Alien: Covenant Box Office Performance

Started by John73, May 14, 2017, 05:51:54 PM

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Alien: Covenant Box Office Performance (Read 273,520 times)

Darth Vile

Anybody thinking Covenant is/will be a box office flop doesn't know how to count. A US opening weekend of circa $40M + will be viewed as successful. It's certainly doing well in Europe... and when one factors in anticipsted home cinema sales, the next film is pretty much green lit.

cucuchu

Quote from: Darth Vile on May 20, 2017, 03:32:05 PM
Anybody thinking Covenant is/will be a box office flop doesn't know how to count. A US opening weekend of circa $40M + will be viewed as successful. It's certainly doing well in Europe... and when one factors in anticipsted home cinema sales, the next film is pretty much green lit.

Ridley Scott certainly seems to think so given his enthusiasm in recent interviews for getting the next film out and his determination to shoot in 13 months from now.

Spidey3121

While I had originally seen Covenant's budget listed at ~$110 mil I've seen more than 1 site in the past week list it at $97 mil. Interesting discrepancy. The lower the budget, the less it has to make, obviously. Either one would represent a come down from Prometheus's reported $130 mil. I don't think we're in any danger of Covenant being a flop, but it's success, or relative lack thereof, will likely dictate how much money FOX is willing to spend on a sequel.

Corporal Hicks

Scott reported it as 111 (I think), Fox reported it as 90 something.

Spidey3121

Quote from: Corporal Hicks on May 20, 2017, 04:19:13 PM
Scott reported it as 111 (I think), Fox reported it as 90 something.

Interesting. I guess I'll take FOX"s word on it, though studios aren't necessarily the most trustworthy! Operating at 75% of Prometheus's the budget gives Covenant quite a cushion.

cucuchu

Quote from: Spidey3121 on May 20, 2017, 04:44:08 PM
Quote from: Corporal Hicks on May 20, 2017, 04:19:13 PM
Scott reported it as 111 (I think), Fox reported it as 90 something.

Interesting. I guess I'll take FOX"s word on it, though studios aren't necessarily the most trustworthy! Operating at 75% of Prometheus's the budget gives Covenant quite a cushion.

Hope Covenant does well enough when all is said and done to warrant a budget similar to Covenant for the next film. I don't know what direction Ridley Scott is heading with the final film, as there are MANY interesting ways to tie this all up, but I gaurantee you that none of them will be cheap.

Ectomorph

Very pleased to hear the film is doing so well - the worldwide numbers from last week definitely gave me hope! I'm rooting for Scott to make due on his promise to make six more Alien films now. I hope he has it in him.

PierreVW

Quote from: Ectomorph on May 20, 2017, 05:20:49 PM
Very pleased to hear the film is doing so well - the worldwide numbers from last week definitely gave me hope! I'm rooting for Scott to make due on his promise to make six more Alien films now. I hope he has it in him.

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/box-office-alien-covenant-opening-guardians-2-1202438525/

40.2 Millions in USA!.

Good news! 8)

Corporal Hicks

It hasn't taken that just yet, it's just on track to take the predicted amount.

bb-15

bb-15

#159
Quote from: PierreVW on May 20, 2017, 05:24:22 PM
Quote from: Ectomorph on May 20, 2017, 05:20:49 PM
Very pleased to hear the film is doing so well - the worldwide numbers from last week definitely gave me hope! I'm rooting for Scott to make due on his promise to make six more Alien films now. I hope he has it in him.

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/box-office-alien-covenant-opening-guardians-2-1202438525/

40.2 Millions in USA!.

Good news! 8)

The news is very good. Here is what Box Office Mojo has so far.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=alienparadiselost.htm

QuoteProduction Budget: $97 million

This is outstanding work by Ridley to keep costs low.
Double this with a box office number (~$200 million) and the production costs are paid. (Studios keep ~1/2 of box office money while the theaters get their share.)
- Next would be marketing costs which might be about $50 million. I'm guessing since studios rarely release those numbers these days.
My guess is that if "Covenant" can get to $300 million box office, that it will be making a profit in theaters. (I've got formulas for this but I won't bore people with that here unless someone asks me.) :)
- Then there is the money from streaming, disk sales, TV broadcasts, toys, etc.
"Covenant" will make money and there will be another new Alien film.

Worldwide box office numbers up through Friday, May 19;

Quote(US):    $15,350,000      
+ (outside US): $46,668,253      
= Worldwide:    $62,018,253

;)    

PS. I ran the numbers for a total budget of about $150 million for "Covenant" which includes marketing costs.
The worldwide box office number it would have to reach with the formula I have is ~$263 million to definitely make a profit in theaters.

SNL Kagan has a formula to show when a movie has definitely made money.
It is 1.75 times the total budget.
$150 million x 1.75 = $262.5 million
http://www.deadline.com/2013/01/movie-profits-december-snl-kagan/

cucuchu

Quote from: bb-15 on May 20, 2017, 05:46:38 PM
Quote from: PierreVW on May 20, 2017, 05:24:22 PM
Quote from: Ectomorph on May 20, 2017, 05:20:49 PM
Very pleased to hear the film is doing so well - the worldwide numbers from last week definitely gave me hope! I'm rooting for Scott to make due on his promise to make six more Alien films now. I hope he has it in him.

