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Author Topic: 20th Century Fox 2017 Showcase Event  (Read 36370 times)

The Eighth Passenger
Dec 15, 2016, 04:32:58 PM
Reply #330 on: Dec 15, 2016, 04:32:58 PM
I'm fine with CGI myself, all the CGI in prometheus was done very well and tastefully.

Besides knowing Scott, he'll do practical effects when possible. ( we've also had actors say that there were practical creatures on set)

We also know Odd Studio in Sydney did a lot of practical creature work.

The 200 million quote is the only think that makes me pessimistic.  That makes Covenant the most expensive R rated movie of all time, and if you add in advertising and all that, you have to figure around a 400 million break even point.  That's a huge uphill battle for this film.

I still think the 200 million is gonna come out as bullshit since Prometheus didn't even make that before Home video release.  It came close, but still, yeah, didn't quite make it.  That is a huge budget for a niche horror movie to recover, and it certainly won't have Deadpool crossover potential.  I am hopeful it makes that money back, but I think i would be even more hopeful if it has a Prometheus budget attached to it.

Yes, once you go past the $150 million mark on an R-Rated film you start getting diminishing returns the higher you go. The only way that $200 million figure could work is if it includes marketing/advertising costs.

Production cost wise, $150 sounds reasonable, albeit still very high for a film such as this.


fiveways
Dec 15, 2016, 04:37:44 PM
Reply #331 on: Dec 15, 2016, 04:37:44 PM
Where did that even come from? Wikipedia?

According to this is (projected) 150: http://avp.wikia.com/wiki/Alien:_Covenant. I'm sure it's gonna be more than Prometheus.

I can't honestly tell if it has more or less star power than Prometheus.  I have no idea what actors are popular (because actors aren't priority in why I watch something beyond B-movie greats).  Like I know Fassbender will make a decent chunk of change but I have no idea about what the pay scale of any of the others would be, so they might in my mind be saving money there (I assume Theron was fairly expensive). 

I think 120-130m is a comfortable budget point for an Alien related Hard R horror movie.  It's a proven number.  Maybe the Alien name attached will bring in more people, maybe it will hurt it (as AVP:R is maybe the worst film ever made). 

I want it to do well, and a not astronomical budget will only help with that.


The Eighth Passenger
Dec 15, 2016, 04:42:57 PM
Reply #332 on: Dec 15, 2016, 04:42:57 PM
We don't have any Oscar winners in Covenant as was the case with Prometheus.

We also need to consider that it is a little cheaper making a film in Australia than the UK. They essentially got more bang for their buck thanks to the exchange rate as well as all the government grants and tax rebates.


fiveways
Dec 15, 2016, 04:43:15 PM
Reply #333 on: Dec 15, 2016, 04:43:15 PM
I'm fine with CGI myself, all the CGI in prometheus was done very well and tastefully.

Besides knowing Scott, he'll do practical effects when possible. ( we've also had actors say that there were practical creatures on set)

We also know Odd Studio in Sydney did a lot of practical creature work.

The 200 million quote is the only think that makes me pessimistic.  That makes Covenant the most expensive R rated movie of all time, and if you add in advertising and all that, you have to figure around a 400 million break even point.  That's a huge uphill battle for this film.

I still think the 200 million is gonna come out as bullshit since Prometheus didn't even make that before Home video release.  It came close, but still, yeah, didn't quite make it.  That is a huge budget for a niche horror movie to recover, and it certainly won't have Deadpool crossover potential.  I am hopeful it makes that money back, but I think i would be even more hopeful if it has a Prometheus budget attached to it.

Yes, once you go past the $150 million mark on an R-Rated film you start getting diminishing returns the higher you go. The only way that $200 million figure could work is if it includes marketing/advertising costs.

Production cost wise, $150 sounds reasonable, albeit still very high for a film such as this.

This movie is gonna be way over $200m  as soon as advertising begins to kick in.  Even Prometheus was close to or over $200m when you factor promotion and advertising into it..  How much over is a good question.  Anywhere from half to about equal to the budget seems to be average. 


