As the film opens and actual numbers start coming in, I feel like this thread ought not be buried. My local IMAX is sticking with Guardians, sadly. I would've loved to see Covenant on the biggest of screens, although it being in 2D lessens that desire.
I honestly feel like anything less than the WW gross of Prometheus would be a disappointment. FOX clearly has confidence in the picture, although they gave themselves a small cushion by cutting back on the budget. Still, they've gone the route of "course correction" so to speak and heavily advertised that Alien aspects of the film. We're not talking about "Paradise". Beyond the converted, they're clearly marketing to general audiences who remember their love of Alien & Aliens, who possibly didn't see Prometheus or even know that there's any connection.
I have trouble believing that FOX would even green light this project if they didn't expect it to outperform Prometheus, or worst case scenario, perform at that same level. The pre Memorial Day weekend is historically a good place to be, so they've set it up for success. It looks like the RT score is settling in at 75% which in my eyes counts as win given the type of film it is & all the baggage the franchise carries with it. FOX may circle back to Alien eventually if this film underperforms, b/c IP recognition reigns supreme, but this is a good litmus test of popularity.