Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!

Started by Pvt. Himmel, Mar 25, 2017, 05:03:28 PM

What do you think of Box office.Com's prediction??

It will be waaay higher than that!!
34 (66.7%)
That's just about right!!
12 (23.5%)
This will be looower than projected numbers!!
5 (9.8%)

Total Members Voted: 51

Author
Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!! (Read 23,420 times)

fiveways

I said prometheus numbers in the previous thread.  I actually think it will do less.  I seriously know very few people with any interest in this movie.

Hell, no one i know bother to go to the theatre anymore.  They will just wait a couple weeks and watch it with Korean subtitles.

WinsteadLeung

Quote from: cucuchu on Apr 30, 2017, 01:01:01 AM
Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 30, 2017, 12:57:34 AM
Quote from: cucuchu on Apr 29, 2017, 03:01:47 PM
Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 29, 2017, 12:52:20 PM
Quote from: juxtapose on Apr 29, 2017, 05:49:38 AM
Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 29, 2017, 03:15:44 AM
I really envy you guys.
COVENANT may not be released in China, even if the bloody scenes are deleted.
well if thats the case then it will definately hurt the box office. .but why would it not be released in china. .all the other alien movies was released their?
Only Prometheus,and they deleted hammerpede scene and surgery scene as well as trilobite scene. Alien1-4 are only shown on some film festivals
PROMETHEUS was released in China in September with THE AMAZING SPIDERMAN and THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, and, people love superheros. :)

China has countless people like ALIEN series, so to speak.


Any idea on how popular the Alien series is in China? Wondering how much of an impact it will have all in all. Unless I am mistaken, Prometheus did not,appear in China cinemas and still managed to pull in 402 million at the box office, which is quite decent when comparing it to the budget (including marketing)... Not to mention the blu ray and digital sales.

Also, something IMPORTANT to keep in mind is that Prometheus was not an Alien film by name so that probably did not help it. Alien: Covenant is an obvious Alien film with a solid marketting campaign and will be releasing in a time when big budget R-rated films do quite well. I predict a worldwide Box Office success at $600 million easily. I see a lot of people hyped for the movie (anedoctal, yes, but still...). Commercially it will be a large success and critically the general audience will enjoy it and find it to be intense and fun to watch, while probably pretty divided amongst more hardcore alien fans.
PROMETHEUS was released in China in September with THE AMAZING SPIDERMAN and THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, and, people love superheros. :)

China has countless people like ALIEN series, so to speak.

Thanks for the information friend. It was released in Cinema?  Well, hope the same for Alien: Covenant...box office numbers aside, alien fans should get to enjoy the films as intended no matter their location. Hoping you get to see it soon!
COVENANT will be released in CHINA. ;D ;D ;D (but FOX haven't announce the release date.) I'm so excited !!!

juxtapose

thats awesome news. . .i am less worried about how well it's going to do now!. .lots of movies have been saved due to the fact that they did well in china. .and some that was'nt released in the middle kingdom suffered as a result. .

Robopadna

Quote from: SuicideDoors on May 04, 2017, 08:01:26 PM
https://twitter.com/boxoffice/status/860197687706218496

Hopefully these guys are just full of shit and they haven't got a clue but they reckon Covenant is only tracking mid 30s/high 30s for opening weekend. I really think it has to open over $50million!

They are usually pretty accurate and have their own models (which aren't all that complicated) that take into account release window, genre, franchise, competition and some polling information.  They may even have access to some meta data raked from the internet.  Overall they usually produce a pretty accurate estimate, but occasionally they under/over shoot.

Someone else asked how much a movie has to make to 'break even'.  A general rule of thumb is that the studio will take, approximately, 50% of the US market (front heavy) and approximately 33% of the foreign market (varying wildly by country with China being exceptionally low ~ 25%).

I do not know what the estimated budget is here but I have heard rumors of it being around 150 million dollars.  That doesn't include marketing/distribution so that would add on another 80+ (Matt Damon's Great Wall movie had an 80 million dollar marketing campaign and Covenant seems more visible).

Essentially the number to hit is roughly 200-250 million. 

.5*(NA B.O.) + .25(Chinas B.O.) + .4 (Non China foreign B.O.) = studio's take.

