Alien: Covenant Box Office Performance

[Robopadna]

I wonder how well Wonder Woman is going to do. There's got to be some real trepidation from people about DC films now.

WW is REALLY odd.  There are forecasts for an opening around 65 million all the way up to 100+ (all domestic predictions).  The DC cinematic universe is in a really weird place.  Like you said, there is a feeling of getting burned that could impact the box office, but I have yet to see it actually happen.  BvS and SS both opened to incredibly high numbers despite a fairly poor opinion among both critics and fans.  You certainly saw bad multipliers, in BvS especially, that led to lower totals but they market their films well and there is clearly an interested audience.

I have to imagine it will open up to closer to 100 than 65 simply due to the bullet proof nature of opening weekends for comic book movies.  If it honestly hits around 60 and has the normal DC multiplier, that universe is in a lot of trouble.  I would imagine they will release the first JL and probably aquaman (which I think has already started filming) but then sit and rethink their approach.

(none of the DC movies have done all that well for this and other reasons

They actually open VERY well.  If there is one thing WB seems to be doing right, it's building hype for their movies.

The Pirates movies have done progressively less in take with each sequel

I don't know.  The WW grosses are 655, 1066, 963, 1046...   that is certainly not a decreasing trend.  Depp is a HUGE international draw.  Domestically they are down but that franchise is a juggernaut compared to Alien.

They did well opening weekend and then quickly fell off the radar.  That is the DC curse.  Oh and Fantastic Four and Green Lantern.  DC is at best 50% hit and 50% miss.

Fantastic Four isn't a DC property but it is also not under the Disney umbrella for marvel.  Fox I think has it?  They simply have no idea what to do with that property.  I honestly think the best FF movie was the Roger Corman one that was made simply to retain the rights

It depends on what you mean by hit or miss...  in the financial sense they aren't really as big of a miss as people tend to think they are.  Critically they are pretty massive misses.  I also don't personally like any of their cinematic universe (the three movies in it) to date.

If you branch outside into the Nolan/Bale trilogy, the story is entirely different.  They are all vast financial successes and critically acclaimed.  One of them essentially defining the heights that a super hero movie can reach.

Anyway you slice it, Covenant has a tough hill to climb.  I just do not see Alien as the draw that their budgets would suggest it is.  I love the series but you are really asking a lot of a violent hard R film to make back that kind of money.

[cucuchu]

I wonder how well Wonder Woman is going to do. There's got to be some real trepidation from people about DC films now.

WW is REALLY odd.  There are forecasts for an opening around 65 million all the way up to 100+ (all domestic predictions).  The DC cinematic universe is in a really weird place.  Like you said, there is a feeling of getting burned that could impact the box office, but I have yet to see it actually happen.  BvS and SS both opened to incredibly high numbers despite a fairly poor opinion among both critics and fans.  You certainly saw bad multipliers, in BvS especially, that led to lower totals but they market their films well and there is clearly an interested audience.

I have to imagine it will open up to closer to 100 than 65 simply due to the bullet proof nature of opening weekends for comic book movies.  If it honestly hits around 60 and has the normal DC multiplier, that universe is in a lot of trouble.  I would imagine they will release the first JL and probably aquaman (which I think has already started filming) but then sit and rethink their approach.

(none of the DC movies have done all that well for this and other reasons

They actually open VERY well.  If there is one thing WB seems to be doing right, it's building hype for their movies.

The Pirates movies have done progressively less in take with each sequel

I don't know.  The WW grosses are 655, 1066, 963, 1046...   that is certainly not a decreasing trend.  Depp is a HUGE international draw.  Domestically they are down but that franchise is a juggernaut compared to Alien.

They did well opening weekend and then quickly fell off the radar.  That is the DC curse.  Oh and Fantastic Four and Green Lantern.  DC is at best 50% hit and 50% miss.

Fantastic Four isn't a DC property but it is also not under the Disney umbrella for marvel.  Fox I think has it?  They simply have no idea what to do with that property.  I honestly think the best FF movie was the Roger Corman one that was made simply to retain the rights

It depends on what you mean by hit or miss...  in the financial sense they aren't really as big of a miss as people tend to think they are.  Critically they are pretty massive misses.  I also don't personally like any of their cinematic universe (the three movies in it) to date.

