Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!

[oduodu]

Can't find any for China either.

[Salt The Fries]

If I knew what Prometheus did in China would that be an indication of what to expect from Covenant over there?

I don't know.  China is one of the fastest growing markets for Hollywood so my general assumption is that it would probably do better now than Prometheus did.  However, pirating is a huge deal in China and if they don't get the same release date, or earlier, movies tend to suffer a bit there.  That being said, I can't find numbers for Prometheus in China so who knows? 

Can't find any for China either.

If I knew what Prometheus did in China would that be an indication of what to expect from Covenant over there?

I don't know.  China is one of the fastest growing markets for Hollywood so my general assumption is that it would probably do better now than Prometheus did.  However, pirating is a huge deal in China and if they don't get the same release date, or earlier, movies tend to suffer a bit there.  That being said, I can't find numbers for Prometheus in China so who knows? 

Prometheus raked in less than $50m there (https://chinafilmbiz.com/2013/01/13/chinas-box-office-2012-re-cap-another-stellar-year/), and it opened with $4.59m (http://english.entgroup.cn/views_detail.aspx?id=767). The range is huge. But it is between this and that figure.

[Robopadna]

https://twitter.com/boxoffice/status/860197687706218496

Hopefully these guys are just full of shit and they haven't got a clue but they reckon Covenant is only tracking mid 30s/high 30s for opening weekend. I really think it has to open over $50million!

They are usually pretty accurate and have their own models (which aren't all that complicated) that take into account release window, genre, franchise, competition and some polling information.  They may even have access to some meta data raked from the internet.  Overall they usually produce a pretty accurate estimate, but occasionally they under/over shoot.

Someone else asked how much a movie has to make to 'break even'.  A general rule of thumb is that the studio will take, approximately, 50% of the US market (front heavy) and approximately 33% of the foreign market (varying wildly by country with China being exceptionally low ~ 25%).

I do not know what the estimated budget is here but I have heard rumors of it being around 150 million dollars.  That doesn't include marketing/distribution so that would add on another 80+ (Matt Damon's Great Wall movie had an 80 million dollar marketing campaign and Covenant seems more visible).

Essentially the number to hit is roughly 200-250 million. 

.5*(NA B.O.) + .25(Chinas B.O.) + .4 (Non China foreign B.O.) = studio's take.

Let's assume it mimics Prometheus (which I think is generous)...  the studio's take on Prometheus was roughly: 63 million domestic and 111 million WW for a total of 174 million.

250m seems the magic number in my mind.  It'll make that.  Now that it is confirmed for a Chinese release, it's do Prometheus type money.  It's not going to be another deadpool as that has massive crossover market people super interested in it.  This is a straight up sci-fi/horror flick with some cross over potential.

It will lose to Baywatch like Fury Road lost to Pitch Perfect 2 (in the end Fury Road made near 100m more than Pitch Perfect 2 as few people outside of the USA give a f**k about that kinda shit).  The final number breakdown will also be the same.  1/3rd from the Domestic market, and 2/3rds international.  $375-$410m total.  That is the comfort zone for these kinda movies.  Fox will be happy and there will be a sequel ok instantly.  Hopefully they can start filming it quickly and get it out by 2019.

When I say 200-250, that is the number the studio has to get from THEIR CUT of the B.O.  Which means the B.O. has to be considerably higher.

If it does 150 dom and 300 WW then the studio will pocket roughly 75+120 = about 200 million, at best.  If China is the majority of that then the studio will get less.

My guess is they need about 550 total (including domestic and foreign) to break even/start to feel good.

Does this factor in tax breaks and all that?  We have the budget upfront but I always thought that was before shooting incentives, tax breaks, product/company placement and all that shit.  We know they fronted 150m on the film, but how much of that is recoverable even before the movie hits?

This is the side I've never found a ton of information on. The "what comes first" part of it.  I get it on indie pictures but for something with this sort of money being tossed at it, i'd be interested in know the full processes.  Hollywood math fascinates me.

Since you were asking, I looked up some of the dvd sales as an example of how much more a movie can add to it's profitability through that avenue.

Through 2016 and 2017 deadpool made an additional 92 million in blu ray and dvd sales.  The force awakens made nearly 180 million dollars in sales.  Those are both extreme examples but it shows you how valuable that market really is.  Again, it doesn't help the studio in showing people how valuable their franchise is, but it helps make up for a lot of losses.

[Protozoid]

Prometheus ranked higher on the domestic home video charts than it did theatrically.  It was a top seller and renter and had good legs.

[Robopadna]

Prometheus ranked higher on the domestic home video charts than it did theatrically.  It was a top seller and renter and had good legs.

It made roughly 40 million dollars through dvd and blu ray sales.

Looks like it was the 12th best seller in blu rays in 2012 and 65th in dvd sales.

Overall it made 40 million and that is nearly 10% of the box office.  That's a good addition.

