also don't think Fassbender is some villain scheming to push her out and make the movies about him. This is clearly all Scott.

I don't have to like the story turn in AC, but that doesn't make Michael Fassbender into some sort of IRL bad guy.
Scott is obviously the one who decided to take another direction with the sequels. David  emerged as the most interesting character - and the best performance- so that surely helped,but sometimes I even wonder if Scott really  intended to explore the Engingeers' mythology and world in the sequels to begin with.
And yes,MF and Rapace looked quite chummy during the promotion. I even thought Rapace had a crush on him   :laugh: They got along pretty well. Where does this story even come from? ???


Quote from: RandomNumber on May 26, 2017, 08:32:07 PM
As others may already know, boxofficemojo.com came out with the Thursday numbers, and Covenant is in third place. It came in fourth place if you count the preview showings of Pirates 5. (I'm not sure the experts look at things that way, but it probably gives a good picture of where the weekend box office is going.)

They also have a weekend preview, in which they write: "...we're anticipating Guardians 2 will bring in around $20 million for the three-day with Alien: Covenant bringing in $18 million, which may end up being generous as that only represents a 50% drop."

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4295&p=.htm

Alien: Covenant is a movie I could see having a really steep drop-off in box office. If it is able to pull in $18+ million over the weekend, I think that would be good news for the film (relatively speaking).

That would be the best case scenario. But I'm more inclined to think it will  bring in around 16M. How much Prometheus drop in its second weekend?

fiveways

fiveways

#519
Quote from: Noah on May 27, 2017, 01:56:33 AM

Quote from: Protozoid on May 26, 2017, 05:01:14 PM
Between The Counselor, Steve Jobs, Assassin's Creed, and now Covenant, Fassbender has a pretty poor track record, box office wise, as a lead actor.
Well,The Counselor is an ensamble film and was sold as an ensamble film with bigger names than Fassbender. And nobody could have improved AC numbers. It's a VG film that appeals to a very niche audience and it didn't justify a high budget in the first place.
Re A:C: Prometheus didn't have "big names" either,and actually it's difficult for every actor to carry non-franchise movies by themselves,including RDJ,Chris Pratt,Evans, and all those who star in those Marvel monster hits. I think the days of the all star leading man doing are over. Actors don't draw much audiences these days. And,save for XMen,someone like Fassbender is mainly an arthouse kind of film actor.
Anyway,it doesn't make any sense to blame actors when a film like this underperforms. I'd say that Waterston  was the face of the marketing campaign among the actors,but it was evident how the big pull for this franchise - the xenomorphs - was put front and center. This wasn't marketed as a film with this or that actor.


Quote from: SpeedyMaxx on May 26, 2017, 06:16:45 PM
I could buy the story about tension with Rapace and Fassbender if I hadn't seen them doing promotion together. They looked quite chummy in each other's company, and not in a forced junket way. I also don't think Fassbender is some villain scheming to push her out and make the movies about him. This is clearly all Scott.

I don't have to like the story turn in AC, but that doesn't make Michael Fassbender into some sort of IRL bad guy.
Scott is obviously the one who decided to take another direction with the sequels. David  emerged as the most interesting character - and the best performance- so that surely helped,but sometimes I even wonder if Scott really  intended to explore the Engingeers' mythology and world in the sequels to begin with.
And yes,MF and Rapace looked quite chummy during the promotion. I even thought Rapace had a crush on him   :laugh: They got along pretty well. Where does this story even come from? ???


Quote from: RandomNumber on May 26, 2017, 08:32:07 PM
As others may already know, boxofficemojo.com came out with the Thursday numbers, and Covenant is in third place. It came in fourth place if you count the preview showings of Pirates 5. (I'm not sure the experts look at things that way, but it probably gives a good picture of where the weekend box office is going.)

They also have a weekend preview, in which they write: "...we're anticipating Guardians 2 will bring in around $20 million for the three-day with Alien: Covenant bringing in $18 million, which may end up being generous as that only represents a 50% drop."

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4295&p=.htm

Alien: Covenant is a movie I could see having a really steep drop-off in box office. If it is able to pull in $18+ million over the weekend, I think that would be good news for the film (relatively speaking).

That would be the best case scenario. But I'm more inclined to think it will  bring in around 16M. How much Prometheus drop in its second weekend?

