Should the next Predator film be released in streaming or in theater?

Started by Cougerboy, Sep 14, 2022, 12:01:45 PM

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Should the next Predator film be released in streaming or in theater? (Read 6,923 times)

Cougerboy

Cougerboy

#15
Quote from: SiL on Sep 16, 2022, 06:42:02 AMWhat's one-off box office revenue to ongoing subscriptions? That's the new game. They don't want you to spend $15 on a ticket once or twice, then maybe another $20 on the blu-ray. They want you to pay $10 a month in perpetuity. There are less overheads, smaller marketing spends, and they don't have to split revenue with theatres and distributors.

Sure you can get a 30 day free trial, and if you know what you're doing you can get endless 30 day free trials, but the average punter is going to sign up for the free trial, forget to cancel, and get hit with some ongoing charges. And if they don't sell the movie on blu-ray or DVD, you have to have a subscription to watch it again later.

I don't like it, but I'd be lying if I said I don't get it.

And "quite a few" is still not "all". I understand a lot of A-list directors still believe in the prestige of the cinema, but others are coming around to the fact that audiences are moving on.

I doubt that streaming model works out for every studio. People can choose to refuse to pay a monthly subscription. Not everyone is a die hard fan, who is willing to subscribe to Hulu just to watch a Predator movie. Disney will be shooting themselves in the foot in that case if they denied themselves the returns of a box office.

Besides, the streaming model is not without issues. Look at Netflix's current struggle with falling subscription. Paramount executives resisted the urge to release Top Gun: Maverick on streaming, and they wre handsomely rewarded with a 1.4+ billion dollar box office and still growing at this point. The new management at WB is cutting down the amount of content and new releases on HBO MAx because they do not believe in such reliance on the streaming model.

So no, I do not believe streaming will replace theaters. And you have not provided statistics to back-up your plan to show a majority directors prefer streaming over theater release.

SiL

SiL

#16
We're not talking about every studio, we're talking Disney. Which has Marvel, Fox, Pixar and Lucasfilm, accounting for the most profitable properties in movie history. People will sign up to them. Meanwhile Netflix has lost many popular properties and their originals are struggling to keep it afloat.

Top Gun Maverick is a terrible example here. Predator movies don't make that much money in theatres. They never have. Prey has shown they're perfect for getting people to sign up and stay engaged with their streaming services.

For example, saying it's been watched for over a billion minutes sounds really impressive. But the movie is 100 minutes long. If that was made of people watching the whole movie, including credits, it's 10 million views. At $15 a ticket, that's $150 million - which the studio gets about half of.

Say they skip the credits but all watch. That only adds 10%.

Now consider all the people who only watched because it was on streaming, or only rewatched because it was on streaming.

It hasn't done that much better than previous entries. But costs were lower and the studio keeps everything and people sign up for ongoing payments so it's more profitable.

I think streaming will destroy itself eventually. It's not sustainable to have 10,000 streaming services vying for competition, and at some point anti trust and anti competitive laws are going to kick in and break them apart.

But the damage to going to the cinema is done for one simple reason: audiences like the convenience. Whether Nolan and Villeneuve or Tarantino or Lynch want you to see the movie in cinema or not is irrelevant. All that matters is where the audience decides they will go. And while the cinema is by no means dead, streaming has entrenched itself as an equal platform to audiences globally.

oduodu

oduodu

#17
so then its more complex than i imagined.  gone be an interesting few years coming for the movie industry . thats asuming there's a world "as we know it" a few years from now.

but a very interesting discussion. deserves its own thread.


https://www.androidauthority.com/movie-theaters-vs-streaming-services-3093835/

start quote:

Since Disney bought Lucasfilm, Marvel, and Fox, it has taken over a huge portion of the theatrical market, and it's betting on big titles with massive budgets at the expense of its own library of smaller new releases.

end quote

wow

Cougerboy

Cougerboy

#18
Quote from: SiL on Sep 16, 2022, 10:23:25 AMWe're not talking about every studio, we're talking Disney. Which has Marvel, Fox, Pixar and Lucasfilm, accounting for the most profitable properties in movie history. People will sign up to them. Meanwhile Netflix has lost many popular properties and their originals are struggling to keep it afloat.

Top Gun Maverick is a terrible example here. Predator movies don't make that much money in theatres. They never have. Prey has shown they're perfect for getting people to sign up and stay engaged with their streaming services.

For example, saying it's been watched for over a billion minutes sounds really impressive. But the movie is 100 minutes long. If that was made of people watching the whole movie, including credits, it's 10 million views. At $15 a ticket, that's $150 million - which the studio gets about half of.

Say they skip the credits but all watch. That only adds 10%.

Now consider all the people who only watched because it was on streaming, or only rewatched because it was on streaming.

It hasn't done that much better than previous entries. But costs were lower and the studio keeps everything and people sign up for ongoing payments so it's more profitable.

I think streaming will destroy itself eventually. It's not sustainable to have 10,000 streaming services vying for competition, and at some point anti trust and anti competitive laws are going to kick in and break them apart.

But the damage to going to the cinema is done for one simple reason: audiences like the convenience. Whether Nolan and Villeneuve or Tarantino or Lynch want you to see the movie in cinema or not is irrelevant. All that matters is where the audience decides they will go. And while the cinema is by no means dead, streaming has entrenched itself as an equal platform to audiences globally.