If you branch outside into the Nolan/Bale trilogy, the story is entirely different.  They are all vast financial successes and critically acclaimed.  One of them essentially defining the heights that a super hero movie can reach.

Anyway you slice it, Covenant has a tough hill to climb.  I just do not see Alien as the draw that their budgets would suggest it is.  I love the series but you are really asking a lot of a violent hard R film to make back that kind of money.

There is a way...

First, forget anything you know about the scrapped Alien 5 and projects anyone else is working on. This is all hypothetical.

New big budget alien movie
Colonial marines
Sigourney Weaver
Ridley Scott and James Cameron attached to it somehow (or another well established accredited director)
2 or 3 other well known actors/actresses
Bishop

You place this anywhere in the timeline post-Aliens. Guarantee you it slaughters at the box office. Will it happen ? Not a chance. But it would be huge at the box office, so there are ways to make violent R rated films with large budgets work.


×Que everyone telling me to get my head out of the 80's, no way anyone cares about this hypothetical movie anymore

[Robopadna]

I wonder how well Wonder Woman is going to do. There's got to be some real trepidation from people about DC films now.

WW is REALLY odd.  There are forecasts for an opening around 65 million all the way up to 100+ (all domestic predictions).  The DC cinematic universe is in a really weird place.  Like you said, there is a feeling of getting burned that could impact the box office, but I have yet to see it actually happen.  BvS and SS both opened to incredibly high numbers despite a fairly poor opinion among both critics and fans.  You certainly saw bad multipliers, in BvS especially, that led to lower totals but they market their films well and there is clearly an interested audience.

I have to imagine it will open up to closer to 100 than 65 simply due to the bullet proof nature of opening weekends for comic book movies.  If it honestly hits around 60 and has the normal DC multiplier, that universe is in a lot of trouble.  I would imagine they will release the first JL and probably aquaman (which I think has already started filming) but then sit and rethink their approach.

(none of the DC movies have done all that well for this and other reasons

They actually open VERY well.  If there is one thing WB seems to be doing right, it's building hype for their movies.

The Pirates movies have done progressively less in take with each sequel

I don't know.  The WW grosses are 655, 1066, 963, 1046...   that is certainly not a decreasing trend.  Depp is a HUGE international draw.  Domestically they are down but that franchise is a juggernaut compared to Alien.

They did well opening weekend and then quickly fell off the radar.  That is the DC curse.  Oh and Fantastic Four and Green Lantern.  DC is at best 50% hit and 50% miss.

Fantastic Four isn't a DC property but it is also not under the Disney umbrella for marvel.  Fox I think has it?  They simply have no idea what to do with that property.  I honestly think the best FF movie was the Roger Corman one that was made simply to retain the rights

It depends on what you mean by hit or miss...  in the financial sense they aren't really as big of a miss as people tend to think they are.  Critically they are pretty massive misses.  I also don't personally like any of their cinematic universe (the three movies in it) to date.

If you branch outside into the Nolan/Bale trilogy, the story is entirely different.  They are all vast financial successes and critically acclaimed.  One of them essentially defining the heights that a super hero movie can reach.

Anyway you slice it, Covenant has a tough hill to climb.  I just do not see Alien as the draw that their budgets would suggest it is.  I love the series but you are really asking a lot of a violent hard R film to make back that kind of money.

There is a way...

First, forget anything you know about the scrapped Alien 5 and projects anyone else is working on. This is all hypothetical.

New big budget alien movie
Colonial marines
Sigourney Weaver
Ridley Scott and James Cameron attached to it somehow (or another well established accredited director)
2 or 3 other well known actors/actresses
Bishop

You place this anywhere in the timeline post-Aliens. Guarantee you it slaughters at the box office. Will it happen ? Not a chance. But it would be huge at the box office, so there are ways to make violent R rated films with large budgets work.


