Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!

Started by Pvt. Himmel, Mar 25, 2017, 05:03:28 PM

What do you think of Box office.Com's prediction??

It will be waaay higher than that!!
34 (66.7%)
That's just about right!!
12 (23.5%)
This will be looower than projected numbers!!
5 (9.8%)

Total Members Voted: 51

Author
Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!! (Read 22,756 times)

cucuchu

Quote from: Hellspawn28 on Apr 29, 2017, 08:23:47 PM
We have Pirates of the Caribbean 5 and Diary of a Wimpy Kid 3 coming out. I feel like AC may not reach #1 at the box office on the first week. Fox made the same mistake with Prometheus by releasing it on the same week with another shitty kids movie.

Pirates is out one week after Alien: Covenant in the states. So that leaves diary of a wimpy kid and Guardians of the Galaxy 2 as its big contenders. King Arthur is out around then too, I think a week earlier, but I do not get the impression that many are interested in that. So really, I think Alien has plenty of room to do well because Diary of a wimpy kid audience is probably not interested in A:C and vice versa. Guardians will have been out a couple of weeks and while it and alien might share a portion of their audience, 2 weeks is enough time to allow people to see both realistically. Pirates of the Caribbean does seem to be reviewing well but I also think the audiences are different enough, and Alien is a week earlier.

So to keep it simple: Alien: Covenant will be the only mainstream hard R movie out during a period now where people seem more open to that. Also it carries the alien name, unlike Prometheus, and the marketting campaign has been top notch. I feel certain it will out perform prometheus at the least and possibly double Prometheus' box office if there is positive word of mouth and people are all about it on social media. Very optimistic myself!

WinsteadLeung

Quote from: cucuchu on Apr 29, 2017, 03:01:47 PM
Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 29, 2017, 12:52:20 PM
Quote from: juxtapose on Apr 29, 2017, 05:49:38 AM
Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 29, 2017, 03:15:44 AM
I really envy you guys.
COVENANT may not be released in China, even if the bloody scenes are deleted.
well if thats the case then it will definately hurt the box office. .but why would it not be released in china. .all the other alien movies was released their?
Only Prometheus,and they deleted hammerpede scene and surgery scene as well as trilobite scene. Alien1-4 are only shown on some film festivals
PROMETHEUS was released in China in September with THE AMAZING SPIDERMAN and THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, and, people love superheros. :)

China has countless people like ALIEN series, so to speak.


Any idea on how popular the Alien series is in China? Wondering how much of an impact it will have all in all. Unless I am mistaken, Prometheus did not,appear in China cinemas and still managed to pull in 402 million at the box office, which is quite decent when comparing it to the budget (including marketing)... Not to mention the blu ray and digital sales.

Also, something IMPORTANT to keep in mind is that Prometheus was not an Alien film by name so that probably did not help it. Alien: Covenant is an obvious Alien film with a solid marketting campaign and will be releasing in a time when big budget R-rated films do quite well. I predict a worldwide Box Office success at $600 million easily. I see a lot of people hyped for the movie (anedoctal, yes, but still...). Commercially it will be a large success and critically the general audience will enjoy it and find it to be intense and fun to watch, while probably pretty divided amongst more hardcore alien fans.
PROMETHEUS was released in China in September with THE AMAZING SPIDERMAN and THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, and, people love superheros. :)

China has countless people like ALIEN series, so to speak.

Anthony

Anthony

#62
Does anyone even care about the new Diary Of A Wimpy Kid film? I was the biggest fan of that series and the new film just came out of nowhere.

Heck, I'm surprised they didn't move it to Covenant's precious August date.

cucuchu

Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 30, 2017, 12:57:34 AM
Quote from: cucuchu on Apr 29, 2017, 03:01:47 PM
Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 29, 2017, 12:52:20 PM
Quote from: juxtapose on Apr 29, 2017, 05:49:38 AM
Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 29, 2017, 03:15:44 AM
I really envy you guys.
COVENANT may not be released in China, even if the bloody scenes are deleted.
well if thats the case then it will definately hurt the box office. .but why would it not be released in china. .all the other alien movies was released their?
Only Prometheus,and they deleted hammerpede scene and surgery scene as well as trilobite scene. Alien1-4 are only shown on some film festivals
PROMETHEUS was released in China in September with THE AMAZING SPIDERMAN and THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, and, people love superheros. :)

China has countless people like ALIEN series, so to speak.


Any idea on how popular the Alien series is in China? Wondering how much of an impact it will have all in all. Unless I am mistaken, Prometheus did not,appear in China cinemas and still managed to pull in 402 million at the box office, which is quite decent when comparing it to the budget (including marketing)... Not to mention the blu ray and digital sales.

Also, something IMPORTANT to keep in mind is that Prometheus was not an Alien film by name so that probably did not help it. Alien: Covenant is an obvious Alien film with a solid marketting campaign and will be releasing in a time when big budget R-rated films do quite well. I predict a worldwide Box Office success at $600 million easily. I see a lot of people hyped for the movie (anedoctal, yes, but still...). Commercially it will be a large success and critically the general audience will enjoy it and find it to be intense and fun to watch, while probably pretty divided amongst more hardcore alien fans.
PROMETHEUS was released in China in September with THE AMAZING SPIDERMAN and THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, and, people love superheros. :)

China has countless people like ALIEN series, so to speak.

Thanks for the information friend. It was released in Cinema?  Well, hope the same for Alien: Covenant...box office numbers aside, alien fans should get to enjoy the films as intended no matter their location. Hoping you get to see it soon!