Let's assume it mimics Prometheus (which I think is generous)...  the studio's take on Prometheus was roughly: 63 million domestic and 111 million WW for a total of 174 million.

Kane's other son

The movie's currently tracking for a mid-30's opening weekend, but we're still 2 weeks away from opening day.
If the reviews are decent and taking into account the last minute marketing push, it should do over $40 million. If the movie's well received and the second weekend drop is not as steep as Prometheus, it should end its run with Mad Max numbers ($45 million opening, around $150 million total US gross).
The big bucks will come from international markets, in any case.

fiveways

Quote from: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 12:20:41 PM
Quote from: SuicideDoors on May 04, 2017, 08:01:26 PM
https://twitter.com/boxoffice/status/860197687706218496

Hopefully these guys are just full of shit and they haven't got a clue but they reckon Covenant is only tracking mid 30s/high 30s for opening weekend. I really think it has to open over $50million!

They are usually pretty accurate and have their own models (which aren't all that complicated) that take into account release window, genre, franchise, competition and some polling information.  They may even have access to some meta data raked from the internet.  Overall they usually produce a pretty accurate estimate, but occasionally they under/over shoot.

Someone else asked how much a movie has to make to 'break even'.  A general rule of thumb is that the studio will take, approximately, 50% of the US market (front heavy) and approximately 33% of the foreign market (varying wildly by country with China being exceptionally low ~ 25%).

I do not know what the estimated budget is here but I have heard rumors of it being around 150 million dollars.  That doesn't include marketing/distribution so that would add on another 80+ (Matt Damon's Great Wall movie had an 80 million dollar marketing campaign and Covenant seems more visible).

Essentially the number to hit is roughly 200-250 million. 

.5*(NA B.O.) + .25(Chinas B.O.) + .4 (Non China foreign B.O.) = studio's take.

Let's assume it mimics Prometheus (which I think is generous)...  the studio's take on Prometheus was roughly: 63 million domestic and 111 million WW for a total of 174 million.

250m seems the magic number in my mind.  It'll make that.  Now that it is confirmed for a Chinese release, it's do Prometheus type money.  It's not going to be another deadpool as that has massive crossover market people super interested in it.  This is a straight up sci-fi/horror flick with some cross over potential.

It will lose to Baywatch like Fury Road lost to Pitch Perfect 2 (in the end Fury Road made near 100m more than Pitch Perfect 2 as few people outside of the USA give a f**k about that kinda shit).  The final number breakdown will also be the same.  1/3rd from the Domestic market, and 2/3rds international.  $375-$410m total.  That is the comfort zone for these kinda movies.  Fox will be happy and there will be a sequel ok instantly.  Hopefully they can start filming it quickly and get it out by 2019. 

Robopadna

Quote from: fiveways on May 05, 2017, 01:14:18 PM
Quote from: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 12:20:41 PM
Quote from: SuicideDoors on May 04, 2017, 08:01:26 PM
https://twitter.com/boxoffice/status/860197687706218496

Hopefully these guys are just full of shit and they haven't got a clue but they reckon Covenant is only tracking mid 30s/high 30s for opening weekend. I really think it has to open over $50million!

They are usually pretty accurate and have their own models (which aren't all that complicated) that take into account release window, genre, franchise, competition and some polling information.  They may even have access to some meta data raked from the internet.  Overall they usually produce a pretty accurate estimate, but occasionally they under/over shoot.

Someone else asked how much a movie has to make to 'break even'.  A general rule of thumb is that the studio will take, approximately, 50% of the US market (front heavy) and approximately 33% of the foreign market (varying wildly by country with China being exceptionally low ~ 25%).

I do not know what the estimated budget is here but I have heard rumors of it being around 150 million dollars.  That doesn't include marketing/distribution so that would add on another 80+ (Matt Damon's Great Wall movie had an 80 million dollar marketing campaign and Covenant seems more visible).

Essentially the number to hit is roughly 200-250 million. 

.5*(NA B.O.) + .25(Chinas B.O.) + .4 (Non China foreign B.O.) = studio's take.

Let's assume it mimics Prometheus (which I think is generous)...  the studio's take on Prometheus was roughly: 63 million domestic and 111 million WW for a total of 174 million.