×Que everyone telling me to get my head out of the 80's, no way anyone cares about this hypothetical movie anymore

I'm not so sure it would slaughter it anymore.  I think the appeal of Ripley is well worn out (it certainly didn't generate any massive returns on 3 or 4) and Aliens as a brand would probably not support that budget (Cameron does not work cheap).  It will only ever be speculation at this point though because, like you said, it will never happen.

I am not saying it is impossible for violent R rated movies to have large budgets and make their money back, but it's just about there.  Outside of the Exorcist (in 1973) there simply hasn't been any R rated violent horror movie that would even come close in box office returns to equal out Covenant's budget, let alone a larger one.

[cucuchu]

I wonder how well Wonder Woman is going to do. There's got to be some real trepidation from people about DC films now.

WW is REALLY odd.  There are forecasts for an opening around 65 million all the way up to 100+ (all domestic predictions).  The DC cinematic universe is in a really weird place.  Like you said, there is a feeling of getting burned that could impact the box office, but I have yet to see it actually happen.  BvS and SS both opened to incredibly high numbers despite a fairly poor opinion among both critics and fans.  You certainly saw bad multipliers, in BvS especially, that led to lower totals but they market their films well and there is clearly an interested audience.

I have to imagine it will open up to closer to 100 than 65 simply due to the bullet proof nature of opening weekends for comic book movies.  If it honestly hits around 60 and has the normal DC multiplier, that universe is in a lot of trouble.  I would imagine they will release the first JL and probably aquaman (which I think has already started filming) but then sit and rethink their approach.

(none of the DC movies have done all that well for this and other reasons

They actually open VERY well.  If there is one thing WB seems to be doing right, it's building hype for their movies.

The Pirates movies have done progressively less in take with each sequel

I don't know.  The WW grosses are 655, 1066, 963, 1046...   that is certainly not a decreasing trend.  Depp is a HUGE international draw.  Domestically they are down but that franchise is a juggernaut compared to Alien.

They did well opening weekend and then quickly fell off the radar.  That is the DC curse.  Oh and Fantastic Four and Green Lantern.  DC is at best 50% hit and 50% miss.

Fantastic Four isn't a DC property but it is also not under the Disney umbrella for marvel.  Fox I think has it?  They simply have no idea what to do with that property.  I honestly think the best FF movie was the Roger Corman one that was made simply to retain the rights

It depends on what you mean by hit or miss...  in the financial sense they aren't really as big of a miss as people tend to think they are.  Critically they are pretty massive misses.  I also don't personally like any of their cinematic universe (the three movies in it) to date.

If you branch outside into the Nolan/Bale trilogy, the story is entirely different.  They are all vast financial successes and critically acclaimed.  One of them essentially defining the heights that a super hero movie can reach.

Anyway you slice it, Covenant has a tough hill to climb.  I just do not see Alien as the draw that their budgets would suggest it is.  I love the series but you are really asking a lot of a violent hard R film to make back that kind of money.

There is a way...

First, forget anything you know about the scrapped Alien 5 and projects anyone else is working on. This is all hypothetical.

New big budget alien movie
Colonial marines
Sigourney Weaver
Ridley Scott and James Cameron attached to it somehow (or another well established accredited director)
2 or 3 other well known actors/actresses
Bishop

You place this anywhere in the timeline post-Aliens. Guarantee you it slaughters at the box office. Will it happen ? Not a chance. But it would be huge at the box office, so there are ways to make violent R rated films with large budgets work.


×Que everyone telling me to get my head out of the 80's, no way anyone cares about this hypothetical movie anymore

I'm not so sure it would slaughter it anymore.  I think the appeal of Ripley is well worn out (it certainly didn't generate any massive returns on 3 or 4) and Aliens as a brand would probably not support that budget (Cameron does not work cheap).  It will only ever be speculation at this point though because, like you said, it will never happen.

I am not saying it is impossible for violent R rated movies to have large budgets and make their money back, but it's just about there.  Outside of the Exorcist (in 1973) there simply hasn't been any R rated violent horror movie that would even come close in box office returns to equal out Covenant's budget, let alone a larger one.

I concur...

So, what is your thought on the viability of an Alien franchise premium TV series on HBO...with the production value of say, Game of Thrones? It could focus on any number of things, still retain the sci-fi horror/action elements, allow for extensive character development, and expand the universe.

