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Poll

What do you think will be the cumulative box office take in the United States on the movie's opening weekend

Below $ 50 M
1 (4.5%)
$50-70 M
11 (50%)
$70-90 M
5 (22.7%)
Above $100 M
5 (22.7%)

Total Members Voted: 22

Voting closed: Jun 08, 2012, 02:51:53 PM

Author Topic: US opening weekend - place your bets!  (Read 1743 times)

Winkie Bear
Jun 05, 2012, 02:51:53 PM
Topic on: Jun 05, 2012, 02:51:53 PM
I am going to make a frighteningly specific bet of $ 82 M, followed by a fairly steep drop and a mediocre run overall, finishing up in the $200 - 250 M ballpark in the United States.

I think international business will be around the same value, maybe $300 M or thereabouts.

And this will just do it for a sequel.



Winkie Bear
Jun 05, 2012, 02:55:03 PM
Reply #2 on: Jun 05, 2012, 02:55:03 PM
200 to 250 million is not a mediocre run whatsoever.

Well perspective is all. For the type of movie it's pitched as, I would call $500 M superb and $100 M truly awful. Something in the middle is, by definition, mediocre.

Do you want to place a bet?  Bear in mind that it can't make more than the GDP of the entire planet  ;)


Gazz
Jun 05, 2012, 02:58:29 PM
Reply #3 on: Jun 05, 2012, 02:58:29 PM
Holy shit 200-250 million in US alone is considered mediocre?! I guess that's why films like Thor, Captain America, Rise of the Planet of the Apes and X-Men First Class don't get sequels.  :laugh:

I think $55-65 million opening.
$150-$160 million in States
$400 million WW.



Kev Loaf
Jun 05, 2012, 02:58:58 PM
Reply #4 on: Jun 05, 2012, 02:58:58 PM
It will do very well. The hype will make it certain.


Winkie Bear
Jun 05, 2012, 03:05:55 PM
Reply #5 on: Jun 05, 2012, 03:05:55 PM
Sure, I think considering it's placed as a tent-pole summer movie - a Star Trek or a Transformers (both of which did just shy of $400 M) then I would call $200 M somewhat disappointing, if that were the final take.
This year's big turkeys, Battleship and Titans are both struggling to get near $100 M.  The surprise for me is that Journey 2 didn't do better than its current $102 M.

Still, we'll see what we will see - only a few more days!


Gazz
Jun 05, 2012, 03:13:03 PM
Reply #6 on: Jun 05, 2012, 03:13:03 PM
Sure, I think considering it's placed as a tent-pole summer movie - a Star Trek or a Transformers (both of which did just shy of $400 M) then I would call $200 M somewhat disappointing, if that were the final take.
This year's big turkeys, Battleship and Titans are both struggling to get near $100 M.  The surprise for me is that Journey 2 didn't do better than its current $102 M.

Still, we'll see what we will see - only a few more days!

You forget both rating and budget

I mean the films I have listed have been released at similar times, built as tentpoles in the summer and yet have been considered sucesses despite only reaching what you must consider to be the paltry sum of around $170-$180 million.

« Last Edit: Jun 05, 2012, 03:16:20 PM by Gazz »

Salt The Fries
Jun 05, 2012, 03:16:47 PM
Reply #7 on: Jun 05, 2012, 03:16:47 PM
Something halfway between $100m and $500 m would be average and not mediocre.


Winkie Bear
Jun 05, 2012, 03:19:00 PM
Reply #8 on: Jun 05, 2012, 03:19:00 PM
Sure, I think considering it's placed as a tent-pole summer movie - a Star Trek or a Transformers (both of which did just shy of $400 M) then I would call $200 M somewhat disappointing, if that were the final take.
This year's big turkeys, Battleship and Titans are both struggling to get near $100 M.  The surprise for me is that Journey 2 didn't do better than its current $102 M.

Still, we'll see what we will see - only a few more days!

You forget both rating and budget

True, fair point. Of course Prometheus is an R whereas I think all the movies I listed about were open to a wider audience.

I'm less clear what budget has to do with it, unless you mean marketing budget and even that can be wasted. John Carter had a Prometheus-sized budget and went south faster than a.... well, something going south very fast.


Something halfway between $100m and $500 m would be average and not mediocre.

As a numerical value it would indeed be an average. As a performance against expectations it might be considered mediocre.

I'm just trying to get people excited - there's been so much negativity; do we have to pick at every little word?

« Last Edit: Jun 05, 2012, 03:20:49 PM by ucdom »

Gazz
Jun 05, 2012, 03:21:44 PM
Reply #9 on: Jun 05, 2012, 03:21:44 PM
I remember some reports stated the budget to be around $110 million though that could have easily risen during production.


Winkie Bear
Jun 05, 2012, 03:22:54 PM
Reply #10 on: Jun 05, 2012, 03:22:54 PM
I remember some reports stated the budget to be around $110 million though that could have easily risen during production.

Yeah, I heard $120-130 M. Then the worldwide marketing will be the same again I guess.


Salt The Fries
Jun 05, 2012, 03:38:33 PM
Reply #11 on: Jun 05, 2012, 03:38:33 PM
I think it's going to gross around $550m worldwide (US+overseas combined) at the very least.

I remember some reports stated the budget to be around $110 million though that could have easily risen during production.

Yeah, I heard $120-130 M. Then the worldwide marketing will be the same again I guess.

It must have not contained the marketing costs which I take were huge...I think this figure will be updated some time soon.


Ooze on First
Jun 05, 2012, 04:16:33 PM
Reply #12 on: Jun 05, 2012, 04:16:33 PM
OW: $57m
Total: $175m
WW: $425m

« Last Edit: Jun 05, 2012, 04:18:23 PM by Ooze on First »

Prime113
Jun 05, 2012, 05:00:49 PM
Reply #13 on: Jun 05, 2012, 05:00:49 PM
I'm going with a $58.5 million opening weekend.  :)


Winkie Bear
Jun 05, 2012, 05:02:47 PM
Reply #14 on: Jun 05, 2012, 05:02:47 PM
Blimey, you all do know that Snow White (yes, Snow f****ing White) opened with $56 M  ??

Oh well, not long now til we find out  8)


 

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