[oduodu]

Ok thanks. 50mil for prometheus in china.

[Protozoid]

I wonder if this is tracking low. I don't see why they would distance themselves from Prometheus if they were aiming lower, box office wise. I thought this move was motivated by Star Wars and the rise of IP. They were hoping for big numbers based on the legacy of the Alien movies.  Surely Prometheus 2 and/or Alien 5 would have done at least this well?

[Ingwar]

Prometheus ranked higher on the domestic home video charts than it did theatrically.  It was a top seller and renter and had good legs.

It made roughly 40 million dollars through dvd and blu ray sales.

Looks like it was the 12th best seller in blu rays in 2012 and 65th in dvd sales.

Overall it made 40 million and that is nearly 10% of the box office.  That's a good addition.

It made 43 millions from DVD/Blu-ray sales in US. We don't know how much it made worldwide. Is it even possible to find that out?

[Spidey3121]

Been away for several months. Was hoping to start the discussion on Box Office projections as I had done w/ Prometheus but see I'm WAY to late 

http://www.avpgalaxy.net/forum/index.php?topic=43861.0

I listed 5 sites for Prometheus. These days I pretty much rely on Box Office Mojo (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/) and a Forbes writer, Scott Mendelson (https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/#da8c37227e19). Both are available to follow on Twitter. Scott writes a lot, whereas Mojo is a comprehensive collection of numbers. Of course, there are many other people & sites that devote a wealth of time to tracking & reporting BO information.

FOX is certainly confident as shown by moving the release date from August to the pre-memorial day weekend. They've sure been promoting it quite enthusiastically as well. As for my personal predication, I'd like to be hopeful and believe that it will surpass both the domestic and international totals for Prometheus. Let's say: $60 mil opening weekend, $150 mil domestic total, $500 mil WW total.

Also, something to keep in mind; we love the franchise, but to the general public, there hasn't been an outright hit film, both from a financial & critical perspective, in 30 years. Prometheus pulled solid numbers, & I'm of the opinion that it's very good. Many share that opinion, but many do not. Reaction was incredibly divisive. FOX is banking on brand recognition & nostalgia to pull in audiences. Sometimes that works (Jurassic World) & sometimes that doesn't (ID4 Resurgence).

[dkwookie]

If I was to talk about the box office situation I fear we are looking at Parker and Brett rather than Ripley and Dallas. I would love to see it do 40 million opening in the US but fear it's going to under 30.
I just have a bad feeling about it

[newagescamartist]

If I was to talk about the box office situation I fear we are looking at Parker and Brett rather than Ripley and Dallas. I would love to see it do 40 million opening in the US but fear it's going to under 30.
I just have a bad feeling about it

Might be the last Alien movie we get for awhile if it opens at less than $30 million.

[Corporal Hicks]

Has there been any updates considering the first reviews?

[Protozoid]

I wish I knew what was going through the minds of the people at Fox and Scott Free during process of making and releasing Covenant.

Do they feel justified in amping up the violence and franchise appeal if this movie doesn't have a prayer of matching the box office for The Martian?

If it doesn't match Prometheus, I imagine Noomi Rapace is going to ring everyone at Fox and Scott Free to tell them she told them so.

Ridley should really stick to his guns from now on. Commercial success is never guaranteed. He should be following his bliss at this stage of his career.

Has there been any updates considering the first reviews?

I don't know if this has been posted, yet, but BoxOffice.com did up their estimates slightly:

$40M opening weekend
$105M domestic total.

They noted: "First traditional tracking and social media buzz have improved our outlook for Alien: Covenant. Positive reviews will still be important to its success, though."

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-transformers-last-knight/

[PierreVW]

I predict 500 Million USD Worldwide.

That's HIGHER than PROMETHEUS.

[BishopShouldGo]

I wish I knew what was going through the minds of the people at Fox and Scott Free during process of making and releasing Covenant.

Do they feel justified in amping up the violence and franchise appeal if this movie doesn't have a prayer of matching the box office for The Martian?

If it doesn't match Prometheus, I imagine Noomi Rapace is going to ring everyone at Fox and Scott Free to tell them she told them so.

Ridley should really stick to his guns from now on. Commercial success is never guaranteed. He should be following his bliss at this stage of his career.

Has there been any updates considering the first reviews?

I don't know if this has been posted, yet, but BoxOffice.com did up their estimates slightly:

$40M opening weekend
$105M domestic total.

They noted: "First traditional tracking and social media buzz have improved our outlook for Alien: Covenant. Positive reviews will still be important to its success, though."

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-transformers-last-knight/

I think The Force Awakens, The Martian and Deadpool all had a hand in emboldening Scott and Fox to make what ultimately became Covenant. The Force Awakens inspired Scott to go back to the roots, The Martian being a massive success further solidified Fox's confidence in Scott, and Deadpool with the tough R-rating and extreme violence.