250m seems the magic number in my mind.  It'll make that.  Now that it is confirmed for a Chinese release, it's do Prometheus type money.  It's not going to be another deadpool as that has massive crossover market people super interested in it.  This is a straight up sci-fi/horror flick with some cross over potential.

It will lose to Baywatch like Fury Road lost to Pitch Perfect 2 (in the end Fury Road made near 100m more than Pitch Perfect 2 as few people outside of the USA give a f**k about that kinda shit).  The final number breakdown will also be the same.  1/3rd from the Domestic market, and 2/3rds international.  $375-$410m total.  That is the comfort zone for these kinda movies.  Fox will be happy and there will be a sequel ok instantly.  Hopefully they can start filming it quickly and get it out by 2019.

When I say 200-250, that is the number the studio has to get from THEIR CUT of the B.O.  Which means the B.O. has to be considerably higher.

If it does 150 dom and 300 WW then the studio will pocket roughly 75+120 = about 200 million, at best.  If China is the majority of that then the studio will get less.

My guess is they need about 550 total (including domestic and foreign) to break even/start to feel good.

fiveways

Quote from: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 01:25:50 PM
Quote from: fiveways on May 05, 2017, 01:14:18 PM
Quote from: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 12:20:41 PM
Quote from: SuicideDoors on May 04, 2017, 08:01:26 PM
https://twitter.com/boxoffice/status/860197687706218496

Hopefully these guys are just full of shit and they haven't got a clue but they reckon Covenant is only tracking mid 30s/high 30s for opening weekend. I really think it has to open over $50million!

They are usually pretty accurate and have their own models (which aren't all that complicated) that take into account release window, genre, franchise, competition and some polling information.  They may even have access to some meta data raked from the internet.  Overall they usually produce a pretty accurate estimate, but occasionally they under/over shoot.

Someone else asked how much a movie has to make to 'break even'.  A general rule of thumb is that the studio will take, approximately, 50% of the US market (front heavy) and approximately 33% of the foreign market (varying wildly by country with China being exceptionally low ~ 25%).

I do not know what the estimated budget is here but I have heard rumors of it being around 150 million dollars.  That doesn't include marketing/distribution so that would add on another 80+ (Matt Damon's Great Wall movie had an 80 million dollar marketing campaign and Covenant seems more visible).

Essentially the number to hit is roughly 200-250 million. 

.5*(NA B.O.) + .25(Chinas B.O.) + .4 (Non China foreign B.O.) = studio's take.

Let's assume it mimics Prometheus (which I think is generous)...  the studio's take on Prometheus was roughly: 63 million domestic and 111 million WW for a total of 174 million.

250m seems the magic number in my mind.  It'll make that.  Now that it is confirmed for a Chinese release, it's do Prometheus type money.  It's not going to be another deadpool as that has massive crossover market people super interested in it.  This is a straight up sci-fi/horror flick with some cross over potential.

It will lose to Baywatch like Fury Road lost to Pitch Perfect 2 (in the end Fury Road made near 100m more than Pitch Perfect 2 as few people outside of the USA give a f**k about that kinda shit).  The final number breakdown will also be the same.  1/3rd from the Domestic market, and 2/3rds international.  $375-$410m total.  That is the comfort zone for these kinda movies.  Fox will be happy and there will be a sequel ok instantly.  Hopefully they can start filming it quickly and get it out by 2019.

When I say 200-250, that is the number the studio has to get from THEIR CUT of the B.O.  Which means the B.O. has to be considerably higher.

If it does 150 dom and 300 WW then the studio will pocket roughly 75+120 = about 200 million, at best.  If China is the majority of that then the studio will get less.

My guess is they need about 550 total (including domestic and foreign) to break even/start to feel good.

Does this factor in tax breaks and all that?  We have the budget upfront but I always thought that was before shooting incentives, tax breaks, product/company placement and all that shit.  We know they fronted 150m on the film, but how much of that is recoverable even before the movie hits?

This is the side I've never found a ton of information on. The "what comes first" part of it.  I get it on indie pictures but for something with this sort of money being tossed at it, i'd be interested in know the full processes.  Hollywood math fascinates me.

