Quote from: Kradan on Jan 14, 2022, 07:38:49 PM
Quote from: Ingwar on Jan 14, 2022, 07:05:28 PM
Russia invaded Crimea in 2014. It happened. They can do the same with Odessa or Donbas
Or Kherson 
It's not technically impossible, but I find it to be unlikely and here's my thought process.
Crimea was of strategic importance to Russia as Sevastopol was already leased to them since Russia values Crimea's naval facilities for it's Black Sea Navy, and the moment Russia decided to annex Crimea was when Ukraine was also overthrowing it's former leadership and the fate of their agreement was in jeopardy.
Not that I'm trying to justify it, I don't, but I'm saying they had strong reasoning and they were also able to catch everyone by surprise while doing it to boot.
But now everyone is watching, increasing their military spending, and the west has shown some commitment such as troops from the west being in Ukraine in training roles.
If Russia were to invade and start a war I actually believe they could be at the least walking a similar road as the U.S did into Afghanistan, a long drawn out conflict that they can't afford and would even exacerbate their already existing internal problems such as the pandemic, the declining economy, the sanctions, the corruption, the growing discontent among the populace and even the fact that it's population has been declining in peace time since WW2.
Not impossible, but really I'm just saying that the media loves their clicks and the threat of war sells.
