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Archive => Archive => Alien Covenant Speculation => Topic started by: Pvt. Himmel on Mar 25, 2017, 05:03:28 PM

Poll
Question: What do you think of Box office.Com's prediction??
Option 1: It will be waaay higher than that!! votes: 34
Option 2: That's just about right!! votes: 12
Option 3: This will be looower than projected numbers!! votes: 5
Title: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Pvt. Himmel on Mar 25, 2017, 05:03:28 PM
(https://www.avpgalaxy.net/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fmedia%2FC7nSpsCW0AQpDLP.jpg&hash=442a6185129cd5fb0ad7ba32a01115db15d28010)

Boxoffice.com has revealed their BO totals for Covenant.

QuoteAlien: Covenant

Five years after Ridley Scott returned to the franchise with Prometheus, the veteran filmmaker is taking another stab at the series that helped cement him as one of the most influential science fiction directors of any generation. Fans are excited by the potential of his return and another strong ensemble cast, as well as the encouraging first trailers that have been met with generally positive reactions online.

Still, Prometheus left many divisive opinions among moviegoers, and the law of diminishing returns dictates it will be tough to reignite the broader intrigue that drove the franchise in its early days since this is technically another prequel to the classic original film. Word of mouth will be very important after opening weekend.       

THE PREDICTION:

Quote                                    3-Day Wide Opening.     Domestic Total
Alien: Covenant           $35,000,000                 $90,000,000        


  http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-alien-covenant-diary-wimpy-kid-long-haul-everything-everything/     (http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-alien-covenant-diary-wimpy-kid-long-haul-everything-everything/)
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Protozoid on Mar 25, 2017, 06:04:34 PM
That's in the ballpark of what some predictions were for Prometheus, and it ended up doing significantly better. I imagine that Fox is hoping to do better than that, though.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: MajorB on Mar 25, 2017, 07:57:30 PM
We'll see. There's going to be an absolute marketing blitz around Alien Day that they're not accounting for.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: BishopShouldGo on Mar 25, 2017, 08:47:02 PM
Absolutely no one is going to see the massive success of Covenant coming. It's going to be a juggernaut. Heh.

People are craving an epic monster movie by way of Alien. I can sense it in the air. Prometheus divisive, finishing returns... that's all yada yada. It doesn't apply to this movie because it really is anew. What with the title and the genre shift from Prometheus.

$70mm opening weekend
$160mm domestic
$450mm international

$610mm total.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Russ840 on Mar 25, 2017, 08:50:26 PM
I really thing this will do big numbers. I think I'm on the same wave length and BishopShouldGo with this. £600 mil
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Stolen on Mar 25, 2017, 08:55:10 PM
$ 95M is really a very low prediction.

My prediction
$ 55M Opening Weekend
$ 146M Domestic
$ 340M International

$ 480-500M worldwide. This would be really excellent if Covenant's budget is $ 100M
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: juxtapose on Mar 26, 2017, 07:53:22 AM
i would guess around 500 mil worldwide. .which  i think is more than enought to ensure more prequels and sequals and prequals to prequals and whatever scott is planning. .


ofcause i would want it to make a billion. .but realisticly it's not child and family friendly enough. .
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: irn on Mar 26, 2017, 10:39:31 AM
They need to somehow clear up what this film is to the casual moviegoing audience. I've met people who think that this is a remake of Alien and others that think it's Alien 5.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: whiterabbit on Mar 26, 2017, 11:12:08 AM
This is an R rated movie so... f**k it. 125M opening weekend.  :laugh:

We're thirsty for that good old alien blood people and it is Alien with a capital A! Although I really think it can pull off a 90M opening if it is at least good.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Corporal Hicks on Mar 26, 2017, 02:17:39 PM
Quote from: Stolen on Mar 25, 2017, 08:55:10 PM
This would be really excellent if Covenant's budget is $ 100M

I'll be interested to know what the actual budget it. I don't expect it to be that high but it'll be interesting to know just how much confidence Fox had in this.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: shawsbaby on Mar 26, 2017, 02:22:53 PM
I think people will embrace this more fully as an actual reboot of the Alien franchise. It will earn in the neighborhood of $50 million in its opening weekend but drop off fairly quickly like Prometheus. I think domestic gross of about $100 million.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Corporal Hicks on Mar 26, 2017, 03:26:46 PM
Quality and word of mouth/internet will likely have a big factor.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Pvt. Himmel on Mar 26, 2017, 03:28:32 PM
Quote from: Corporal Hicks on Mar 26, 2017, 03:26:46 PM
Quality and word of mouth/internet will likely have a big factor.

Then you need to get the word out through your connections.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Corporal Hicks on Mar 26, 2017, 03:31:27 PM
It's nothing to do with me. I'm saying that either way, good or bad, people's reactions will play a factor in how much it takes. If it's bad, people wont be as likely to see it. The film needs to be good.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Pvt. Himmel on Mar 26, 2017, 03:42:22 PM
Quote from: Corporal Hicks on Mar 26, 2017, 03:31:27 PM
It's nothing to do with me. I'm saying that either way, good or bad, people's reactions will play a factor in how much it takes. If it's bad, people wont be as likely to see it. The film needs to be good.

I agree let's keep fingers crossed.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Stolen on Mar 26, 2017, 03:49:44 PM
I am optimistic, I think Alien Covenant will be a public and critical success

Otherwise the FOX would have already released 6 trailers, 10 spot tv, 3 featurette, James Cameron commercial ...

We have just two trailers there and the movie comes out in 45 days. This is good sign for me, the studio is confident!
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Pvt. Himmel on Mar 26, 2017, 03:52:08 PM
Quote from: Stolen on Mar 26, 2017, 03:49:44 PM
I am optimistic, I think Alien Covenant will be a public and critical success

Otherwise the FOX would have already released 6 trailers, 10 spot tv, 3 featurette, James Cameron commercial ...

We have just two trailers there and the movie comes out in 45 days. This is good sign for me, the studio is confident!

This.

And I really want to see the story continue.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Dino21AvP on Mar 26, 2017, 04:05:42 PM
Here's my prediction

$60-65 million Opening Weekend
$135-140 million Domestic
$310-320 million International
$445-460 million Worldwide
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Anthony on Mar 26, 2017, 04:56:13 PM
It will probably hit NO.1 at the BO Opening Weekend. I think it could hit the $500 Mil mark.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Hemi on Mar 26, 2017, 05:48:23 PM
The studio is confident, you would be blind not to see that. So this thing will be a monster.