[Robopadna]

I concur...

So, what is your thought on the viability of an Alien franchise premium TV series on HBO...with the production value of say, Game of Thrones? It could focus on any number of things, still retain the sci-fi horror/action elements, allow for extensive character development, and expand the universe.

Cleaning up the embedded quotes a bit

It's an interesting idea but the problem is, in my opinion, you would have to have a hook to watching that show and the hook can't really revolve around aliens.  Game of Thrones largely revolves around interpersonal conflict and political maneuvering.  Even though you have the consistent threat of white walkers, they actually play a very small role in the show itself.

I think that in order to make it work, you would have to do a ton of world building.  Maybe you focus on artificial intelligence or, more likely, the inner workings and political aspects of Weyland Yutani.  Maybe set it after Weyland and Vickers left for the Prometheus expedition and watch the power struggle that happens.  Will people want to watch that?  I don't know...   it's certainly a different way of using the Alien brand but I think it's the only feasible one.

Focus very little on the Aliens themselves because constant battles will be expensive to produce and, quite honestly, boring to watch.

[cucuchu]

I concur...

So, what is your thought on the viability of an Alien franchise premium TV series on HBO...with the production value of say, Game of Thrones? It could focus on any number of things, still retain the sci-fi horror/action elements, allow for extensive character development, and expand the universe.

Cleaning up the embedded quotes a bit

It's an interesting idea but the problem is, in my opinion, you would have to have a hook to watching that show and the hook can't really revolve around aliens.  Game of Thrones largely revolves around interpersonal conflict and political maneuvering.  Even though you have the consistent threat of white walkers, they actually play a very small role in the show itself.

I think that in order to make it work, you would have to do a ton of world building.  Maybe you focus on artificial intelligence or, more likely, the inner workings and political aspects of Weyland Yutani.  Maybe set it after Weyland and Vickers left for the Prometheus expedition and watch the power struggle that happens.  Will people want to watch that?  I don't know...   it's certainly a different way of using the Alien brand but I think it's the only feasible one.

Focus very little on the Aliens themselves because constant battles will be expensive to produce and, quite honestly, boring to watch.

Agreed and any alien material would need be few and far between and serve a purpose. Good input though...I am going to make a separate thread here in a couple days about it actually, since I do not want to derail this one.

Back on topic, the optimist in me is thinking 55 million opening weekend in the US. see a lot of buzz and good reviews going around so this film just may hit the domestic cinemas in a full on sprint. Plus 53 or so other markets get their AC debut this weekend too. By Sunday, I am going to say: 170 million total box office

[Robopadna]

I concur...

So, what is your thought on the viability of an Alien franchise premium TV series on HBO...with the production value of say, Game of Thrones? It could focus on any number of things, still retain the sci-fi horror/action elements, allow for extensive character development, and expand the universe.

Cleaning up the embedded quotes a bit

It's an interesting idea but the problem is, in my opinion, you would have to have a hook to watching that show and the hook can't really revolve around aliens.  Game of Thrones largely revolves around interpersonal conflict and political maneuvering.  Even though you have the consistent threat of white walkers, they actually play a very small role in the show itself.

I think that in order to make it work, you would have to do a ton of world building.  Maybe you focus on artificial intelligence or, more likely, the inner workings and political aspects of Weyland Yutani.  Maybe set it after Weyland and Vickers left for the Prometheus expedition and watch the power struggle that happens.  Will people want to watch that?  I don't know...   it's certainly a different way of using the Alien brand but I think it's the only feasible one.

Focus very little on the Aliens themselves because constant battles will be expensive to produce and, quite honestly, boring to watch.

Agreed and any alien material would need be few and far between and serve a purpose. Good input though...I am going to make a separate thread here in a couple days about it actually, since I do not want to derail this one.

Back on topic, the optimist in me is thinking 55 million opening weekend in the US. see a lot of buzz and good reviews going around so this film just may hit the domestic cinemas in a full on sprint. Plus 53 or so other markets get their AC debut this weekend too. By Sunday, I am going to say: 170 million total box office

Only speaking from a domestic stand point but I think everyone involved would be very happy with a 55 million opening.  I think it still means it's going to lose money, but 55 is a really strong opening for this type of property, especially after it was, perception wise, damaged by Prometheus (even though I thought that movie was far better).

