Box Office Takings for The Predator

[Tetsujin]

$ 28,000,000 - 3-Day Wide Opening

$ 65,000,000 - Domestic Total


https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-predator-simple-favor-white-boy-rick-highlight-mid-september/

[MudButt]

Yikes. That seems low. Gonna really be based off of reviews and word of mouth for this one I think.

[Denton Smalls]

I'm really hoping this clears $100 million domestic for the sake of the future.

[skull-splitter]

http://boxoffice718.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/logo-1.png

$ 28,000,000 - 3-Day Wide Opening

$ 65,000,000 - Domestic Total


https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-predator-simple-favor-white-boy-rick-highlight-mid-september/

Not too bothered by any projection. Domestic is not always the best indicator...

[MudButt]

To be fair, tracking is almost always lower than what the movie ends up doing. It usually doesn't get accurate until about 2 weeks until the release.

[Corporal Hicks]

Split off from the Social Thread. We'll try to make sure the tracking continues to be updated in here. Shame to see it so low but hopefully it'll pick up or perform better. I really hope we don't get another lukewarm film or response like with Covenant.

[Dino21AvP]

That prediction is a little on the low side, but it's understandable given that none of the other films have really been huge hits at the box office.

This would be my prediction.

Opening Weekend: $35 - $45 million
Domestic Gross: $80 - $90 million
Worldwide Gross: $215 - $225 million

[Denton Smalls]

Even if it ends up being $65 million domestic total, that's gotta count for something since it would be higher than Predators' domestic total. Although if it has a bigger budget then I guess it would be a moot point.

[Johnny Handsome]

http://boxoffice718.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/logo-1.png

$ 28,000,000 - 3-Day Wide Opening

$ 65,000,000 - Domestic Total


https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-predator-simple-favor-white-boy-rick-highlight-mid-september/

I don't think those numbers are unrealistic for US distribution, although certainly not what FOX is hoping for, anything under a 100 million will be a disappointment, especially with the long reshoots and additional VFX.

I think the real money will be coming from foreign markets though, especially China.

[SiL]

Is it definitely getting a Chinese theatrical release? They only allow 30-40 Hollywood movies to screen a year, and they aren't super generous with their profit sharing. The Predator isn't a co-production, it's not a tentpole release, and it's a bloody R-rated film -- not a good combination for trying to get into the Chinese market. The Meg is slated for a Chinese release, but The Predator is only listed as showing in Hong Kong mid September.

[Johnny Handsome]

No, a chinese release is not safe yet, although Covenant got a date there 14 days before it got released in the US, so there is still plenty of time, it added another 4 markets last week too.

I heard about China not being generous with their profit sharing, but it's still good to make 30 - 40% of a big market instead of making nothing at all.

[SiL]

It's only around 25-30%.

The other option is a "buy out" distribution deal. This is on top of the profit-sharing model of the 34-ish films a year China allows in. A distributor in China would agree to X amount for the film, and anything over that would stay in China. The highest payout so far for such a deal, however, was freakin' Resident Evil: The Final Chapter, for all of $7million.

And since China has no real rating system, The Predator would end up appearing as a heavily censored version -- which would probably put people off, as it did when they sliced 6 minutes out of Covenant.

[Johnny Handsome]

I think it's safe to say that China is not the most comfortable market, but Covenant, a dark horror movie, as a cut-to-pieces version, still managed to make 45 million.

Let's say The Predator makes a meagre 20 million there, 25 - 30 % = 5 - 6 million... that would still make it one of the most important markets when it comes to foreign distribution, which for a Predator movie is an average of 3 - 4 million in the top markets like Germany, France, Brazil etc.

Still a good deal.

[BigDaddyJohn]

It's an interesting topic, but still, we need to know the movie's budget first.

[SiL]

which for a Predator movie is an average of 3 - 4 million in the top markets like Germany, France, Brazil etc.

Still a good deal.

When you put it like that, even 4-5 million on a buy out deal would be worth it for Fox.