And yes, if they weren't we would have seen a Pitchford type commercial by now saying it's the best thing ever... (fcking James Cameron, that commercial on Terminator Genisys....  >:( ...Good lord...) 
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: BishopShouldGo on Mar 26, 2017, 06:13:07 PM
And guys remember Alien and Aliens were in the top 10 box office of their years.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Dino21AvP on Mar 26, 2017, 06:44:51 PM
There will be a few things that will impact its box office totals, such as the release of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 two weeks earlier. Then there is Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales which opens the week after Alien: Covenant.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/?view=&release=&date=2017-05-05&showweeks=4&p=.htm

Good reviews and strong word of mouth are a must if it's going to be successful.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: irn on Mar 26, 2017, 07:37:33 PM
I'm an eccentric billionaire and have already booked $750 million worth of tickets to ensure its success.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Stolen on Mar 26, 2017, 07:53:42 PM
Great investment!

Can you give $300M for the sequel too?  ;D
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: irn on Mar 26, 2017, 10:08:27 PM
You bet I will!
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Pvt. Himmel on Apr 18, 2017, 03:12:34 PM
This will most likely make a killing at the B/O in a double whammy as it will open in North America, and China the same day.. Which means quadruple the intake in one weekend!! 8)

   http://variety.com/2017/film/asia/hollywoods-strong-run-at-china-box-office-set-to-continue-1202033066/      (http://variety.com/2017/film/asia/hollywoods-strong-run-at-china-box-office-set-to-continue-1202033066/)
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Richman678 on Apr 18, 2017, 03:31:32 PM
As far as the opening weekend goes they may have it right, but long term I believe the movie will make much more.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: CainsSon on Apr 18, 2017, 03:33:49 PM
Quote from: Stolen on Mar 25, 2017, 08:55:10 PM
$ 95M is really a very low prediction.

My prediction
$ 55M Opening Weekend
$ 146M Domestic
$ 340M International

$ 480-500M worldwide. This would be really excellent if Covenant's budget is $ 100M

I think this seems about accurate to me.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: SuicideDoors on Apr 18, 2017, 03:47:10 PM
Quote from: Dino21AvP on Mar 26, 2017, 04:05:42 PM
Here's my prediction

$60-65 million Opening Weekend
$135-140 million Domestic
$310-320 million International
$445-460 million Worldwide


Good shout! Your predictions are in line with my thoughts. I think it'll have to be received excellently to fulfil its potential, but the above are realistic projections.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: SuicideDoors on Apr 28, 2017, 07:40:39 PM
http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-transformers-last-knight/

Pro box office have changed their forecast based on social media buzz around Covenant.

I still think it's too low. I think the opening weekend will be closer to $50million (I'd almost say minimum based on buzz)
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: BishopShouldGo on Apr 28, 2017, 07:46:53 PM
No one will see it coming, like the success of Jurassic World and World War Z.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Ragonk_Force on Apr 28, 2017, 08:58:44 PM
This movie has some of the most clever marketing Ive ever seen, the hype is real. Im predicting 60 million opening weekend, higher if the reviews are good, i could see it hitting 70
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Marcus9000 on Apr 28, 2017, 09:03:54 PM
I'd imagine around $500-600 million total would be pretty good.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: echobbase79 on Apr 28, 2017, 09:28:02 PM
I'm thinking around $350-400 million total. I'd like for it to do more though.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Richman678 on Apr 28, 2017, 09:39:48 PM
Well I can say this none of the IMAX theaters in my general area ordered this for IMAX. The theaters in the bigger city close by ordered it for IMAX, but there are 2 IMAX theaters in my general area, and they both told me they wanted to keep GOTG 2 up for a 3rd week.

My point was that if it's gonna see a reduction in IMAX theatre releases then it wont make as much money.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: salomonj on Apr 28, 2017, 09:49:12 PM
Quote from: Richman678 on Apr 28, 2017, 09:39:48 PM
Well I can say this none of the IMAX theaters in my general area ordered this for IMAX. The theaters in the bigger city close by ordered it for IMAX, but there are 2 IMAX theaters in my general area, and they both told me they wanted to keep GOTG 2 up for a 3rd week.
Thats really annoying.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: cucuchu on Apr 28, 2017, 10:04:13 PM
Quote from: Richman678 on Apr 28, 2017, 09:39:48 PM
Well I can say this none of the IMAX theaters in my general area ordered this for IMAX. The theaters in the bigger city close by ordered it for IMAX, but there are 2 IMAX theaters in my general area, and they both told me they wanted to keep GOTG 2 up for a 3rd week.

My point was that if it's gonna see a reduction in IMAX theatre releases then it wont make as much money.

What area is this? Here in the Washington DC / Baltimore area, only one IMAX theatre listed Alien for IMAX 2d preticket sale but I called others and they told me IMAX tickets do not usually go on preaale until 1 to 2 weeks before opening night. Having a 2 week old GOTG 2 push out a fresh Alien Covenant (especially opening week/weekend) seems unlikely for any theatre with the desire to maximize profits...
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: oberonqa on Apr 28, 2017, 10:16:55 PM
If international reviews are good and coverage of those reviews spread out through available outlets (social media and review aggregate sites), I can see the film doing 70-75M opening weekend and 400M+ domestic total. 

If international reviews are lukewarm or bad with same review coverage, then 30-50M opening weekend and 125-150M domestic total.

I've said it before, but it's a mistake staggering the release.  If they had done a singular worldwide launch, they could have capitalised on the Alien Day footage buzz and raked in massive profits.  With a staggered launch, the domestic take is open to influence due to people watching for reviews from overseas before deciding to see it.  And lets not even bring up the piracy angle.  Giving pirates a full week to get their cam copies out is also going to impact domestic take.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: John73 on Apr 28, 2017, 10:30:30 PM
I'm guessing they want to give GOTG 2 a wide berth in the U.S., it's already opened overseas. 

I'm just happy I can see the film in Imax 2D in my area.  Usually if you want to see an imax film you're forced to see it in 3D.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: oberonqa on Apr 28, 2017, 10:37:42 PM
Quote from: John73 on Apr 28, 2017, 10:30:30 PM
I'm guessing they want to give GOTG 2 a wide berth in the U.S., it's already opened overseas. 

I'm just happy I can see the film in Imax 2D in my area.  Usually if you want to see an imax film you're forced to see it in 3D.

Yea that might be.  I wanted to see it in IMAX 2D as well... but the theater I like to goto only lists regular showings.  I could see it in IMAX 2D, but then I'd have to goto a theater that doesnt do reclining seats and assigned seating.  This theater has seats that are practically the size of love seats and full room in between the isles to allow full reclining without bumping into people in front or in back.

I'm OK passing on the IMAX experience in favor of a more comfortable viewing experience.  :)
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Richman678 on Apr 28, 2017, 10:59:04 PM
Quote from: cucuchu on Apr 28, 2017, 10:04:13 PM
Quote from: Richman678 on Apr 28, 2017, 09:39:48 PM
Well I can say this none of the IMAX theaters in my general area ordered this for IMAX. The theaters in the bigger city close by ordered it for IMAX, but there are 2 IMAX theaters in my general area, and they both told me they wanted to keep GOTG 2 up for a 3rd week.

My point was that if it's gonna see a reduction in IMAX theatre releases then it wont make as much money.

