Alien: Covenant Box Office Performance

[bb-15]

http://deadline.com/2017/05/alien-covenant-diary-of-a-wimpy-kid-everything-everything-box-office-previews-1202097673/

Pretty much 30% decline from Prometheus.

When you adjust for inflation, maybe, yeah. Even when you take into account that Covenant cost less, this one still appears to be performing below Prometheus.  AvP was probably massively more successful due to the budget.  I expect the next Alien movie will have a similar sized budget to AvP, and someone other than Ridley Scott directing. Jake Scott?

Hi Elijah;
From box office mojo;
- AVP did alright.
Production Budget: $60 million
Worldwide box office: $172,544,654   
That is box office which is about 2.87 times the production budget

Compare that with "Covenant" after its first weekend in the US. Realize it will make more money in theaters after this.
Production Budget: $97 million
To match AVP multiply that by 2.87 which = about $278 million.
I'm certain that "Covenant" will make more than that in theaters.
Currently its Worldwide box office is at:    $117,881,862.
And there is a long way to go.

True, but I was only looking at opening weekends, because those are the only numbers we have.  In terms of opening weekends, AvP did substantially better, nearly $12 million more when adjusted for inflation.  It's $13 million below Prometheus, and it's dropping faster, too...

Yes Elijah, but in the end the number which counts the most is the final box office.
I know that overall "Covenant" will not do as well as "Prometheus". 
But can "Covenant" do as well as "Passengers" which made $300 million? I think so.

That's all "Covenant" needs to get to, $300 million, to have a clear profit and then there will probably be another Alien film.
We will see.

[Ultramorph]

I'm starting to worry this is going to be the end of the franchise. 

[cucuchu]

I'm starting to worry this is going to be the end of the franchise. 

Not even close. It won't even be the end of Ridley making another I bet, and probably in a similar time line as he has planned.

[salomonj]

I don't like these numbers. If we don't get Ridleys complete trilogy, I'll fall into depression

[AGuy]

20th Century Fox very much wants to keep working with Ridley Scott. He's one of the few sure bets in the film world because he's one of the few filmmakers who does pictures of this size while still able to stay tightly on schedule & often under budget. If any other name filmmaker had been given THE MARTIAN they would have needed a $150 million budget.  Scott did it for just slightly north of $100 million.   Fox has produced/released every film he has done since PROMETHEUS in 2012 because there's very little risk of production woes leading to budget inflations.  They give him a number for a movie one year and two years later they just have to overcome that number in profit and they're good.  They won't be doing ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD with him but they still very much want Scott to direct THE CARTEL & that BATTLE OF BRITAIN film.  I'm sure an easy agreement can be made that Scott will do those films for Fox after he completes his ALIEN/DAVID saga.

I think the only real change is there won't be any more talk of "Doing four or six sequels".   I think next time someone interviews Scott about the future of the Alien series he'll openly say something along the lines of "We're doing one more.  We'll wrap up the David story & it will tie into the original Alien."  Which as much as I've liked/loved PROMETHEUS & ALIEN: COVENANT would be for the best.  Three films is a nice number.   

[cucuchu]

I don't like these numbers. If we don't get Ridleys complete trilogy, I'll fall into depression

The movie is not flopping that badly, and maybe not at all. The story will be completed I'm sure, the question is with what compromises. It will most likely be only one film now connecting to Alien after Covenant and Fox will likely have Ridley Scott ensure it meets a more broad appeal.

[BishopShouldGo]

They really thought RUN HIDE PRAY and a xenomorph would cure what ailed us. Yeesh.

[gantarat]

I don't like these numbers. If we don't get Ridleys complete trilogy, I'll fall into depression

The movie is not flopping that badly, and maybe not at all. The story will be completed I'm sure, the question is with what compromises. It will most likely be only one film now connecting to Alien after Covenant and Fox will likely have Ridley Scott ensure it meets a more broad appeal.

go action route like aliens ? i don't think he okay with that.

[cucuchu]

I don't like these numbers. If we don't get Ridleys complete trilogy, I'll fall into depression

The movie is not flopping that badly, and maybe not at all. The story will be completed I'm sure, the question is with what compromises. It will most likely be only one film now connecting to Alien after Covenant and Fox will likely have Ridley Scott ensure it meets a more broad appeal.

go action route like aliens ? i don't think he okay with that.

There are other ways, so long as you have some decent set pieces and a substantial payoff towards the end (like the queen in Aliens). Not saying it needs to be that, but just something that leaves people in awe. And for the love of all that is decent, no more aliens getting shot out of airlocks or impaling themselves.