BishopShouldGo
Dec 15, 2016, 04:46:29 PM
Reply #334 on: Dec 15, 2016, 04:46:29 PM
It has a bit less star power than Prometheus. If Covenant had a Charlize Theron then it'd be a different case. Hell it'd be a different case if Franco had a main role. Maybe McBride's.

This movie will make big bucks because of the Alien name. Ridley Scott's name. The fact that it's good. $600mm despite its gory and bleak nature.


NickisSmart
Dec 15, 2016, 04:49:53 PM
Reply #335 on: Dec 15, 2016, 04:49:53 PM
Star power ain't anything. Alien had virtually none.


The Eighth Passenger
Dec 15, 2016, 04:52:07 PM
Reply #336 on: Dec 15, 2016, 04:52:07 PM
This movie is gonna be way over $200m  as soon as advertising begins to kick in.  Even Prometheus was close to or over $200m when you factor promotion and advertising into it..  How much over is a good question.  Anywhere from half to about equal to the budget seems to be average. 

Production budget could be the same as Prometheus and the film could still be "bigger" in scope. Remember they are saving on super-star salaries plus the big boon of filming in Australia as I mentioned above.

But lets not get into Hollywood "accounting", we're derailing this thread.


fiveways
Dec 15, 2016, 05:04:22 PM
Reply #337 on: Dec 15, 2016, 05:04:22 PM
This movie is gonna be way over $200m  as soon as advertising begins to kick in.  Even Prometheus was close to or over $200m when you factor promotion and advertising into it..  How much over is a good question.  Anywhere from half to about equal to the budget seems to be average. 

Production budget could be the same as Prometheus and the film could still be "bigger" in scope. Remember they are saving on super-star salaries plus the big boon of filming in Australia as I mentioned above.

But lets not get into Hollywood "accounting", we're derailing this thread.

It's be interesting to see real numbers.  The Australia part is a good point.  This could easily do exactly what you are say, looking absolutely huge on a 130m budget just from some locations and reducing actor paychecks.

Maybe this should be split into a separate thread? 

Sorry to the mods for going way off topic.


Bworko
Dec 15, 2016, 05:59:56 PM
Reply #338 on: Dec 15, 2016, 05:59:56 PM
No one narrated precisely the covenant alien extract presented by fox.

I can not! I want spoil. I suffer in agony. :P It's a torture to wait for this trailer.

It's weird that no one has yet made a description of what they saw.




CainsSon
Dec 15, 2016, 06:34:40 PM
Reply #340 on: Dec 15, 2016, 06:34:40 PM
I'm fine with CGI myself, all the CGI in prometheus was done very well and tastefully.

Besides knowing Scott, he'll do practical effects when possible. ( we've also had actors say that there were practical creatures on set)

We also know Odd Studio in Sydney did a lot of practical creature work.

The 200 million quote is the only think that makes me pessimistic.  That makes Covenant the most expensive R rated movie of all time, and if you add in advertising and all that, you have to figure around a 400 million break even point.  That's a huge uphill battle for this film.

I still think the 200 million is gonna come out as bullshit since Prometheus didn't even make that before Home video release.  It came close, but still, yeah, didn't quite make it.  That is a huge budget for a niche horror movie to recover, and it certainly won't have Deadpool crossover potential.  I am hopeful it makes that money back, but I think i would be even more hopeful if it has a Prometheus budget attached to it.

Yes, once you go past the $150 million mark on an R-Rated film you start getting diminishing returns the higher you go. The only way that $200 million figure could work is if it includes marketing/advertising costs.

Production cost wise, $150 sounds reasonable, albeit still very high for a film such as this.

Where are we getting the info that says the CGI was used on the creatures? Maybe to enhance them, but we know there is practical and puppet work. My guess is this "Liberal CGI" is more likely in reference to realizing PARADISE. Based on the leaked photos alone, they are probably creating the equivalent of a Prehistoric Forest and enhancing the natural landscapes to appear more fantastic. To truly make PARADISE as fantastic as they can, I wouldn't sweat this... Probably adds to the world-building. Also we know there is this scene of these Engineers or people, in the throws of mutation, being petrified. Maybe we will get to see that somehow? There are some things which it just doesnt make sense to do practically.