What area is this? Here in the Washington DC / Baltimore area, only one IMAX theatre listed Alien for IMAX 2d preticket sale but I called others and they told me IMAX tickets do not usually go on preaale until 1 to 2 weeks before opening night. Having a 2 week old GOTG 2 push out a fresh Alien Covenant (especially opening week/weekend) seems unlikely for any theatre with the desire to maximize profits...

This is in Central Florida. The big city is Orlando, but I live in a smaller city by the beach.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: newagescamartist on Apr 28, 2017, 11:26:42 PM
Domestic? $100 -$125 million. It won't make its budget back domestically. Worldwide is another story. $550 million.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Stanley on Apr 29, 2017, 12:02:40 AM
Much depends on if it has legs, hit songs, other movies coming out over the movie run (especially surprise hits out of nowhere), controversy in the lives of the actors, if someone like Ridley or Weaver passed away, etc.   
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: newagescamartist on Apr 29, 2017, 02:50:08 AM
Quote from: Stanley on Apr 29, 2017, 12:02:40 AM
Much depends on if it has legs, hit songs, other movies coming out over the movie run (especially surprise hits out of nowhere), controversy in the lives of the actors, if someone like Ridley or Weaver passed away, etc.

Pretty safe to say it won't have any hit songs.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: WinsteadLeung on Apr 29, 2017, 03:15:44 AM
I really envy you guys.
COVENANT may not be released in China, even if the bloody scenes are deleted.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: juxtapose on Apr 29, 2017, 05:49:38 AM
Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 29, 2017, 03:15:44 AM
I really envy you guys.
COVENANT may not be released in China, even if the bloody scenes are deleted.
well if thats the case then it will definately hurt the box office. .but why would it not be released in china. .all the other alien movies was released their?
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: SuicideDoors on Apr 29, 2017, 06:13:01 AM
http://variety.com/2017/film/asia/hollywoods-strong-run-at-china-box-office-set-to-continue-1202033066/#respond
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: juxtapose on Apr 29, 2017, 06:34:12 AM
ok i almost panicked. .phew!
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Necronomicon II on Apr 29, 2017, 08:32:33 AM
Is China pretty strict on things like gore?
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: SuicideDoors on Apr 29, 2017, 09:37:02 AM
Ok I redact my original link!

https://twitter.com/ChinaBoxOffice/status/858203390337310720

Seems Cov is having problems because it's too f**ked up. Shame cause it'll be the loss of a huge market but you can't compromise the filmmaker's vision by cutting it to pieces. I think they had to cut FOURTEEN minutes of Logan over there to get a release.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: juxtapose on Apr 29, 2017, 10:08:33 AM
officially panicking again. .it will be a huge loss for the movie. .but hopefully they can cut the worst and still get it released over in the middle kingdom. .it will really make a massive impact on box office. Thats a certainty. .so lets hope it does really well everywhere else. .
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Jadoremusic on Apr 29, 2017, 11:06:36 AM
Quote from: Richman678 on Apr 28, 2017, 09:39:48 PM
Well I can say this none of the IMAX theaters in my general area ordered this for IMAX. The theaters in the bigger city close by ordered it for IMAX, but there are 2 IMAX theaters in my general area, and they both told me they wanted to keep GOTG 2 up for a 3rd week.

My point was that if it's gonna see a reduction in IMAX theatre releases then it wont make as much money.

I emailed my cinemas in Glasgow regarding the IMAX release and up to a week ago, the reply was that none were going to show it in IMAX.
Yesterday all the cinemas were advertising it as available in IMAX..
So now I have a ticket for the preview on the 11 Mayfrom the Alien Day and for the IMAX on the 12th =)
Give it time
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: WinsteadLeung on Apr 29, 2017, 12:52:20 PM
Quote from: juxtapose on Apr 29, 2017, 05:49:38 AM
Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 29, 2017, 03:15:44 AM
I really envy you guys.
COVENANT may not be released in China, even if the bloody scenes are deleted.
well if thats the case then it will definately hurt the box office. .but why would it not be released in china. .all the other alien movies was released their?
Only Prometheus,and they deleted hammerpede scene and surgery scene as well as trilobite scene. Alien1-4 are only shown on some film festivals
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: juxtapose on Apr 29, 2017, 01:51:46 PM
. .wow that really sucks. .i mean those are like my favorite scenes from prometheus. .and once it gets released on dvd/bluray. .is it still cut in china or do you have to order it of the internet?
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Anthony on Apr 29, 2017, 02:42:52 PM
Quote from: SuicideDoors on Apr 29, 2017, 09:37:02 AM
Ok I redact my original link!

https://twitter.com/ChinaBoxOffice/status/858203390337310720


I just love how the translation calls Ridley Scott "RAY FATHER" and Noomi Rapace "LOMI LAPES".
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: cucuchu on Apr 29, 2017, 03:01:47 PM
Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 29, 2017, 12:52:20 PM
Quote from: juxtapose on Apr 29, 2017, 05:49:38 AM
Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 29, 2017, 03:15:44 AM
I really envy you guys.
COVENANT may not be released in China, even if the bloody scenes are deleted.
well if thats the case then it will definately hurt the box office. .but why would it not be released in china. .all the other alien movies was released their?
Only Prometheus,and they deleted hammerpede scene and surgery scene as well as trilobite scene. Alien1-4 are only shown on some film festivals


Any idea on how popular the Alien series is in China? Wondering how much of an impact it will have all in all. Unless I am mistaken, Prometheus did not,appear in China cinemas and still managed to pull in 402 million at the box office, which is quite decent when comparing it to the budget (including marketing)... Not to mention the blu ray and digital sales.

Also, something IMPORTANT to keep in mind is that Prometheus was not an Alien film by name so that probably did not help it. Alien: Covenant is an obvious Alien film with a solid marketting campaign and will be releasing in a time when big budget R-rated films do quite well. I predict a worldwide Box Office success at $600 million easily. I see a lot of people hyped for the movie (anedoctal, yes, but still...). Commercially it will be a large success and critically the general audience will enjoy it and find it to be intense and fun to watch, while probably pretty divided amongst more hardcore alien fans.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: juxtapose on Apr 29, 2017, 03:43:48 PM
...i was looking at an article on google earlier today about ten movies not being released in china....i could hardly believe that Deadpool was one of them..i mean considering it was an R rated movie and how much it ended up making, and at the same time was it really that hardcore?..still my favorite super hero movie must be Watchmen and that was way more extreme than Deadpool in terms of violence, sex and nudity, haven't checked if that one was released in china...but i am guessing ...NOT. ..with Dr Manhattan flashing his penis all over the show...so i guess that their is still some hope for covenant's box office...and we don't know for certain if covenant wont be released in china yet...so keeping my fingers crossed.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Hellspawn28 on Apr 29, 2017, 08:23:47 PM
We have Pirates of the Caribbean 5 and Diary of a Wimpy Kid 3 coming out. I feel like AC may not reach #1 at the box office on the first week. Fox made the same mistake with Prometheus by releasing it on the same week with another shitty kids movie.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: newagescamartist on Apr 29, 2017, 09:44:07 PM
Quote from: Hellspawn28 on Apr 29, 2017, 08:23:47 PM
We have Pirates of the Caribbean 5 and Diary of a Wimpy Kid 3 coming out. I feel like AC may not reach #1 at the box office on the first week. Fox made the same mistake with Prometheus by releasing it on the same week with another shitty kids movie.