[Spidey3121]

I wonder how well Wonder Woman is going to do. There's got to be some real trepidation from people about DC films now.

I have trepidation when it comes to the DCEU, but it's entirely possible general audiences will only see it as a Wonder Woman film. The FIRST WW film to boot. As someone else said, tracking is somewhat scattershot, but we're still 2 weekends out. It doesn't need to pull in BvS or even Suicide Squad money to be a hit. It's more important for the film & DCEU at large that the film is good to help reassure fans that are on the fence, especially with Justice League coming out less than 6 months later.

-----

As for discussion of Covenant's opening weekend, I'd love to see a $55 mil opening weekend on the domestic front, but I highly doubt it. That would represent an increase over Prometheus & all tracking points to an opening in the $35-$40 mil range, though I would frankly find that somewhat disappointing. FOX would do backflips if it opened to $55 mil.

[Noah]

Seems to be a large influx of positive reviews from Ebert.com, New York Times and other critics with a lot of pull here in the United States (causing RT to go up from 75 to 77),  so that might give some good momentum for Alien Covenant heading into its debut week here.

Right now the estimates are varying wildly.  Fox is playing it safe and trying to really low ball it to avoid embarrassment and are apparently predicting a 35 million dollar opening.  Other sites are predicting up to a 50 million dollar opening.

It's somewhat interesting to note that Fox took the same approach with Prometheus and estimated an opening in the 30s and it actually opened to about 51 million.

Where have you read it?


Variety:

"Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2" has soared past its competition for the past two weekends. But will Ridley Scott's "Alien: Covenant" be the film to upset the trend?

It appears so, according to early estimates which project Fox's "Prometheus" sequel will make anywhere from $40 million to $45 million during its opening weekend. The studio is projecting earnings on the low end of the range. "Prometheus" made $51 million when it opened in June 2012 in the second slot behind "Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted."

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/box-office-alien-covenant-guardians-of-the-galaxy-2-1202430915/


LA Times:

In an era of aging franchises, "Alien" theoretically represents a scary scenario for a studio. "Alien: Covenant" is the eighth film the 20th Century Fox property, counting the two widely panned "Alien Vs. Predator" movies. It's also a sequel to 2012's "Prometheus," a heady quasi-prequel to the original 1979 "Alien." (Still with us?)

Nonetheless, "Covenant" has generated strong interest among moviegoers, thanks to heightened anticipation among "Alien" fans stoked by gruesome marketing and generally positive reviews. Yes, the philosophical "Prometheus" confused many "Alien" fans with an origin-of-man back story that conspicuously lacked the famous creatures designed by surrealist H.R. Giger. In an about-face, the trailers for "Covenant" put the xenomorphs and facehuggers front and center.

The movie is poised to generate a strong $40 million to $50 million in ticket sales in the U.S. and Canada this weekend, according to people who have reviewed audience tracking surveys. That would be a similar result to "Prometheus" five years ago, which ended up collecting $400 million worldwide after opening with $51 million domestically.

http://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-movie-projector-alien-20170516-htmlstory.html

[SuicideDoors]

http://deadline.com/2017/05/alien-covenant-weekend-box-office-projections-wimpy-kid-guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-2-everything-everything-1202096372/

http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-forecast-alien-covenant-diary-wimpy-kid-long-haul-everything-everything/

Alien: Covenant   Fox   $35,900,000   $35,900,000   NEW

I hope Pro Box Office are wrong, but yeah, I've seen the $35mill figure in a couple of places. I don't know if I'm naive but I can't see it doing LESS than Alien vs Predator's 38mill bow in August 2004.

At least Covenant has critical backing behind it. If word of mouth over the opening weekend is good whatever the first three days takings is, hopefully it'll have legs in the long run.

[Robopadna]

Seems to be a large influx of positive reviews from Ebert.com, New York Times and other critics with a lot of pull here in the United States (causing RT to go up from 75 to 77),  so that might give some good momentum for Alien Covenant heading into its debut week here.