Robopadna

Robopadna

#83
Quote from: fiveways on May 05, 2017, 01:37:41 PM
Quote from: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 01:25:50 PM
Quote from: fiveways on May 05, 2017, 01:14:18 PM
Quote from: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 12:20:41 PM
Quote from: SuicideDoors on May 04, 2017, 08:01:26 PM
https://twitter.com/boxoffice/status/860197687706218496

Hopefully these guys are just full of shit and they haven't got a clue but they reckon Covenant is only tracking mid 30s/high 30s for opening weekend. I really think it has to open over $50million!

They are usually pretty accurate and have their own models (which aren't all that complicated) that take into account release window, genre, franchise, competition and some polling information.  They may even have access to some meta data raked from the internet.  Overall they usually produce a pretty accurate estimate, but occasionally they under/over shoot.

Someone else asked how much a movie has to make to 'break even'.  A general rule of thumb is that the studio will take, approximately, 50% of the US market (front heavy) and approximately 33% of the foreign market (varying wildly by country with China being exceptionally low ~ 25%).

I do not know what the estimated budget is here but I have heard rumors of it being around 150 million dollars.  That doesn't include marketing/distribution so that would add on another 80+ (Matt Damon's Great Wall movie had an 80 million dollar marketing campaign and Covenant seems more visible).

Essentially the number to hit is roughly 200-250 million. 

.5*(NA B.O.) + .25(Chinas B.O.) + .4 (Non China foreign B.O.) = studio's take.

Let's assume it mimics Prometheus (which I think is generous)...  the studio's take on Prometheus was roughly: 63 million domestic and 111 million WW for a total of 174 million.

250m seems the magic number in my mind.  It'll make that.  Now that it is confirmed for a Chinese release, it's do Prometheus type money.  It's not going to be another deadpool as that has massive crossover market people super interested in it.  This is a straight up sci-fi/horror flick with some cross over potential.

It will lose to Baywatch like Fury Road lost to Pitch Perfect 2 (in the end Fury Road made near 100m more than Pitch Perfect 2 as few people outside of the USA give a f**k about that kinda shit).  The final number breakdown will also be the same.  1/3rd from the Domestic market, and 2/3rds international.  $375-$410m total.  That is the comfort zone for these kinda movies.  Fox will be happy and there will be a sequel ok instantly.  Hopefully they can start filming it quickly and get it out by 2019.

When I say 200-250, that is the number the studio has to get from THEIR CUT of the B.O.  Which means the B.O. has to be considerably higher.

If it does 150 dom and 300 WW then the studio will pocket roughly 75+120 = about 200 million, at best.  If China is the majority of that then the studio will get less.

My guess is they need about 550 total (including domestic and foreign) to break even/start to feel good.

Does this factor in tax breaks and all that?  We have the budget upfront but I always thought that was before shooting incentives, tax breaks, product/company placement and all that shit.  We know they fronted 150m on the film, but how much of that is recoverable even before the movie hits?

This is the side I've never found a ton of information on. The "what comes first" part of it.  I get it on indie pictures but for something with this sort of money being tossed at it, i'd be interested in know the full processes.  Hollywood math fascinates me.

No, I didn't include them and you are right, there are tax rebates, incentives and marketing deals (AMD and Audi? in this case) that subsidize the film to some degree.

To minimize their risk even further they can sell the distribution rights to any number of markets to recover large percentages back before the film is finished.  Then they have the dvd/blu ray/redbox and on demand sales (and other methods) for the additional revenue.  Those can be substantial.

Even with all of that, they really want the revenue in the B.O. so they can brag.  Perception means a lot and it's hard to, after the fact, try to convey the message that the movie was disappointing in the B.O. but made up for it with these obscure revenue streams that often times have little to do with audience demand to see it.

SuicideDoors

Thanks for all the info, Robopadna. How do you think it'll end up doing?

Robopadna

Quote from: SuicideDoors on May 05, 2017, 04:06:21 PM
Thanks for all the info, Robopadna. How do you think it'll end up doing?

Like I said, those guys do a pretty good job of estimating the box office results.  I think it's working against a few things.  The general perception of Prometheus was not particularly favorable (even if you individually liked it) and, because of that movie, it no longer has the hook of Scott returning to the alien franchise to build expectations.  On top of all that, I think the audience for hard R violent sci fi movies is not particularly large when compared to other movies and that will limit it.  On the pro side, its advertising is leaning heavily towards not acknowledging any connection to Prometheus (even Fassbender is very limited in his ad time) and strongly pushing the ties to Alien.