Covenant really needs a big opening considering its budget. Anything less than a $50 million opening is going to indicate domestic flop. And now with the news that China won't be showing it, it needs ever advantage it can get.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Vermillion on Apr 30, 2017, 12:23:57 AM
$52.8 million Domestic opening
$124 million total Domestic run
$160 International run.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: cucuchu on Apr 30, 2017, 12:56:15 AM
Quote from: Hellspawn28 on Apr 29, 2017, 08:23:47 PM
We have Pirates of the Caribbean 5 and Diary of a Wimpy Kid 3 coming out. I feel like AC may not reach #1 at the box office on the first week. Fox made the same mistake with Prometheus by releasing it on the same week with another shitty kids movie.

Pirates is out one week after Alien: Covenant in the states. So that leaves diary of a wimpy kid and Guardians of the Galaxy 2 as its big contenders. King Arthur is out around then too, I think a week earlier, but I do not get the impression that many are interested in that. So really, I think Alien has plenty of room to do well because Diary of a wimpy kid audience is probably not interested in A:C and vice versa. Guardians will have been out a couple of weeks and while it and alien might share a portion of their audience, 2 weeks is enough time to allow people to see both realistically. Pirates of the Caribbean does seem to be reviewing well but I also think the audiences are different enough, and Alien is a week earlier.

So to keep it simple: Alien: Covenant will be the only mainstream hard R movie out during a period now where people seem more open to that. Also it carries the alien name, unlike Prometheus, and the marketting campaign has been top notch. I feel certain it will out perform prometheus at the least and possibly double Prometheus' box office if there is positive word of mouth and people are all about it on social media. Very optimistic myself!
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: WinsteadLeung on Apr 30, 2017, 12:57:34 AM
Quote from: cucuchu on Apr 29, 2017, 03:01:47 PM
Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 29, 2017, 12:52:20 PM
Quote from: juxtapose on Apr 29, 2017, 05:49:38 AM
Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 29, 2017, 03:15:44 AM
I really envy you guys.
COVENANT may not be released in China, even if the bloody scenes are deleted.
well if thats the case then it will definately hurt the box office. .but why would it not be released in china. .all the other alien movies was released their?
Only Prometheus,and they deleted hammerpede scene and surgery scene as well as trilobite scene. Alien1-4 are only shown on some film festivals
PROMETHEUS was released in China in September with THE AMAZING SPIDERMAN and THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, and, people love superheros. :)

China has countless people like ALIEN series, so to speak.


Any idea on how popular the Alien series is in China? Wondering how much of an impact it will have all in all. Unless I am mistaken, Prometheus did not,appear in China cinemas and still managed to pull in 402 million at the box office, which is quite decent when comparing it to the budget (including marketing)... Not to mention the blu ray and digital sales.

Also, something IMPORTANT to keep in mind is that Prometheus was not an Alien film by name so that probably did not help it. Alien: Covenant is an obvious Alien film with a solid marketting campaign and will be releasing in a time when big budget R-rated films do quite well. I predict a worldwide Box Office success at $600 million easily. I see a lot of people hyped for the movie (anedoctal, yes, but still...). Commercially it will be a large success and critically the general audience will enjoy it and find it to be intense and fun to watch, while probably pretty divided amongst more hardcore alien fans.
PROMETHEUS was released in China in September with THE AMAZING SPIDERMAN and THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, and, people love superheros. :)

China has countless people like ALIEN series, so to speak.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Anthony on Apr 30, 2017, 12:59:29 AM
Does anyone even care about the new Diary Of A Wimpy Kid film? I was the biggest fan of that series and the new film just came out of nowhere.

Heck, I'm surprised they didn't move it to Covenant's precious August date.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: cucuchu on Apr 30, 2017, 01:01:01 AM
Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 30, 2017, 12:57:34 AM
Quote from: cucuchu on Apr 29, 2017, 03:01:47 PM
Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 29, 2017, 12:52:20 PM
Quote from: juxtapose on Apr 29, 2017, 05:49:38 AM
Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 29, 2017, 03:15:44 AM
I really envy you guys.
COVENANT may not be released in China, even if the bloody scenes are deleted.
well if thats the case then it will definately hurt the box office. .but why would it not be released in china. .all the other alien movies was released their?
Only Prometheus,and they deleted hammerpede scene and surgery scene as well as trilobite scene. Alien1-4 are only shown on some film festivals
PROMETHEUS was released in China in September with THE AMAZING SPIDERMAN and THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, and, people love superheros. :)

China has countless people like ALIEN series, so to speak.


Any idea on how popular the Alien series is in China? Wondering how much of an impact it will have all in all. Unless I am mistaken, Prometheus did not,appear in China cinemas and still managed to pull in 402 million at the box office, which is quite decent when comparing it to the budget (including marketing)... Not to mention the blu ray and digital sales.

Also, something IMPORTANT to keep in mind is that Prometheus was not an Alien film by name so that probably did not help it. Alien: Covenant is an obvious Alien film with a solid marketting campaign and will be releasing in a time when big budget R-rated films do quite well. I predict a worldwide Box Office success at $600 million easily. I see a lot of people hyped for the movie (anedoctal, yes, but still...). Commercially it will be a large success and critically the general audience will enjoy it and find it to be intense and fun to watch, while probably pretty divided amongst more hardcore alien fans.
PROMETHEUS was released in China in September with THE AMAZING SPIDERMAN and THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, and, people love superheros. :)

China has countless people like ALIEN series, so to speak.

Thanks for the information friend. It was released in Cinema?  Well, hope the same for Alien: Covenant...box office numbers aside, alien fans should get to enjoy the films as intended no matter their location. Hoping you get to see it soon!
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: WinsteadLeung on Apr 30, 2017, 01:16:28 AM
Quote from: cucuchu on Apr 30, 2017, 01:01:01 AM
Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 30, 2017, 12:57:34 AM
Quote from: cucuchu on Apr 29, 2017, 03:01:47 PM
Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 29, 2017, 12:52:20 PM
Quote from: juxtapose on Apr 29, 2017, 05:49:38 AM
Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 29, 2017, 03:15:44 AM
I really envy you guys.
COVENANT may not be released in China, even if the bloody scenes are deleted.
well if thats the case then it will definately hurt the box office. .but why would it not be released in china. .all the other alien movies was released their?
Only Prometheus,and they deleted hammerpede scene and surgery scene as well as trilobite scene. Alien1-4 are only shown on some film festivals
PROMETHEUS was released in China in September with THE AMAZING SPIDERMAN and THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, and, people love superheros. :)

China has countless people like ALIEN series, so to speak.


