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Archive => Archive => Prometheus Speculation => Topic started by: Winkie Bear on Jun 05, 2012, 02:51:53 PM

Poll
Question: What do you think will be the cumulative box office take in the United States on the movie's opening weekend
Option 1: Below $ 50 M votes: 1
Option 2: $50-70 M votes: 11
Option 3: $70-90 M votes: 5
Option 4: Above $100 M votes: 5
Title: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: Winkie Bear on Jun 05, 2012, 02:51:53 PM
I am going to make a frighteningly specific bet of $ 82 M, followed by a fairly steep drop and a mediocre run overall, finishing up in the $200 - 250 M ballpark in the United States.

I think international business will be around the same value, maybe $300 M or thereabouts.

And this will just do it for a sequel.
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: ThisBethesdaSea on Jun 05, 2012, 02:52:47 PM
200 to 250 million is not a mediocre run whatsoever.
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: Winkie Bear on Jun 05, 2012, 02:55:03 PM
Quote from: ThisBethesdaSea on Jun 05, 2012, 02:52:47 PM
200 to 250 million is not a mediocre run whatsoever.

Well perspective is all. For the type of movie it's pitched as, I would call $500 M superb and $100 M truly awful. Something in the middle is, by definition, mediocre.

Do you want to place a bet?  Bear in mind that it can't make more than the GDP of the entire planet  ;)
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: Gazz on Jun 05, 2012, 02:58:29 PM
Holy shit 200-250 million in US alone is considered mediocre?! I guess that's why films like Thor, Captain America, Rise of the Planet of the Apes and X-Men First Class don't get sequels.  :laugh:

I think $55-65 million opening.
$150-$160 million in States
$400 million WW.

Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: Kev Loaf on Jun 05, 2012, 02:58:58 PM
It will do very well. The hype will make it certain.
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: Winkie Bear on Jun 05, 2012, 03:05:55 PM
Sure, I think considering it's placed as a tent-pole summer movie - a Star Trek or a Transformers (both of which did just shy of $400 M) then I would call $200 M somewhat disappointing, if that were the final take.
This year's big turkeys, Battleship and Titans are both struggling to get near $100 M.  The surprise for me is that Journey 2 didn't do better than its current $102 M.

Still, we'll see what we will see - only a few more days!
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: Gazz on Jun 05, 2012, 03:13:03 PM
Quote from: ucdom on Jun 05, 2012, 03:05:55 PM
Sure, I think considering it's placed as a tent-pole summer movie - a Star Trek or a Transformers (both of which did just shy of $400 M) then I would call $200 M somewhat disappointing, if that were the final take.
This year's big turkeys, Battleship and Titans are both struggling to get near $100 M.  The surprise for me is that Journey 2 didn't do better than its current $102 M.

Still, we'll see what we will see - only a few more days!

You forget both rating and budget

I mean the films I have listed have been released at similar times, built as tentpoles in the summer and yet have been considered sucesses despite only reaching what you must consider to be the paltry sum of around $170-$180 million.
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: Salt The Fries on Jun 05, 2012, 03:16:47 PM
Something halfway between $100m and $500 m would be average and not mediocre.
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: Winkie Bear on Jun 05, 2012, 03:19:00 PM
Quote from: Gazz on Jun 05, 2012, 03:13:03 PM
Quote from: ucdom on Jun 05, 2012, 03:05:55 PM
Sure, I think considering it's placed as a tent-pole summer movie - a Star Trek or a Transformers (both of which did just shy of $400 M) then I would call $200 M somewhat disappointing, if that were the final take.
This year's big turkeys, Battleship and Titans are both struggling to get near $100 M.  The surprise for me is that Journey 2 didn't do better than its current $102 M.

Still, we'll see what we will see - only a few more days!

You forget both rating and budget

True, fair point. Of course Prometheus is an R whereas I think all the movies I listed about were open to a wider audience.

I'm less clear what budget has to do with it, unless you mean marketing budget and even that can be wasted. John Carter had a Prometheus-sized budget and went south faster than a.... well, something going south very fast.



Quote from: Salt The Fries on Jun 05, 2012, 03:16:47 PM
Something halfway between $100m and $500 m would be average and not mediocre.

As a numerical value it would indeed be an average. As a performance against expectations it might be considered mediocre.

I'm just trying to get people excited - there's been so much negativity; do we have to pick at every little word?
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: Gazz on Jun 05, 2012, 03:21:44 PM
I remember some reports stated the budget to be around $110 million though that could have easily risen during production.
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: Winkie Bear on Jun 05, 2012, 03:22:54 PM
Quote from: Gazz on Jun 05, 2012, 03:21:44 PM
I remember some reports stated the budget to be around $110 million though that could have easily risen during production.

Yeah, I heard $120-130 M. Then the worldwide marketing will be the same again I guess.
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: Salt The Fries on Jun 05, 2012, 03:38:33 PM
I think it's going to gross around $550m worldwide (US+overseas combined) at the very least.


Quote from: ucdom on Jun 05, 2012, 03:22:54 PM
Quote from: Gazz on Jun 05, 2012, 03:21:44 PM
I remember some reports stated the budget to be around $110 million though that could have easily risen during production.

Yeah, I heard $120-130 M. Then the worldwide marketing will be the same again I guess.

It must have not contained the marketing costs which I take were huge...I think this figure will be updated some time soon.
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: Ooze on First on Jun 05, 2012, 04:16:33 PM
OW: $57m
Total: $175m
WW: $425m
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: Prime113 on Jun 05, 2012, 05:00:49 PM
I'm going with a $58.5 million opening weekend.  :)
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: Winkie Bear on Jun 05, 2012, 05:02:47 PM
Blimey, you all do know that Snow White (yes, Snow f****ing White) opened with $56 M  ??