Right now the estimates are varying wildly.  Fox is playing it safe and trying to really low ball it to avoid embarrassment and are apparently predicting a 35 million dollar opening.  Other sites are predicting up to a 50 million dollar opening.

It's somewhat interesting to note that Fox took the same approach with Prometheus and estimated an opening in the 30s and it actually opened to about 51 million.

Where have you read it?


Variety:

"Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2" has soared past its competition for the past two weekends. But will Ridley Scott's "Alien: Covenant" be the film to upset the trend?

It appears so, according to early estimates which project Fox's "Prometheus" sequel will make anywhere from $40 million to $45 million during its opening weekend. The studio is projecting earnings on the low end of the range. "Prometheus" made $51 million when it opened in June 2012 in the second slot behind "Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted."

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/box-office-alien-covenant-guardians-of-the-galaxy-2-1202430915/


LA Times:

In an era of aging franchises, "Alien" theoretically represents a scary scenario for a studio. "Alien: Covenant" is the eighth film the 20th Century Fox property, counting the two widely panned "Alien Vs. Predator" movies. It's also a sequel to 2012's "Prometheus," a heady quasi-prequel to the original 1979 "Alien." (Still with us?)

Nonetheless, "Covenant" has generated strong interest among moviegoers, thanks to heightened anticipation among "Alien" fans stoked by gruesome marketing and generally positive reviews. Yes, the philosophical "Prometheus" confused many "Alien" fans with an origin-of-man back story that conspicuously lacked the famous creatures designed by surrealist H.R. Giger. In an about-face, the trailers for "Covenant" put the xenomorphs and facehuggers front and center.

The movie is poised to generate a strong $40 million to $50 million in ticket sales in the U.S. and Canada this weekend, according to people who have reviewed audience tracking surveys. That would be a similar result to "Prometheus" five years ago, which ended up collecting $400 million worldwide after opening with $51 million domestically.

http://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-movie-projector-alien-20170516-htmlstory.html

The articles you quoted put it at about 40 so it's entirely possible they feel more confident in its performance now.

The other isn't an estimate from fox.

[razeak]

Going to go see it Friday or Saturday. I can't wait. Someone said it felt like a Hammer homage. That piques my interest even more.

[Spidey3121]

Studios always low-ball to save face if a film doesn't open as well as projected. Rival studios will sometimes try to do the opposite. $35 seems too low, honestly, given that Prometheus opened w/ $51 mil 5 years ago. I know that film was divisive, but the focus on the actual Xeno & having Alien in the title is supposed to balance that.

[Protozoid]

Studios always low-ball to save face if a film doesn't open as well as projected. Rival studios will sometimes try to do the opposite. $35 seems too low, honestly, given that Prometheus opened w/ $51 mil 5 years ago. I know that film was divisive, but the focus on the actual Xeno & having Alien in the title is supposed to balance that.

That might result in Resurrection-level profits, rather than Prometheus or The Martian profits. In fact, when you adjust for inflation, each Alien movie was earning less... until Prometheus. My impression is that the Alien franchise is dying, and that Prometheus reversed the downward trends with critics, fans, and profits by jettisoning the familiar iconography and rebooting as something more cutting edge.

[Spidey3121]

Studios always low-ball to save face if a film doesn't open as well as projected. Rival studios will sometimes try to do the opposite. $35 seems too low, honestly, given that Prometheus opened w/ $51 mil 5 years ago. I know that film was divisive, but the focus on the actual Xeno & having Alien in the title is supposed to balance that.

That might result in Resurrection-level profits, rather than Prometheus or The Martian profits. In fact, when you adjust for inflation, each Alien movie was earning less... until Prometheus. My impression is that the Alien franchise is dying, and that Prometheus reversed the downward trends with critics, fans, and profits by jettisoning the familiar iconography and rebooting as something more cutting edge.

Adjusted for inflation, yes, it's a downward trend. Also working against it is the budget for each film, excluding the AVP films, increased. If the numbers being reported are accurate, Covenant is the first film to have a lower budget than it's predecessor. On the positive side of things, the international earnings for each film has increased.

A chart from Box Office Mojo: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=alien.htm