Well, you sounded like you were making a generalized statement about streaming, so I have to correct that. As for Predator, they did well enough in theaters to have sequels. Yes, you are right, the Predator franchise was never a mega box office champion like Marvel or Harry Potter franchises. But in general, Predator films made money. I mean, the logic is pretty simple. Leaving aside Hollywood accounting, if Predator did not make money, we wouldn't be getting sequels now, would we?

And I disagree, Top Gun is a perfectly valid example, because it shows movie in theaters still make money. It might not be the same type of film as Predator movies, but I remember at the height of the pandemic, some folks were saying streaming would kill off theaters for good. Well, that didn't happen. 

As for Hulu, I'm glad Disney deemed it a success. But that is seen in isolation. We have no idea whether the next Predator sequel will be just as successful on streaming. There are people who would pay a theater ticket to see Prey but would NOT subscribe to Hulu just to watch Prey.

It seems rather short-sighted, if not downright foolish as a long-term business strategy, to put all your eggs in the streaming basket and give up on theaters or Home media release.

Bottom line, streaming has provided an extra avenue for film release, but it has not, and will not, replace theater release as a whole.

SiL

SiL

#19
I never said movies don't make money in theatres any more, and I flat out said the cinema isn't dead. I've been talking  Predator movies.

The mid budget film has almost completely been pushed out of cinema and into streaming. I'm not saying this is good or defending it as sensible (and I've said before that I disagree with it), but it's just what it is.

Studios know they need to either spend obscenely large or obscenely small amounts of money for cinema to be terribly attractive at the moment. Predator movies fall into the middle. They won't make the hundreds of millions, or over a billion, that big blockbusters will; but they also don't cost little enough for what they will make to be hugely beneficial.

But those kinds of movies are perfect for getting people to sign up and stay signed up for an ongoing monthly transaction.

Huntsman

In cinemas. With streaming it's like a product doesn't feel official. At least to me.

Yautja888

As long as it features a 'Winston' faced pred, both would do it.

Cougerboy

Cougerboy

#22
Quote from: SiL on Sep 16, 2022, 08:18:51 PMI never said movies don't make money in theatres any more, and I flat out said the cinema isn't dead. I've been talking  Predator movies.

The mid budget film has almost completely been pushed out of cinema and into streaming. I'm not saying this is good or defending it as sensible (and I've said before that I disagree with it), but it's just what it is.

But those kinds of movies are perfect for getting people to sign up and stay signed up for an ongoing monthly transaction.

Mid-budget movies...hmm. I think some of the independent studios might be taking up that niche now neglected by the major studios. A24 has a smash hit in "Everything Everywhere all at Once", they are the ones willing to take risks on more quirky and original movies that the major studios aren't willing to make anymore. And Jordan Peele's horror movies, like his latest Nope, arguably a somewhat mid-budget movie (compared to Marvel movies anyway), has been doing pretty well in theaters.

Prey...I would like to know how many people actually signed up to Hulu just for Prey. Not that Disney would release those statistics. How many people would have seen it in theaters but won't bother signing up just to watch it on Hulu vs those willing to sign up to watch it on Hulu...because that would settle the debate between us.

SiL

I didn't realise we were having a debate.

Some Old Dude

Hybrid release. Not that I had any inclination to watch them, but Netflix gave theatrical releases to Red Notice and The Gray Man.

Cougerboy

Quote from: SiL on Sep 18, 2022, 01:48:57 AMI didn't realise we were having a debate.

You think streaming will rule the future at the expense of traditional cinema. I...have some doubts about that. 

Wweyland

Release it in both.
There's a good chance it will as Prey was so successful.

SiL

SiL

#27
Quote from: Cougerboy on Sep 21, 2022, 10:05:13 AM
Quote from: SiL on Sep 18, 2022, 01:48:57 AMI didn't realise we were having a debate.

You think streaming will rule the future at the expense of traditional cinema. I...have some doubts about that. 
I said "cinema isn't dead", "I think streaming will destroy itself" and "I don't agree with [studio streaming policies]" so I'm not sure who you're replying to here.

Acknowledging that the landscape of film distribution has been changed by streaming isn't really up for debate.

OmegaZilla

With the current climate, streaming. The 2018 film is an in-series example of how theatrical films nowadays are more focused on appealing to a mass audience (on an unprecedented level) rather than being... films. Thatrical producers want to squeeze as much as possible and have too much power. With streaming, there's less pressure, at the cost of not being able to experience the film in a theater.

At least with the way things are now.

Cougerboy

Cougerboy

#29
Quote from: SiL on Sep 21, 2022, 11:00:22 PM
Quote from: Cougerboy on Sep 21, 2022, 10:05:13 AM
Quote from: SiL on Sep 18, 2022, 01:48:57 AMI didn't realise we were having a debate.

You think streaming will rule the future at the expense of traditional cinema. I...have some doubts about that. 
I said "cinema isn't dead", "I think streaming will destroy itself" and "I don't agree with [studio streaming policies]" so I'm not sure who you're replying to here.

Acknowledging that the landscape of film distribution has been changed by streaming isn't really up for debate.

 I said there is still space for some mid budget movie while you said there is none. That is the issue. Why is that not up for debate???

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