Production Cost for Horror is in new territory right now. Its hard to estimate what's worth what in a market like this. A case could be made that the studios are more and more desperate for something reliable with an R-Rating. Very true that 200m seems high, and maybe unlikely, but this film is a full restoration of the ALIEN franchise, its Scott right after THE MARTIAN, coming off the success of PROMETHEUS (are we really still arguing over whether that film was a success?), and it may not have oscar-winners, but Fassbender is a major headliner and he is reprising a critically acclaimed role. The Horror thing is tough. On the one hand, yes horror and R-rated films have IN THE PAST meant diminishing returns, after a certain budgetary threshold, but it is with restraint that I would add, from a Producer's standpoint, that a horror franchise with built in desire for future cross platform material, and fan base - Something like THE WALKING DEAD, for instance, which is a runaway success, are in short supply and also very popular. Especially previously established properties; the likes of which, studios would love to establish or RE-ESTABLISH, at a time like this, when the audience for, popularity of, and acceptance of dark gory-horror is at an all time high. So I'm just saying we are really in new territory for the horror genre. Traditionally R-RATED original material isn't guaranteed to make $ but an R-rated established fan-favorite, like ALIEN, is kinda in a new place right now, due to the popularity of things like THE WALKING DEAD and etc. For sure ALIEN has always been a sort of anomaly for R-RATED material, historically. There really aren't many opportunities for the studios to bank on this type of thing, and they may have decided this is as good as any chance to do so. These new reports of the "most violent ALIEN film" not-with-standing. Still 200m seems high. There are also plans to make more of these films, so investing when the iron is hot is also a consideration. ::Shrugs::

« Last Edit: Dec 15, 2016, 06:48:01 PM by CainsSon »

SuicideDoors
Dec 15, 2016, 06:51:15 PM
Reply #341 on: Dec 15, 2016, 06:51:15 PM
I'm pretty confident we'll get the English trailer in 10 days (depending on timezone). I believe it'll be early morning (GMT) time.

Is this an indication it may not be with Assassins Creed then? Because should the trailer debut with that, that's the 21st, and you'd think it's guaranteed to leak online? So I woulda thought Fox's strategy would be to put it online to avoid a nasty bootleg version. What do you think?


Protozoid
Dec 15, 2016, 07:02:12 PM
Reply #342 on: Dec 15, 2016, 07:02:12 PM
Prometheus made a healthy profit. The budget for the next one can be higher because of this. Also they added "Alien" to the title, thus giving it brand recognition and possibly adding hundreds of millions to their box office. Finally, Australia not only stretched their money, but they offered a huge rebate for filming there. Thus, you can say that Covenant had a budget of $200 million or $150 million and both are, in a sense, correct. Same thing happened with Exodus: they spent $200 million, but got some back and ended up with a "final" budget of $150 million or so.

There really is no mystery to this and I'm amused to see so many people doubting that Covenant could cost $200 million. Logan is Fox's big tent-pole movie for next summer, and Prometheus outgrossed X-Men: First Class. This could literally be the studio's biggest release of the year, and it's actually a safe bet, economically. Since Fox lost Star Wars to Disney and Fantastic Four is an aborted franchise, they just have Avatar, X-Men/Wolverine, and Alien, now. Avatar has been postponed many times, and they are ending the Wolverine franchise, and they had mixed success starting a new X-men series with Apocalypse, so I can easily imagine them betting the farm on Ridley Scott's next Alien film.


lv_226
Dec 15, 2016, 07:04:37 PM
Reply #343 on: Dec 15, 2016, 07:04:37 PM
I'm pretty confident we'll get the English trailer in 10 days (depending on timezone). I believe it'll be early morning (GMT) time.

Is this an indication it may not be with Assassins Creed then? Because should the trailer debut with that, that's the 21st, and you'd think it's guaranteed to leak online? So I woulda thought Fox's strategy would be to put it online to avoid a nasty bootleg version. What do you think?

We must be on the same wavelength. I think it would be foolish not to put it with AC. I feel that we may be getting it sooner rather than later.


harlequinade
Dec 15, 2016, 07:05:21 PM
Reply #344 on: Dec 15, 2016, 07:05:21 PM
Blade Runner trailer is nearly 2 minutes long and will be attached to Passengers so I'm 99% sure Covenant is gonna be with Assassin's Creed


 

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