WinsteadLeung

Quote from: cucuchu on Apr 30, 2017, 01:01:01 AM
Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 30, 2017, 12:57:34 AM
Quote from: cucuchu on Apr 29, 2017, 03:01:47 PM
Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 29, 2017, 12:52:20 PM
Quote from: juxtapose on Apr 29, 2017, 05:49:38 AM
Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 29, 2017, 03:15:44 AM
I really envy you guys.
COVENANT may not be released in China, even if the bloody scenes are deleted.
well if thats the case then it will definately hurt the box office. .but why would it not be released in china. .all the other alien movies was released their?
Only Prometheus,and they deleted hammerpede scene and surgery scene as well as trilobite scene. Alien1-4 are only shown on some film festivals
PROMETHEUS was released in China in September with THE AMAZING SPIDERMAN and THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, and, people love superheros. :)

China has countless people like ALIEN series, so to speak.


Any idea on how popular the Alien series is in China? Wondering how much of an impact it will have all in all. Unless I am mistaken, Prometheus did not,appear in China cinemas and still managed to pull in 402 million at the box office, which is quite decent when comparing it to the budget (including marketing)... Not to mention the blu ray and digital sales.

Also, something IMPORTANT to keep in mind is that Prometheus was not an Alien film by name so that probably did not help it. Alien: Covenant is an obvious Alien film with a solid marketting campaign and will be releasing in a time when big budget R-rated films do quite well. I predict a worldwide Box Office success at $600 million easily. I see a lot of people hyped for the movie (anedoctal, yes, but still...). Commercially it will be a large success and critically the general audience will enjoy it and find it to be intense and fun to watch, while probably pretty divided amongst more hardcore alien fans.
PROMETHEUS was released in China in September with THE AMAZING SPIDERMAN and THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, and, people love superheros. :)

China has countless people like ALIEN series, so to speak.

Thanks for the information friend. It was released in Cinema?  Well, hope the same for Alien: Covenant...box office numbers aside, alien fans should get to enjoy the films as intended no matter their location. Hoping you get to see it soon!
Thanks for your wish, even if I can't see it in cinema then I'll buy a Blu-ray.

Whos_Nick

Covenant is opening in a pretty good window and I think the reviews/word of mouth will be really important. If it's a hit critically, I'll say it could crack 500 million worldwide. Fox has seen good success recently with R-Rated properties so hopefully that also helps out.

SuicideDoors

https://twitter.com/boxoffice/status/860197687706218496

Hopefully these guys are just full of shit and they haven't got a clue but they reckon Covenant is only tracking mid 30s/high 30s for opening weekend. I really think it has to open over $50million!

Richman678

I dont think Pirates is gonna be a huge hit. Johnny Depp has been striking out a lot lately. Plus every single one of them sucked after the first one....Plus Johhny Depp himself has a massive PR problem as well. I think Pirates is gonna be a dud....This does not mean I think Alien is gonna succeed just because of that.

As for Diary of Wimpy Kid. Well I am pretty sure people going to see that are not going to Alien Covenant at all.

Ragonk_Force

Ragonk_Force

#68
If baywatch makes more money than covenant, Im going to kill myself

SuicideDoors

Quote from: Ragonk_Force on May 04, 2017, 08:16:53 PM
If baywatch makes more money than covenant, Im going to kill myself

Alien vs Predator made $38million opening weekend back in the day. I don't care about increased piracy and staggered release windows, surely it must make more than that piece of shit?!

cucuchu

Quote from: Ragonk_Force on May 04, 2017, 08:16:53 PM
If baywatch makes more money than covenant, Im going to kill myself

Its got THE ROCK in it, a shirtless Dwayne Johnson in a bathing suit no less. Every housewife in America will see it 30 times at the cinema. Alien: Covenant never stood a chance.

Protozoid

Quote from: SuicideDoors on May 04, 2017, 08:01:26 PM
https://twitter.com/boxoffice/status/860197687706218496

Hopefully these guys are just full of shit and they haven't got a clue but they reckon Covenant is only tracking mid 30s/high 30s for opening weekend. I really think it has to open over $50million!
The opening weekend for Prometheus was expected to be in that same range, and iirc, it ended up making around $55M.

What numbers does this need to be considered a success? Better than Prometheus, I assume?

BishopShouldGo

It will climb to $70mm.

whiterabbit

The thing about China... remember people that this movie is being made for us and not them. The people who love hard R monster/sci-fi movies. It's the price that must be paid for such movies to be made. Otherwise everything would be micheal bay transformers garbage. I use the term garbage wholeheartedly because they are flat out bad films. Still I believe with history on our side that capital A in alien will pull us through.

SuicideDoors

Quote from: Protozoid on May 04, 2017, 08:29:29 PM
Quote from: SuicideDoors on May 04, 2017, 08:01:26 PM
https://twitter.com/boxoffice/status/860197687706218496

Hopefully these guys are just full of shit and they haven't got a clue but they reckon Covenant is only tracking mid 30s/high 30s for opening weekend. I really think it has to open over $50million!
The opening weekend for Prometheus was expected to be in that same range, and iirc, it ended up making around $55M.

What numbers does this need to be considered a success? Better than Prometheus, I assume?

I thought Prom was around 55 it was actually 51 though: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=prometheus.htm

I'd say it needs to match Prometheus figures bare minimum to have a sequel greenlit. Mid 30's for opening is precarious, because historically Alien films have never had legs since the first two. My instincts tell me Covenant will open north of $40mill but the tracking has me concerned (though like you rightly pointed out industry tracking isn't always correct)

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