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/box-office-alien-covenant-opening-guardians-2-1202438525/

40.2 Millions in USA!.

Good news! 8)

The news is very good. Here is what Box Office Mojo has so far.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=alienparadiselost.htm

QuoteProduction Budget: $97 million

This is outstanding work by Ridley to keep costs low.
Double this with a box office number (~$200 million) and the production costs are paid. (Studios keep ~1/2 of box office money while the theaters get their share.)
- Next would be marketing costs which might be about $50 million. I'm guessing since studios rarely release those numbers these days.
My guess is that if "Covenant" can get to $300 million box office, that it will be making a profit in theaters. (I've got formulas for this but I won't bore people with that here unless someone asks me.) :)
- Then there is the money from streaming, disk sales, TV broadcasts, toys, etc.
"Covenant" will make money and there will be another new Alien film.

Worldwide box office numbers up through Friday;

Quote(US):    $15,350,000      
+ (outside US): $46,668,253      
= Worldwide:    $62,018,253

;)   

Good points and yes I am optimistic myself.

Those of us seeing the movie 3+ times certainly are helping :) Luckily there is so much going on in the movie that it lends itself well to multiple viewings. I hope Ridley Scott pays attention to critics though because while I REALLY enjoy Covenant, I want the next film to appease those with issues with it. Even the Xeno origin can be expanded, where as David merely copied an existing idea, anything....point it, the next movie can still follow the same plot line but manage to fix things.

𝔗𝔥𝔢 𝔈𝔦𝔤𝔥𝔱𝔥 𝔓𝔞𝔰𝔰𝔢𝔫𝔤𝔢𝔯

Quote from: bb-15 on May 20, 2017, 05:46:38 PM
- Next would be marketing costs which might be about $50 million. I'm guessing since studios rarely release those numbers these days.

Was certainly way more than that.

Robopadna what was your estimate again?

bb-15

Quote from: cucuchu on May 20, 2017, 05:53:23 PMGood points and yes I am optimistic myself...
Luckily there is so much going on in the movie that it lends itself well to multiple viewings.

Yes.

Quote from: cucuchu on May 20, 2017, 05:53:23 PMI want the next film to appease those with issues with it. Even the Xeno origin can be expanded, where as David merely copied an existing idea, anything....point it, the next movie can still follow the same plot line but manage to fix things.

* Ridley needs to be true to himself imo.
He doesn't over explain things in "Blade Runner", "Prometheus" and "Covenant".
- So, what is the answer to what David said in "Covenant"?
The film theory which explains it is this.
1. David in "Covenant" has delusions of grandeur.
2. David in "Covenant" is a compulsive liar.
* This tells the viewer that whatever David said about the xenomorph origins should not be trusted.

* Scott has put ample evidence in "Covenant" about David's delusions and lies.
Imo there is nothing to fix about whatever David said in the new movie.

;)

PierreVW

Quote from: bb-15 on May 20, 2017, 10:16:22 PM
Quote from: cucuchu on May 20, 2017, 05:53:23 PMGood points and yes I am optimistic myself...
Luckily there is so much going on in the movie that it lends itself well to multiple viewings.

Yes.

Quote from: cucuchu on May 20, 2017, 05:53:23 PMI want the next film to appease those with issues with it. Even the Xeno origin can be expanded, where as David merely copied an existing idea, anything....point it, the next movie can still follow the same plot line but manage to fix things.

* Ridley needs to be true to himself imo.
He doesn't over explain things in "Blade Runner", "Prometheus" and "Covenant".
- So, what is the answer to what David said in "Covenant"?
The film theory which explains it is this.
1. David in "Covenant" has delusions of grandeur.
2. David in "Covenant" is a compulsive liar.
* This tells the viewer that whatever David said about the xenomorph origins should not be trusted.

* Scott has put ample evidence in "Covenant" about David's delusions and lies.
Imo there is nothing to fix about whatever David said in the new movie.

;)

I agree.

It's very interesting that David sees himself as THE GOD and at the same time he forgotten about his favorites books and authors.

Maybe David has Alzeihmer? ???

echobbase79


Quote from: PierreVW on May 21, 2017, 12:12:58 AM
Quote from: bb-15 on May 20, 2017, 10:16:22 PM
Quote from: cucuchu on May 20, 2017, 05:53:23 PMGood points and yes I am optimistic myself...
Luckily there is so much going on in the movie that it lends itself well to multiple viewings.

Yes.

Quote from: cucuchu on May 20, 2017, 05:53:23 PMI want the next film to appease those with issues with it. Even the Xeno origin can be expanded, where as David merely copied an existing idea, anything....point it, the next movie can still follow the same plot line but manage to fix things.

* Ridley needs to be true to himself imo.
He doesn't over explain things in "Blade Runner", "Prometheus" and "Covenant".
- So, what is the answer to what David said in "Covenant"?
The film theory which explains it is this.
1. David in "Covenant" has delusions of grandeur.
2. David in "Covenant" is a compulsive liar.
* This tells the viewer that whatever David said about the xenomorph origins should not be trusted.

* Scott has put ample evidence in "Covenant" about David's delusions and lies.
Imo there is nothing to fix about whatever David said in the new movie.

;)

I agree.

It's very interesting that David sees himself as THE GOD and at the same time he forgotten about his favorites books and authors.

Maybe David has Alzeihmer? ???

In a way you're right, but I think it's that his A.I. is starting to have glitches.

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