Any idea on how popular the Alien series is in China? Wondering how much of an impact it will have all in all. Unless I am mistaken, Prometheus did not,appear in China cinemas and still managed to pull in 402 million at the box office, which is quite decent when comparing it to the budget (including marketing)... Not to mention the blu ray and digital sales.

Also, something IMPORTANT to keep in mind is that Prometheus was not an Alien film by name so that probably did not help it. Alien: Covenant is an obvious Alien film with a solid marketting campaign and will be releasing in a time when big budget R-rated films do quite well. I predict a worldwide Box Office success at $600 million easily. I see a lot of people hyped for the movie (anedoctal, yes, but still...). Commercially it will be a large success and critically the general audience will enjoy it and find it to be intense and fun to watch, while probably pretty divided amongst more hardcore alien fans.
PROMETHEUS was released in China in September with THE AMAZING SPIDERMAN and THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, and, people love superheros. :)

China has countless people like ALIEN series, so to speak.

Thanks for the information friend. It was released in Cinema?  Well, hope the same for Alien: Covenant...box office numbers aside, alien fans should get to enjoy the films as intended no matter their location. Hoping you get to see it soon!
Thanks for your wish, even if I can't see it in cinema then I'll buy a Blu-ray.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Whos_Nick on May 01, 2017, 06:54:00 AM
Covenant is opening in a pretty good window and I think the reviews/word of mouth will be really important. If it's a hit critically, I'll say it could crack 500 million worldwide. Fox has seen good success recently with R-Rated properties so hopefully that also helps out.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: SuicideDoors on May 04, 2017, 08:01:26 PM
https://twitter.com/boxoffice/status/860197687706218496

Hopefully these guys are just full of shit and they haven't got a clue but they reckon Covenant is only tracking mid 30s/high 30s for opening weekend. I really think it has to open over $50million!
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Richman678 on May 04, 2017, 08:08:42 PM
I dont think Pirates is gonna be a huge hit. Johnny Depp has been striking out a lot lately. Plus every single one of them sucked after the first one....Plus Johhny Depp himself has a massive PR problem as well. I think Pirates is gonna be a dud....This does not mean I think Alien is gonna succeed just because of that.

As for Diary of Wimpy Kid. Well I am pretty sure people going to see that are not going to Alien Covenant at all.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Ragonk_Force on May 04, 2017, 08:16:53 PM
If baywatch makes more money than covenant, Im going to kill myself
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: SuicideDoors on May 04, 2017, 08:21:05 PM
Quote from: Ragonk_Force on May 04, 2017, 08:16:53 PM
If baywatch makes more money than covenant, Im going to kill myself

Alien vs Predator made $38million opening weekend back in the day. I don't care about increased piracy and staggered release windows, surely it must make more than that piece of shit?!
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: cucuchu on May 04, 2017, 08:26:06 PM
Quote from: Ragonk_Force on May 04, 2017, 08:16:53 PM
If baywatch makes more money than covenant, Im going to kill myself

Its got THE ROCK in it, a shirtless Dwayne Johnson in a bathing suit no less. Every housewife in America will see it 30 times at the cinema. Alien: Covenant never stood a chance.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Protozoid on May 04, 2017, 08:29:29 PM
Quote from: SuicideDoors on May 04, 2017, 08:01:26 PM
https://twitter.com/boxoffice/status/860197687706218496

Hopefully these guys are just full of shit and they haven't got a clue but they reckon Covenant is only tracking mid 30s/high 30s for opening weekend. I really think it has to open over $50million!
The opening weekend for Prometheus was expected to be in that same range, and iirc, it ended up making around $55M.

What numbers does this need to be considered a success? Better than Prometheus, I assume?
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: BishopShouldGo on May 04, 2017, 08:32:31 PM
It will climb to $70mm.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: whiterabbit on May 04, 2017, 08:36:01 PM
The thing about China... remember people that this movie is being made for us and not them. The people who love hard R monster/sci-fi movies. It's the price that must be paid for such movies to be made. Otherwise everything would be micheal bay transformers garbage. I use the term garbage wholeheartedly because they are flat out bad films. Still I believe with history on our side that capital A in alien will pull us through.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: SuicideDoors on May 04, 2017, 08:44:05 PM
Quote from: Protozoid on May 04, 2017, 08:29:29 PM
Quote from: SuicideDoors on May 04, 2017, 08:01:26 PM
https://twitter.com/boxoffice/status/860197687706218496

Hopefully these guys are just full of shit and they haven't got a clue but they reckon Covenant is only tracking mid 30s/high 30s for opening weekend. I really think it has to open over $50million!
The opening weekend for Prometheus was expected to be in that same range, and iirc, it ended up making around $55M.

What numbers does this need to be considered a success? Better than Prometheus, I assume?

I thought Prom was around 55 it was actually 51 though: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=prometheus.htm

I'd say it needs to match Prometheus figures bare minimum to have a sequel greenlit. Mid 30's for opening is precarious, because historically Alien films have never had legs since the first two. My instincts tell me Covenant will open north of $40mill but the tracking has me concerned (though like you rightly pointed out industry tracking isn't always correct)
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: fiveways on May 04, 2017, 10:31:46 PM
I said prometheus numbers in the previous thread.  I actually think it will do less.  I seriously know very few people with any interest in this movie.

Hell, no one i know bother to go to the theatre anymore.  They will just wait a couple weeks and watch it with Korean subtitles.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: WinsteadLeung on May 05, 2017, 09:46:50 AM
Quote from: cucuchu on Apr 30, 2017, 01:01:01 AM
Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 30, 2017, 12:57:34 AM
Quote from: cucuchu on Apr 29, 2017, 03:01:47 PM
Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 29, 2017, 12:52:20 PM
Quote from: juxtapose on Apr 29, 2017, 05:49:38 AM
Quote from: WinsteadLeung on Apr 29, 2017, 03:15:44 AM
I really envy you guys.
COVENANT may not be released in China, even if the bloody scenes are deleted.
well if thats the case then it will definately hurt the box office. .but why would it not be released in china. .all the other alien movies was released their?
Only Prometheus,and they deleted hammerpede scene and surgery scene as well as trilobite scene. Alien1-4 are only shown on some film festivals
PROMETHEUS was released in China in September with THE AMAZING SPIDERMAN and THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, and, people love superheros. :)

China has countless people like ALIEN series, so to speak.


Any idea on how popular the Alien series is in China? Wondering how much of an impact it will have all in all. Unless I am mistaken, Prometheus did not,appear in China cinemas and still managed to pull in 402 million at the box office, which is quite decent when comparing it to the budget (including marketing)... Not to mention the blu ray and digital sales.

