Alien: Covenant Box Office Performance

[juxtapose]

Well if covenant is sitting at 42 million a couple of days ago and it's opening in over 50 countries this weekend including the USA. .where do you folks think is gonna be by monday. .i am thinking about 120-150 ?.
Oh and i have a queation about kong:skull island. .it cost 185 to make, marketing excluded . .and it's basicly at the end of it's run. .sitting at 564 with alot of the total coning from china. .did it make a profit?

[Robopadna]

Well if covenant is sitting at 42 million a couple of days ago and it's opening in over 50 countries this weekend including the USA. .where do you folks think is gonna be by monday. .i am thinking about 120?.
Oh and i have a queation about kong:skull island. .it cost 185 to make, marketing excluded . .and it's basicly at the end of it's run. .sitting at 564 with alot of the total coning from china. .did it make a profit?

People are only talking about the US.  It's the single largest market.

The general line of thought followed by people predicting a low opening is that US market somewhat mirrors the Australian market and that showed a big drop off from Prometheus.

The simple answer for Kong is 'no' in regards to the box office.  It came up considerably short.  Like I said before though, there are a lot of other revenue streams that can really add up (and other costs associated with them).  My guess is that it will roughly break even or take an acceptable loss. 

They are probably ok with the loss because they view it as building up a foundation for their cinematic universe where they will have Godzilla fight king kong, etc.

[cucuchu]

I don't know much studios take in from China ticket sales but if its a comparable 45 to 50%, and they did not spend over $100 million on advertising, then it either made a slight profit or will break even by the end of its run. Digital and blue ray/ DVD should be all profit though.

Well if covenant is sitting at 42 million a couple of days ago and it's opening in over 50 countries this weekend including the USA. .where do you folks think is gonna be by monday. .i am thinking about 120-150 ?.
Oh and i have a queation about kong:skull island. .it cost 185 to make, marketing excluded . .and it's basicly at the end of it's run. .sitting at 564 with alot of the total coning from china. .did it make a profit?

[oberonqa]

Seems to be a large influx of positive reviews from Ebert.com, New York Times and other critics with a lot of pull here in the United States (causing RT to go up from 75 to 77),  so that might give some good momentum for Alien Covenant heading into its debut week here.

Wow!  That Ebert review especially is high praise.  All the more impressive considering how he hated the original Alien way back in 79.  This review alone will help fill seats, as I know a lot of people take Ebert's reviews very seriously and for him to make statements like "This is one of Scott's best-directed movies and one of his most entertaining overall" and "It's rare to see such a combination of technical mastery and wicked joy in a film by a director who's been working as long as Scott." is quite powerful.

Well the man is quite dead at the moment so its not his statement, but reviewers affiliated with him hold a good bit of sway.

Seems to be a large influx of positive reviews from Ebert.com, New York Times and other critics with a lot of pull here in the United States (causing RT to go up from 75 to 77),  so that might give some good momentum for Alien Covenant heading into its debut week here.

Right now the estimates are varying wildly.  Fox is playing it safe and trying to really low ball it to avoid embarrassment and are apparently predicting a 35 million dollar opening.  Other sites are predicting up to a 50 million dollar opening.

It's somewhat interesting to note that Fox took the same approach with Prometheus and estimated an opening in the 30s and it actually opened to about 51 million.

Ah yes, I do remember this! I suppose I can understand the approach, but it could potentially do much better and I am optimistically going to predict a 54 million opening weekend. I have noticed some apathy amongst coworkers and friends towards Guardians of the Galaxy 2,  and a lot of them excited for Alien Covenant (a few who are not even familiar with the franchise and do not even know about Prometheus). So we will see... I will be there opening night tomorrow at the 10pm showing and then again Saturday afternoon with my wife, so how packed the cinema is will be a good gauge for me.

I wasn't aware that he died.  I knew Siskel had passed, but somehow I missed the news that Ebert had passed as well.  Damn

[Robopadna]

I don't know much studios take in from China ticket sales but if its a comparable 45 to 50%, and they did not spend over $100 million on advertising, then it either made a slight profit or will break even by the end of its run. Digital and blue ray/ DVD should be all profit though.

The Chinese market is roughly a 33% take for the studio.  They spent way more than 100 on advertising.

Digital and physical media have costs associated with them as well (it is expensive to create, produce, advertise and ship media).  They are absolutely a good additional revenue stream but they are not 'free money'.

[gantarat]

next next next week have

May 26 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
Jun 2 - Wonder Woman
Jun 9 - The Mummy (?)

why i have bad feeling about this ?

[cucuchu]

I don't know much studios take in from China ticket sales but if its a comparable 45 to 50%, and they did not spend over $100 million on advertising, then it either made a slight profit or will break even by the end of its run. Digital and blue ray/ DVD should be all profit though.

The Chinese market is roughly a 33% take for the studio.  They spent way more than 100 on advertising.

Digital and physical media have costs associated with them as well (it is expensive to create, produce, advertise and ship media).  They are absolutely a good additional revenue stream but they are not 'free money'.

Thanks for the clarrification. So Kong is far from breaking even then.

[gantarat]

I don't know much studios take in from China ticket sales but if its a comparable 45 to 50%, and they did not spend over $100 million on advertising, then it either made a slight profit or will break even by the end of its run. Digital and blue ray/ DVD should be all profit though.

The Chinese market is roughly a 33% take for the studio.  They spent way more than 100 on advertising.

Digital and physical media have costs associated with them as well (it is expensive to create, produce, advertise and ship media).  They are absolutely a good additional revenue stream but they are not 'free money'.