[jonathancrk]

Ridley Scott is an industry giant, akin to a Spielberg or a Cameron (not only him as a director, but as a producer for his film/TV company and his advertising business. If he wants to continue doing Alien films, I frankly think the studio will let him do it. The only question will be how much budget will be allocated to him, and I doubt that would be an issue since he's very well-known to keep costs within or below budget. That's why I think the studios trust him, regardless of whether his films make money or not. Plus Scott's films tend to have a long shelf-life in ancillary industries such as DVDs/Blu-Rays. If he wants to do a Director's Cut of Alien: Covenant (or even Prometheus), it's likely these versions will sell well.

I really wouldn't worry too much about the box office performance right now. It's probably likely at worst the film will break even and make money via TV rights or off-line media. The bulk of the box office will likely be taken from overseas too.

Just my two-cents worth ...

[Noah]

They spent $22.35 million on tv ads alone.

And if people still don't know about this movie, then Fox failed miserably in getting the word out there. Personally, I don't think they did. I think GoTG2 is what people want to see more of. Covenant is very grim, and that could hurt its take in as well.

I don't think they did either. It was just an example to explain that while we're talking about huge marketing costs,there're actually people-and I'm talking about "BO junkies"- who consider the marketing poor. I also agree about GOTG. It's true that it's the third week,but it's a family-friendly movie. It's the kind of films that many people choose to see in theaters with their children. The more adult-oriented stuff is watched at home because tickets are increasingly expensive.

They spent $22.35 million on tv ads alone.

And if people still don't know about this movie, then Fox failed miserably in getting the word out there. Personally, I don't think they did. I think GoTG2 is what people want to see more of. Covenant is very grim, and that could hurt its take in as well.

If $22.35 million is the TV ad number for "Covenant", then the total marketing budget for the movie will not be more than $50 million.
This reasonable cost would be more support that "Covenant" should make a profit in theaters.

I'm sorry but you are just wrong. The marketing and distribution was very much in line with known 100 million dollar efforts.

It is what it is. Honestly the ad cost is much higher than other large tentople 100-150 million dollar campaigns.

Covenant will most likely not make any profit at all in the theatres. Normally that isn't a huge deal but they really think they have a tent pole franchise here and they thought they had fixed their problems with Prometheus under performing.

If you've some sources,I'd like to see them. 22M for tv ads seems reasonable enough. Now,my point was that I don't really think they've spent that much on marketing,above all when they've kept budget costs much lower than Prometheus.
Also,Prometheus is seen as a profitable movie and a financial success for the franchise. I've never seen anyone claiming that Prometheus undeperformed,because the Alien franchise has always been a niche franchise. Its 50M opening was considered a very good result and this gives a precise idea about what were the real expectations. The point is that,higher budget aside,they surely spent a lot of money on marketing. Also,the movie performed well but if I recall correctly was also quite frontloaded with considerable drops. So,the final gross was still on the "positive/it's a success"  side,but there were already signes that didn't inspire much confidence (besides the mixed reactions).
For this reason I can see Fox trying to keep all the marketing costs much lower than Prometheus.
I'm calculating the break even point with the usual 2,5X budget rule,which is not perfect science,of course. And we should also keep in mind that a studio like Fox has many backdoor deals as well.

[whiterabbit]

I'm starting to worry this is going to be the end of the franchise. 

Not even close. It won't even be the end of Ridley making another I bet, and probably in a similar time line as he has planned.

I think there will be at least one more but yea, I'm worried too.

[PierreVW]

It's made it's budget back, but Fox will no doubt be interfering in the follow up big time. I'll be surprised if Ridley directs again - he'll be producer of course, but I can see Nicolas Refn or even Matt Reeves sinking their teeth into this.

A:C isn't a poor film, it's just average with some intriguing moments. But if you really want to re-ignite the franchise, you need Ripley back for one last stand, one last battle against the xeno's...and the corporate suits!

No, it did not.  People need to stop saying this...   it hasn't made half of it back of just the production cost, let alone advertising and distribution.

I suppose you are happy.

I really doubt they greenlight Neil Blomkamp version.

They are going to kill Alien franchise for 5-7 years.

[MrRipley]

It sort of made 40 mill the other 4 mill came from previews so some people saw it v early.

[Gash]

... if you really want to re-ignite the franchise, you need Ripley back for one last stand, one last battle against the xeno's...and the corporate suits!

Get away from my Zimmer frame you bitch!