Also, something IMPORTANT to keep in mind is that Prometheus was not an Alien film by name so that probably did not help it. Alien: Covenant is an obvious Alien film with a solid marketting campaign and will be releasing in a time when big budget R-rated films do quite well. I predict a worldwide Box Office success at $600 million easily. I see a lot of people hyped for the movie (anedoctal, yes, but still...). Commercially it will be a large success and critically the general audience will enjoy it and find it to be intense and fun to watch, while probably pretty divided amongst more hardcore alien fans.
PROMETHEUS was released in China in September with THE AMAZING SPIDERMAN and THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, and, people love superheros. :)

China has countless people like ALIEN series, so to speak.

Thanks for the information friend. It was released in Cinema?  Well, hope the same for Alien: Covenant...box office numbers aside, alien fans should get to enjoy the films as intended no matter their location. Hoping you get to see it soon!
COVENANT will be released in CHINA. ;D ;D ;D (but FOX haven't announce the release date.) I'm so excited !!!
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: juxtapose on May 05, 2017, 09:54:36 AM
thats awesome news. . .i am less worried about how well it's going to do now!. .lots of movies have been saved due to the fact that they did well in china. .and some that was'nt released in the middle kingdom suffered as a result. .
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 12:20:41 PM
Quote from: SuicideDoors on May 04, 2017, 08:01:26 PM
https://twitter.com/boxoffice/status/860197687706218496

Hopefully these guys are just full of shit and they haven't got a clue but they reckon Covenant is only tracking mid 30s/high 30s for opening weekend. I really think it has to open over $50million!

They are usually pretty accurate and have their own models (which aren't all that complicated) that take into account release window, genre, franchise, competition and some polling information.  They may even have access to some meta data raked from the internet.  Overall they usually produce a pretty accurate estimate, but occasionally they under/over shoot.

Someone else asked how much a movie has to make to 'break even'.  A general rule of thumb is that the studio will take, approximately, 50% of the US market (front heavy) and approximately 33% of the foreign market (varying wildly by country with China being exceptionally low ~ 25%).

I do not know what the estimated budget is here but I have heard rumors of it being around 150 million dollars.  That doesn't include marketing/distribution so that would add on another 80+ (Matt Damon's Great Wall movie had an 80 million dollar marketing campaign and Covenant seems more visible).

Essentially the number to hit is roughly 200-250 million. 

.5*(NA B.O.) + .25(Chinas B.O.) + .4 (Non China foreign B.O.) = studio's take.

Let's assume it mimics Prometheus (which I think is generous)...  the studio's take on Prometheus was roughly: 63 million domestic and 111 million WW for a total of 174 million.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Kane's other son on May 05, 2017, 12:28:31 PM
The movie's currently tracking for a mid-30's opening weekend, but we're still 2 weeks away from opening day.
If the reviews are decent and taking into account the last minute marketing push, it should do over $40 million. If the movie's well received and the second weekend drop is not as steep as Prometheus, it should end its run with Mad Max numbers ($45 million opening, around $150 million total US gross).
The big bucks will come from international markets, in any case.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: fiveways on May 05, 2017, 01:14:18 PM
Quote from: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 12:20:41 PM
Quote from: SuicideDoors on May 04, 2017, 08:01:26 PM
https://twitter.com/boxoffice/status/860197687706218496

Hopefully these guys are just full of shit and they haven't got a clue but they reckon Covenant is only tracking mid 30s/high 30s for opening weekend. I really think it has to open over $50million!

They are usually pretty accurate and have their own models (which aren't all that complicated) that take into account release window, genre, franchise, competition and some polling information.  They may even have access to some meta data raked from the internet.  Overall they usually produce a pretty accurate estimate, but occasionally they under/over shoot.

Someone else asked how much a movie has to make to 'break even'.  A general rule of thumb is that the studio will take, approximately, 50% of the US market (front heavy) and approximately 33% of the foreign market (varying wildly by country with China being exceptionally low ~ 25%).

I do not know what the estimated budget is here but I have heard rumors of it being around 150 million dollars.  That doesn't include marketing/distribution so that would add on another 80+ (Matt Damon's Great Wall movie had an 80 million dollar marketing campaign and Covenant seems more visible).

Essentially the number to hit is roughly 200-250 million. 

.5*(NA B.O.) + .25(Chinas B.O.) + .4 (Non China foreign B.O.) = studio's take.

Let's assume it mimics Prometheus (which I think is generous)...  the studio's take on Prometheus was roughly: 63 million domestic and 111 million WW for a total of 174 million.

250m seems the magic number in my mind.  It'll make that.  Now that it is confirmed for a Chinese release, it's do Prometheus type money.  It's not going to be another deadpool as that has massive crossover market people super interested in it.  This is a straight up sci-fi/horror flick with some cross over potential.

It will lose to Baywatch like Fury Road lost to Pitch Perfect 2 (in the end Fury Road made near 100m more than Pitch Perfect 2 as few people outside of the USA give a f**k about that kinda shit).  The final number breakdown will also be the same.  1/3rd from the Domestic market, and 2/3rds international.  $375-$410m total.  That is the comfort zone for these kinda movies.  Fox will be happy and there will be a sequel ok instantly.  Hopefully they can start filming it quickly and get it out by 2019. 
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 01:25:50 PM
Quote from: fiveways on May 05, 2017, 01:14:18 PM
Quote from: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 12:20:41 PM
Quote from: SuicideDoors on May 04, 2017, 08:01:26 PM
https://twitter.com/boxoffice/status/860197687706218496

Hopefully these guys are just full of shit and they haven't got a clue but they reckon Covenant is only tracking mid 30s/high 30s for opening weekend. I really think it has to open over $50million!

They are usually pretty accurate and have their own models (which aren't all that complicated) that take into account release window, genre, franchise, competition and some polling information.  They may even have access to some meta data raked from the internet.  Overall they usually produce a pretty accurate estimate, but occasionally they under/over shoot.

Someone else asked how much a movie has to make to 'break even'.  A general rule of thumb is that the studio will take, approximately, 50% of the US market (front heavy) and approximately 33% of the foreign market (varying wildly by country with China being exceptionally low ~ 25%).

I do not know what the estimated budget is here but I have heard rumors of it being around 150 million dollars.  That doesn't include marketing/distribution so that would add on another 80+ (Matt Damon's Great Wall movie had an 80 million dollar marketing campaign and Covenant seems more visible).

Essentially the number to hit is roughly 200-250 million. 

.5*(NA B.O.) + .25(Chinas B.O.) + .4 (Non China foreign B.O.) = studio's take.

Let's assume it mimics Prometheus (which I think is generous)...  the studio's take on Prometheus was roughly: 63 million domestic and 111 million WW for a total of 174 million.

250m seems the magic number in my mind.  It'll make that.  Now that it is confirmed for a Chinese release, it's do Prometheus type money.  It's not going to be another deadpool as that has massive crossover market people super interested in it.  This is a straight up sci-fi/horror flick with some cross over potential.