Thanks for the clarrification. So Kong is far from breaking even then.

Shame i really like Kong.

[Robopadna]

I don't know much studios take in from China ticket sales but if its a comparable 45 to 50%, and they did not spend over $100 million on advertising, then it either made a slight profit or will break even by the end of its run. Digital and blue ray/ DVD should be all profit though.

The Chinese market is roughly a 33% take for the studio.  They spent way more than 100 on advertising.

Digital and physical media have costs associated with them as well (it is expensive to create, produce, advertise and ship media).  They are absolutely a good additional revenue stream but they are not 'free money'.

Thanks for the clarrification. So Kong is far from breaking even then.

From box office alone?  No, they are considerably short of it by my guess.  It hasn't had any dvd sales yet but they have sold tv rights...   but that market isn't what it used to be.  My guess is that they are still short and will probably end up being a little short, or roughly break even, when all is said and done.

[cucuchu]

next next next week have

May 26 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
Jun 2 - Wonder Woman
Jun 9 - The Mummy (?)

why i have bad feeling about this ?

Pirates I am not too worried about...different target audiences. Wonder Woman will take attention off Alien for sure, but still different enough for both to coexist. The Mummy, likewise, but at least Alien will be the one R rated big name film out, do that helps.

All in all I believe it comes down to a strong opening weekend and positive word of mouth/social media trending etc keeping the momentum strong if Alien is to do well at the box office.

[Corporal Hicks]

I wonder how well Wonder Woman is going to do. There's got to be some real trepidation from people about DC films now.

[juxtapose]

thanks for your answers. . .yeah i thought kong did'nt make any profit and i was curious why the media did not notice. .

[oberonqa]

next next next week have

May 26 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
Jun 2 - Wonder Woman
Jun 9 - The Mummy (?)

why i have bad feeling about this ?

Pirates I am not too worried about...different target audiences. Wonder Woman will take attention off Alien for sure, but still different enough for both to coexist. The Mummy, likewise, but at least Alien will be the one R rated big name film out, do that helps.

All in all I believe it comes down to a strong opening weekend and positive word of mouth/social media trending etc keeping the momentum strong if Alien is to do well at the box office.

I agree.  The Pirates movies have done progressively less in take with each sequel, so that probably won't pose a threat.  Wonder Woman, in addition to being a different kind of movie altogether, is also burdened by the fact it isn't a Marvel movie (none of the DC movies have done all that well for this and other reasons).  The Mummy is the only serious contender and honestly it's not much of a threat either due to being more of an adventure movie than a horror. 

I don't expect any serious competition until Transformers and Planet of the Apes.  Both of those, despite being different genre films, are going to draw audiences.  Thankfully by that point, AC will be winding down so the damage will be minimal I expect.

[Robopadna]

I wonder how well Wonder Woman is going to do. There's got to be some real trepidation from people about DC films now.

WW is REALLY odd.  There are forecasts for an opening around 65 million all the way up to 100+ (all domestic predictions).  The DC cinematic universe is in a really weird place.  Like you said, there is a feeling of getting burned that could impact the box office, but I have yet to see it actually happen.  BvS and SS both opened to incredibly high numbers despite a fairly poor opinion among both critics and fans.  You certainly saw bad multipliers, in BvS especially, that led to lower totals but they market their films well and there is clearly an interested audience.

I have to imagine it will open up to closer to 100 than 65 simply due to the bullet proof nature of opening weekends for comic book movies.  If it honestly hits around 60 and has the normal DC multiplier, that universe is in a lot of trouble.  I would imagine they will release the first JL and probably aquaman (which I think has already started filming) but then sit and rethink their approach.

(none of the DC movies have done all that well for this and other reasons

They actually open VERY well.  If there is one thing WB seems to be doing right, it's building hype for their movies.

The Pirates movies have done progressively less in take with each sequel

I don't know.  The WW grosses are 655, 1066, 963, 1046...   that is certainly not a decreasing trend.  Depp is a HUGE international draw.  Domestically they are down but that franchise is a juggernaut compared to Alien.

[oberonqa]

I wonder how well Wonder Woman is going to do. There's got to be some real trepidation from people about DC films now.

WW is REALLY odd.  There are forecasts for an opening around 65 million all the way up to 100+ (all domestic predictions).  The DC cinematic universe is in a really weird place.  Like you said, there is a feeling of getting burned that could impact the box office, but I have yet to see it actually happen.  BvS and SS both opened to incredibly high numbers despite a fairly poor opinion among both critics and fans.  You certainly saw bad multipliers, in BvS especially, that led to lower totals but they market their films well and there is clearly an interested audience.

I have to imagine it will open up to closer to 100 than 65 simply due to the bullet proof nature of opening weekends for comic book movies.  If it honestly hits around 60 and has the normal DC multiplier, that universe is in a lot of trouble.  I would imagine they will release the first JL and probably aquaman (which I think has already started filming) but then sit and rethink their approach.

(none of the DC movies have done all that well for this and other reasons

They actually open VERY well.  If there is one thing WB seems to be doing right, it's building hype for their movies.

The Pirates movies have done progressively less in take with each sequel

I don't know.  The WW grosses are 655, 1066, 963, 1046...   that is certainly not a decreasing trend.  Depp is a HUGE international draw.  Domestically they are down but that franchise is a juggernaut compared to Alien.

They did well opening weekend and then quickly fell off the radar.  That is the DC curse.  Oh and Fantastic Four and Green Lantern.  DC is at best 50% hit and 50% miss.