Quote from: Stolen on Jun 14, 2017, 05:53:12 AM
@robopadna
You're right, Covenant is a domestic and overall failure because it's half the amount of Prometheus! But with a budget of $100M, and if it works properly in China and Japan ($ 30M and $ 10M) Fox won't lose money. Still big dissapointing, but not a flop.
We must stop thinking that the promotional budget is refunded at the box office, it is absolutely false. The promo budget is always based on how much the movie will return in sales outside the BO, which are huge enough for blockbuster.
If we are talking about the box office then focus on the box office. The costs are the same. The promotional budget has nothing to do with the sales outside of the box office. It is spent before that ever happens (there are other costs like participations, residuals and production costs for digital and physical sales)
QuoteBroadcast TV rights (domestic and foreign) are generally very juicy for studios, between $100M and $200M for a blockbuster. And we can't neglect the home entertainment, the franchise Alien has always had an added value in this sector.
That is absolutely not the case in covenant. In no terms is this movie a blockbuster. Suicide Squad pulled in 150 million between foreign and domestic tv rights and then another 130 or so in rentals (there are costs associated with thoseas well, but not terribly high ones)
That movie was a giant blockbuster (something like 800 ww?). This movie will not even come close to that level of interest or sales. These numbers are not known (rental/buys can't be known yet) but I expect them to largely be in line with other comps.
QuoteAnd the merchandising for the Alien franchise is obviously less important than others like Star Wars or Marvel.
Yet the license sells very well, and the adult public always responds commercially to new products.
Some recent analysis basically shows if you aren't an animated kid film, comic book based movie, or star wars... your merchandise does nothing in terms of profit. Sure, Alien will generate more merch money than a movie without any merchandise (moonlight, for example), but it is insignificant.
Again, we are talking box office and this movie will not break even through that avenue. It's absolute flop in the domestic market virtually ensures that. Now there are other avenues a movie can make money, like you said, and other costs associated with them. It will probably break even through those avenues.
Overall Fox does not make movies and invest all that money to essentially break even. They want to actually turn a profit. They do love this franchise though and keep over valuing it relation to how audiences actually perceive it.
My guess is that if it even comes close to break even, they will let Ridley finish out the prequel trilogy.