Oh well, not long now til we find out  8)
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: Prime113 on Jun 05, 2012, 05:04:19 PM
Quote from: ucdom on Jun 05, 2012, 05:02:47 PM
Blimey, you all do know that Snow White (yes, Snow f****ing White) opened with $56 M  ??

Oh well, not long now til we find out  8)

Yes, but that had two of the hottest stars out right now. Kristen Stewart, I mean, come on, and Chris Hemsworth is a heartthrob for the wimminz.
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: Winkie Bear on Jun 05, 2012, 05:07:30 PM
Well I see your Kristen Stewart and Chris Hemsworth and raise you a lycra-clad Charlize Theron, a buff Logan Marshall Green, an extremely handsome Fassbender.
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: Cvalda on Jun 05, 2012, 05:10:21 PM
Quote from: ucdom on Jun 05, 2012, 05:07:30 PM
a buff Logan Marshall Green
That's not buff, that's fluff ;D :P
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: Winkie Bear on Jun 05, 2012, 05:13:53 PM
Quote from: Cvalda on Jun 05, 2012, 05:10:21 PM
Quote from: ucdom on Jun 05, 2012, 05:07:30 PM
a buff Logan Marshall Green
That's not buff, that's fluff ;D :P

Ugh, I knew that was gonna happen.  :laugh:

I'll keep him out of your way   :-*
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: Cvalda on Jun 05, 2012, 05:14:12 PM
By all means :D :P
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: Prime113 on Jun 05, 2012, 05:15:43 PM
Quote from: ucdom on Jun 05, 2012, 05:07:30 PM
Well I see your Kristen Stewart and Chris Hemsworth and raise you a lycra-clad Charlize Theron, a buff Logan Marshall Green, an extremely handsome Fassbender.

As much as I love CT and MF, they are no way near the the numbers of asses in seats as Kristen Stewart and Chris Hemsworth. Plus, Prometheus is an R-rated Science Fiction movie. I really hope it does better than I predict, but, I don't believe it will.
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: Winkie Bear on Jun 05, 2012, 05:17:22 PM
Quote from: Prime113 on Jun 05, 2012, 05:15:43 PM
Quote from: ucdom on Jun 05, 2012, 05:07:30 PM
Well I see your Kristen Stewart and Chris Hemsworth and raise you a lycra-clad Charlize Theron, a buff Logan Marshall Green, an extremely handsome Fassbender.

As much as I love CT and MF, they are no way near the the numbers of asses in seats as Kristen Stewart and Chris Hemsworth. Plus, Prometheus is an R-rated Science Fiction movie. I really hope it does better than I predict, but, I don't believe it will.

Fair enough - we'll see soon!!  ;D
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: Prime113 on Jun 05, 2012, 05:18:45 PM
Yes we will, ucdom, yes we will.

AGHGHHAHGHGH 3 days!
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: SpeedyMaxx on Jun 05, 2012, 05:22:35 PM
Even Alien would not do SWATH business - that film is a PG-13 franchise piece with Kristen Stewart and Thor.  It's a different market from the franchise Prometheus is aiming for - otherwise, Meredith Vickers would've had a beefed-up role, been sixteen and played by...Emma Watson.

I think Prometheus will do fine, mixed reviews and all (par for the course with the franchise), and I think it's going to clear a sequel threshold easily.  I do hope next time they don't worry so about running length and the rating.
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: Salt The Fries on Jun 05, 2012, 06:05:30 PM
And Prometheus obliterated Snow White in Europe...
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: chrisr232007 on Jun 05, 2012, 08:18:23 PM
Sorry to say this but Prometheus will get beat by Madagascar 3 which I say it opens below 40 million.  For a few reasons, one Mad3 is a PG family friendly film vs. Prometheus being a R rated movie.  Second Mad3 is obening in over 4000 theaters while Prometheus is only opening in 3300.  Then with all the mix reveiws that Prometheus is getting is turning some people away from seeing it.  Then of course the bad taste that is left in many peoples mouth from previous movies such as Aliens:R, AVP, and AVP-R. I hope I am wrong for the sake of are beloved Aliens but I really dont see it doing no more then 40 million if even that.
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: Game_Over_Man on Jun 05, 2012, 08:28:48 PM
Yeah, 3D is the key here. Look on Twitter - there's a lot of love for Prometheus from people who've already seen it. Yes there are negative vibes as well, but overall the posts seem positive. One constant is that it's generally agreed the movie is the best thing visually since Avatar - and that alone will have people giving it a shot.

Madagascar as a threat? - not sure, the last movie was slated, it's a pretty well worn format AND under-promoted.

I sincerely hope Prometheus makes $300m+ , I'd like to see more, with another director, some even more braver choices, and a return to Xeno infested madness. 
Title: Re: US opening weekend - place your bets!
Post by: Zenzucht on Jun 05, 2012, 09:32:41 PM
Quote from: Game_Over_Man on Jun 05, 2012, 08:28:48 PM
Yeah, 3D is the key here. Look on Twitter - there's a lot of love for Prometheus from people who've already seen it. Yes there are negative vibes as well, but overall the posts seem positive. One constant is that it's generally agreed the movie is the best thing visually since Avatar - and that alone will have people giving it a shot.

Madagascar as a threat? - not sure, the last movie was slated, it's a pretty well worn format AND under-promoted.

I sincerely hope Prometheus makes $300m+ , I'd like to see more, with another director, some even more braver choices, and a return to Xeno infested madness.

I work in the cinema and I bet that thousands of people will see the movie because the Marty's afro circus gag.. Everybody who passed by the cinema and saw that part smiles immediately like idiot.. But to be fair, I also heard some people saying "We have to see that Prometheus as well!"