Daily breakdown of the movies verse each other at Box Office mojo.  This link has a lot of interesting stats.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=covprom.htm


Prometheus weekend breakdowns.  It made 20m second weekend.  I'll be surprised if Covenant does 12-13m given it's drop off this week.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=prometheus.htm

Protozoid

Quote from: Noah on May 27, 2017, 01:56:33 AM

Quote from: Protozoid on May 26, 2017, 05:01:14 PM
Between The Counselor, Steve Jobs, Assassin's Creed, and now Covenant, Fassbender has a pretty poor track record, box office wise, as a lead actor.
Well,The Counselor is an ensamble film and was sold as an ensamble film with bigger names than Fassbender. And nobody could have improved AC numbers. It's a VG film that appeals to a very niche audience and it didn't justify a high budget in the first place.
Re A:C: Prometheus didn't have "big names" either,and actually it's difficult for every actor to carry non-franchise movies by themselves,including RDJ,Chris Pratt,Evans, and all those who star in those Marvel monster hits. I think the days of the all star leading man doing are over. Actors don't draw much audiences these days. And,save for XMen,someone like Fassbender is mainly an arthouse kind of film actor.
Anyway,it doesn't make any sense to blame actors when a film like this underperforms. I'd say that Waterston  was the face of the marketing campaign among the actors,but it was evident how the big pull for this franchise - the xenomorphs - was put front and center. This wasn't marketed as a film with this or that actor.
The Counselor was an ensemble, but Fassbender played the title character and is in nearly every scene.  The other characters have significantly less screen time.

A big star like Leonardo DiCaprio or Brad Pitt definitely means something at the box office.  They guarantee a certain amount of interest.

I read a box office analyst say that there are some sort of indicators like audiences are turned off by Fassbender.  If you look at his recent movies, it's overwhelmingly clear that he is not a box office draw like DiCaprio or Pitt.

But my post was more about how Fassbender could be the reason that David stole the spotlight in Covenant.  He probably wasn't interested in versions where Shaw was too smart to reattach his head, for example.  Who would want to play a decapitated head for an entire movie?  In the end, they got a movie where Fassbender plays two roles, has all the best scenes and lines, the new female lead is someone he liked working with before, and he creates the xeno and the movie ends with him gloating over his victory.  C'mon.  It's almost like the script was written just for him, don't you think?  It certainly wasn't exactly what Ridley or Rapace wanted.  It's either Fox or Fassbender, but I don't think Fox would have bothered sending Fassbender a script they didn't intend to green light... unless they needed Fassbender to be onboard.  Either way, I think I have pretty good cause to single out Fassbender as the person with ultimate veto power over the script.  If Scott liked it, he'd show it to Fox, and if they liked it, he'd show it to Fassy and see if he was available.

To summarize, I'd say Fassbender did hurt the movie's box office by being unhappy with earlier versions of the script, causing delays and questionable changes to the story.  Combined with the possibility that Fassbender is a turnoff to mainstream audiences, I think there is a good chance he did hurt this movie.
Quote from: PierreVW on May 26, 2017, 05:16:55 PM
Quote from: Protozoid on May 26, 2017, 05:01:14 PM
Between The Counselor, Steve Jobs, Assassin's Creed, and now Covenant, Fassbender has a pretty poor track record, box office wise, as a lead actor. He also played games with his availability, making sure he was busy on another movie if he didn't like the current draft of Prometheus 2. When you read about the delays, Scott always wanted to go next wit his draft, and Noomi seems out of the loop, but Fassbinder kept saying "it's about finding the right story" and was constantly busy until the direction changed to being an Alien movie where Dave is the lead and creates the xenos. I know I'm reading between the lines, here, but I think Fassbinder deserves some blame, maybe a lot of the blame. He allegedly didn't get along with Rapace, and surprise she was replaced by an actress Fassbinder enjoyed working with on Steve Jobs. I think Fassbinder played games trying to make Covenant into what he wanted.

My friend, that's your theory.

Sir Ridley wanted bigger stars for PROMETHEUS.

For example: Leonardo DiCaprio was the first choice for David. Michael Fassbender was his second choice.
Didn't Brad Pitt briefly want to play David, as well?  I imagine he was the first or second choice before Fassbender, but no matter.

Regardless of how responsible Fassbender ultimately was, I think there is plenty of evidence to support the conclusion that Fassbender, not Scott or Fox or Rapace, is the person who rejected the first several drafts of the script.

Scott Conover

God dammit. Why can't people just discuss the box office!

Scorpio

This is the Fassbender show, that's a fact.  Just like Weaver was the star of her Alien movies.  People complain about the Alien movies not having a male lead, but that's no longer the case (I know he's the antagonist, but that doesn't matter).  You won't get another female lead like Weaver, and nobody will watch an Alien film with a solo male protagonist.

SpeedyMaxx

There's absolutely no evidence Fassbender personally sabotaged the script or Noomi Rapace's involvement.

RandomNumber

There is an interesting analysis of Alien: Covenant from a Forbes contributor who has been covering the film industry for 28 years. (I think other people here have already referenced some information from this article.)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2017/05/21/box-office-alien-covenant-opens-below-alien-vs-predator/

He seems to suggest $300 million as a worldwide box office target for Covenant to be considered at all successful. My impression is that this is not meant to be taken too precisely, and that he is simply setting a basic expectation based on his industry expertise.

I think he is saying that a $300 million global total for Covenant wouldn't be great, but it could be good enough to justify producing R-rated science fiction films at modest budgets.

Prometheus garnered $403.4 million in 2012 U.S. dollars. BoxOfficeMojo currently has Covenant at $133.1 million globally. Unless there is a lag in the reporting of international data, it seems to me the movie has a long way to go.

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