It will lose to Baywatch like Fury Road lost to Pitch Perfect 2 (in the end Fury Road made near 100m more than Pitch Perfect 2 as few people outside of the USA give a f**k about that kinda shit).  The final number breakdown will also be the same.  1/3rd from the Domestic market, and 2/3rds international.  $375-$410m total.  That is the comfort zone for these kinda movies.  Fox will be happy and there will be a sequel ok instantly.  Hopefully they can start filming it quickly and get it out by 2019.

When I say 200-250, that is the number the studio has to get from THEIR CUT of the B.O.  Which means the B.O. has to be considerably higher.

If it does 150 dom and 300 WW then the studio will pocket roughly 75+120 = about 200 million, at best.  If China is the majority of that then the studio will get less.

My guess is they need about 550 total (including domestic and foreign) to break even/start to feel good.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: fiveways on May 05, 2017, 01:37:41 PM
Quote from: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 01:25:50 PM
Quote from: fiveways on May 05, 2017, 01:14:18 PM
Quote from: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 12:20:41 PM
Quote from: SuicideDoors on May 04, 2017, 08:01:26 PM
https://twitter.com/boxoffice/status/860197687706218496

Hopefully these guys are just full of shit and they haven't got a clue but they reckon Covenant is only tracking mid 30s/high 30s for opening weekend. I really think it has to open over $50million!

They are usually pretty accurate and have their own models (which aren't all that complicated) that take into account release window, genre, franchise, competition and some polling information.  They may even have access to some meta data raked from the internet.  Overall they usually produce a pretty accurate estimate, but occasionally they under/over shoot.

Someone else asked how much a movie has to make to 'break even'.  A general rule of thumb is that the studio will take, approximately, 50% of the US market (front heavy) and approximately 33% of the foreign market (varying wildly by country with China being exceptionally low ~ 25%).

I do not know what the estimated budget is here but I have heard rumors of it being around 150 million dollars.  That doesn't include marketing/distribution so that would add on another 80+ (Matt Damon's Great Wall movie had an 80 million dollar marketing campaign and Covenant seems more visible).

Essentially the number to hit is roughly 200-250 million. 

.5*(NA B.O.) + .25(Chinas B.O.) + .4 (Non China foreign B.O.) = studio's take.

Let's assume it mimics Prometheus (which I think is generous)...  the studio's take on Prometheus was roughly: 63 million domestic and 111 million WW for a total of 174 million.

250m seems the magic number in my mind.  It'll make that.  Now that it is confirmed for a Chinese release, it's do Prometheus type money.  It's not going to be another deadpool as that has massive crossover market people super interested in it.  This is a straight up sci-fi/horror flick with some cross over potential.

It will lose to Baywatch like Fury Road lost to Pitch Perfect 2 (in the end Fury Road made near 100m more than Pitch Perfect 2 as few people outside of the USA give a f**k about that kinda shit).  The final number breakdown will also be the same.  1/3rd from the Domestic market, and 2/3rds international.  $375-$410m total.  That is the comfort zone for these kinda movies.  Fox will be happy and there will be a sequel ok instantly.  Hopefully they can start filming it quickly and get it out by 2019.

When I say 200-250, that is the number the studio has to get from THEIR CUT of the B.O.  Which means the B.O. has to be considerably higher.

If it does 150 dom and 300 WW then the studio will pocket roughly 75+120 = about 200 million, at best.  If China is the majority of that then the studio will get less.

My guess is they need about 550 total (including domestic and foreign) to break even/start to feel good.

Does this factor in tax breaks and all that?  We have the budget upfront but I always thought that was before shooting incentives, tax breaks, product/company placement and all that shit.  We know they fronted 150m on the film, but how much of that is recoverable even before the movie hits?

This is the side I've never found a ton of information on. The "what comes first" part of it.  I get it on indie pictures but for something with this sort of money being tossed at it, i'd be interested in know the full processes.  Hollywood math fascinates me.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 02:13:21 PM
Quote from: fiveways on May 05, 2017, 01:37:41 PM
Quote from: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 01:25:50 PM
Quote from: fiveways on May 05, 2017, 01:14:18 PM
Quote from: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 12:20:41 PM
Quote from: SuicideDoors on May 04, 2017, 08:01:26 PM
https://twitter.com/boxoffice/status/860197687706218496

Hopefully these guys are just full of shit and they haven't got a clue but they reckon Covenant is only tracking mid 30s/high 30s for opening weekend. I really think it has to open over $50million!

They are usually pretty accurate and have their own models (which aren't all that complicated) that take into account release window, genre, franchise, competition and some polling information.  They may even have access to some meta data raked from the internet.  Overall they usually produce a pretty accurate estimate, but occasionally they under/over shoot.

Someone else asked how much a movie has to make to 'break even'.  A general rule of thumb is that the studio will take, approximately, 50% of the US market (front heavy) and approximately 33% of the foreign market (varying wildly by country with China being exceptionally low ~ 25%).

I do not know what the estimated budget is here but I have heard rumors of it being around 150 million dollars.  That doesn't include marketing/distribution so that would add on another 80+ (Matt Damon's Great Wall movie had an 80 million dollar marketing campaign and Covenant seems more visible).

Essentially the number to hit is roughly 200-250 million. 

.5*(NA B.O.) + .25(Chinas B.O.) + .4 (Non China foreign B.O.) = studio's take.

Let's assume it mimics Prometheus (which I think is generous)...  the studio's take on Prometheus was roughly: 63 million domestic and 111 million WW for a total of 174 million.

250m seems the magic number in my mind.  It'll make that.  Now that it is confirmed for a Chinese release, it's do Prometheus type money.  It's not going to be another deadpool as that has massive crossover market people super interested in it.  This is a straight up sci-fi/horror flick with some cross over potential.

It will lose to Baywatch like Fury Road lost to Pitch Perfect 2 (in the end Fury Road made near 100m more than Pitch Perfect 2 as few people outside of the USA give a f**k about that kinda shit).  The final number breakdown will also be the same.  1/3rd from the Domestic market, and 2/3rds international.  $375-$410m total.  That is the comfort zone for these kinda movies.  Fox will be happy and there will be a sequel ok instantly.  Hopefully they can start filming it quickly and get it out by 2019.

When I say 200-250, that is the number the studio has to get from THEIR CUT of the B.O.  Which means the B.O. has to be considerably higher.

If it does 150 dom and 300 WW then the studio will pocket roughly 75+120 = about 200 million, at best.  If China is the majority of that then the studio will get less.

My guess is they need about 550 total (including domestic and foreign) to break even/start to feel good.

Does this factor in tax breaks and all that?  We have the budget upfront but I always thought that was before shooting incentives, tax breaks, product/company placement and all that shit.  We know they fronted 150m on the film, but how much of that is recoverable even before the movie hits?

This is the side I've never found a ton of information on. The "what comes first" part of it.  I get it on indie pictures but for something with this sort of money being tossed at it, i'd be interested in know the full processes.  Hollywood math fascinates me.