Personally I feel it's probably tracking for 35-50 OW and the week to week change will largely depend on reviews (of which we don't have any currently).  If it pulls in 35 it will be a struggle to hit 100, even with good reviews, and I imagine that would be pretty embarrassing to the studio.

SuicideDoors

SuicideDoors

#86
Quote from: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 05:57:26 PM
Quote from: SuicideDoors on May 05, 2017, 04:06:21 PM
Thanks for all the info, Robopadna. How do you think it'll end up doing?

Like I said, those guys do a pretty good job of estimating the box office results.  I think it's working against a few things.  The general perception of Prometheus was not particularly favorable (even if you individually liked it) and, because of that movie, it no longer has the hook of Scott returning to the alien franchise to build expectations.  On top of all that, I think the audience for hard R violent sci fi movies is not particularly large when compared to other movies and that will limit it.  On the pro side, its advertising is leaning heavily towards not acknowledging any connection to Prometheus (even Fassbender is very limited in his ad time) and strongly pushing the ties to Alien.

Personally I feel it's probably tracking for 35-50 OW and the week to week change will largely depend on reviews (of which we don't have any currently).  If it pulls in 35 it will be a struggle to hit 100, even with good reviews, and I imagine that would be pretty embarrassing to the studio.

I've been tweeting pro box office and they seem to think Guardians is effecting its tracking as everyone is going on about that and going quieter about Covenant. They seem optimistic it could reach 50 with decent reviews (which i know you've just echoed).


https://twitter.com/ShawnRobbinsWho/status/860249984645685250

Robopadna

Quote from: SuicideDoors on May 05, 2017, 05:59:47 PM
Quote from: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 05:57:26 PM
Quote from: SuicideDoors on May 05, 2017, 04:06:21 PM
Thanks for all the info, Robopadna. How do you think it'll end up doing?

Like I said, those guys do a pretty good job of estimating the box office results.  I think it's working against a few things.  The general perception of Prometheus was not particularly favorable (even if you individually liked it) and, because of that movie, it no longer has the hook of Scott returning to the alien franchise to build expectations.  On top of all that, I think the audience for hard R violent sci fi movies is not particularly large when compared to other movies and that will limit it.  On the pro side, its advertising is leaning heavily towards not acknowledging any connection to Prometheus (even Fassbender is very limited in his ad time) and strongly pushing the ties to Alien.

Personally I feel it's probably tracking for 35-50 OW and the week to week change will largely depend on reviews (of which we don't have any currently).  If it pulls in 35 it will be a struggle to hit 100, even with good reviews, and I imagine that would be pretty embarrassing to the studio.

I've been tweeting pro box office and they seem to think Guardians is effecting its tracking as everyone is going on about that and going quieter about Covenant. They seem optimistic it could reach 50 with decent reviews (which i know you've just echoed).


https://twitter.com/ShawnRobbinsWho/status/860249984645685250

It's a tough movie to predict because the wide variety of comps aren't really there.  As in movies with this budget that are hard R sci fi movies that aren't comic book related.  You can certainly find a few but they had vastly different approaches to marketing and results (i.e, Prometheus vs Life).

If it ends up around 50+ OW that is very solid in my opinion.  Reviews will largely dictate how well it holds after that but I have to imagine 150 is an okish spot for them, depending on foreign markets.  It's an odd position because 150 is fairly high, in my opinion, for this type of film if you ignore the budget but the studio can't really ignore that.

oduodu

If I knew what Prometheus did in China would that be an indication of what to expect from Covenant over there?

Robopadna

Quote from: oduodu on May 05, 2017, 06:36:17 PM
If I knew what Prometheus did in China would that be an indication of what to expect from Covenant over there?

I don't know.  China is one of the fastest growing markets for Hollywood so my general assumption is that it would probably do better now than Prometheus did.  However, pirating is a huge deal in China and if they don't get the same release date, or earlier, movies tend to suffer a bit there.  That being said, I can't find numbers for Prometheus in China so who knows?  ???

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