No, I didn't include them and you are right, there are tax rebates, incentives and marketing deals (AMD and Audi? in this case) that subsidize the film to some degree.

To minimize their risk even further they can sell the distribution rights to any number of markets to recover large percentages back before the film is finished.  Then they have the dvd/blu ray/redbox and on demand sales (and other methods) for the additional revenue.  Those can be substantial.

Even with all of that, they really want the revenue in the B.O. so they can brag.  Perception means a lot and it's hard to, after the fact, try to convey the message that the movie was disappointing in the B.O. but made up for it with these obscure revenue streams that often times have little to do with audience demand to see it.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: SuicideDoors on May 05, 2017, 04:06:21 PM
Thanks for all the info, Robopadna. How do you think it'll end up doing?
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 05:57:26 PM
Quote from: SuicideDoors on May 05, 2017, 04:06:21 PM
Thanks for all the info, Robopadna. How do you think it'll end up doing?

Like I said, those guys do a pretty good job of estimating the box office results.  I think it's working against a few things.  The general perception of Prometheus was not particularly favorable (even if you individually liked it) and, because of that movie, it no longer has the hook of Scott returning to the alien franchise to build expectations.  On top of all that, I think the audience for hard R violent sci fi movies is not particularly large when compared to other movies and that will limit it.  On the pro side, its advertising is leaning heavily towards not acknowledging any connection to Prometheus (even Fassbender is very limited in his ad time) and strongly pushing the ties to Alien.

Personally I feel it's probably tracking for 35-50 OW and the week to week change will largely depend on reviews (of which we don't have any currently).  If it pulls in 35 it will be a struggle to hit 100, even with good reviews, and I imagine that would be pretty embarrassing to the studio.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: SuicideDoors on May 05, 2017, 05:59:47 PM
Quote from: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 05:57:26 PM
Quote from: SuicideDoors on May 05, 2017, 04:06:21 PM
Thanks for all the info, Robopadna. How do you think it'll end up doing?

Like I said, those guys do a pretty good job of estimating the box office results.  I think it's working against a few things.  The general perception of Prometheus was not particularly favorable (even if you individually liked it) and, because of that movie, it no longer has the hook of Scott returning to the alien franchise to build expectations.  On top of all that, I think the audience for hard R violent sci fi movies is not particularly large when compared to other movies and that will limit it.  On the pro side, its advertising is leaning heavily towards not acknowledging any connection to Prometheus (even Fassbender is very limited in his ad time) and strongly pushing the ties to Alien.

Personally I feel it's probably tracking for 35-50 OW and the week to week change will largely depend on reviews (of which we don't have any currently).  If it pulls in 35 it will be a struggle to hit 100, even with good reviews, and I imagine that would be pretty embarrassing to the studio.

I've been tweeting pro box office and they seem to think Guardians is effecting its tracking as everyone is going on about that and going quieter about Covenant. They seem optimistic it could reach 50 with decent reviews (which i know you've just echoed).


https://twitter.com/ShawnRobbinsWho/status/860249984645685250
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 06:29:35 PM
Quote from: SuicideDoors on May 05, 2017, 05:59:47 PM
Quote from: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 05:57:26 PM
Quote from: SuicideDoors on May 05, 2017, 04:06:21 PM
Thanks for all the info, Robopadna. How do you think it'll end up doing?

Like I said, those guys do a pretty good job of estimating the box office results.  I think it's working against a few things.  The general perception of Prometheus was not particularly favorable (even if you individually liked it) and, because of that movie, it no longer has the hook of Scott returning to the alien franchise to build expectations.  On top of all that, I think the audience for hard R violent sci fi movies is not particularly large when compared to other movies and that will limit it.  On the pro side, its advertising is leaning heavily towards not acknowledging any connection to Prometheus (even Fassbender is very limited in his ad time) and strongly pushing the ties to Alien.

Personally I feel it's probably tracking for 35-50 OW and the week to week change will largely depend on reviews (of which we don't have any currently).  If it pulls in 35 it will be a struggle to hit 100, even with good reviews, and I imagine that would be pretty embarrassing to the studio.

I've been tweeting pro box office and they seem to think Guardians is effecting its tracking as everyone is going on about that and going quieter about Covenant. They seem optimistic it could reach 50 with decent reviews (which i know you've just echoed).


https://twitter.com/ShawnRobbinsWho/status/860249984645685250

It's a tough movie to predict because the wide variety of comps aren't really there.  As in movies with this budget that are hard R sci fi movies that aren't comic book related.  You can certainly find a few but they had vastly different approaches to marketing and results (i.e, Prometheus vs Life).

If it ends up around 50+ OW that is very solid in my opinion.  Reviews will largely dictate how well it holds after that but I have to imagine 150 is an okish spot for them, depending on foreign markets.  It's an odd position because 150 is fairly high, in my opinion, for this type of film if you ignore the budget but the studio can't really ignore that.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: oduodu on May 05, 2017, 06:36:17 PM
If I knew what Prometheus did in China would that be an indication of what to expect from Covenant over there?
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 07:14:41 PM
Quote from: oduodu on May 05, 2017, 06:36:17 PM
If I knew what Prometheus did in China would that be an indication of what to expect from Covenant over there?

I don't know.  China is one of the fastest growing markets for Hollywood so my general assumption is that it would probably do better now than Prometheus did.  However, pirating is a huge deal in China and if they don't get the same release date, or earlier, movies tend to suffer a bit there.  That being said, I can't find numbers for Prometheus in China so who knows?  ???
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: oduodu on May 05, 2017, 07:17:14 PM
Can't find any for China either.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Salt The Fries on May 05, 2017, 07:21:09 PM
Quote from: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 07:14:41 PM
Quote from: oduodu on May 05, 2017, 06:36:17 PM
If I knew what Prometheus did in China would that be an indication of what to expect from Covenant over there?

I don't know.  China is one of the fastest growing markets for Hollywood so my general assumption is that it would probably do better now than Prometheus did.  However, pirating is a huge deal in China and if they don't get the same release date, or earlier, movies tend to suffer a bit there.  That being said, I can't find numbers for Prometheus in China so who knows?  ???
Quote from: oduodu on May 05, 2017, 07:17:14 PM
Can't find any for China either.

Quote from: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 07:14:41 PM
Quote from: oduodu on May 05, 2017, 06:36:17 PM
If I knew what Prometheus did in China would that be an indication of what to expect from Covenant over there?

I don't know.  China is one of the fastest growing markets for Hollywood so my general assumption is that it would probably do better now than Prometheus did.  However, pirating is a huge deal in China and if they don't get the same release date, or earlier, movies tend to suffer a bit there.  That being said, I can't find numbers for Prometheus in China so who knows?  ???

Prometheus raked in less than $50m there (https://chinafilmbiz.com/2013/01/13/chinas-box-office-2012-re-cap-another-stellar-year/), and it opened with $4.59m (http://english.entgroup.cn/views_detail.aspx?id=767). The range is huge. But it is between this and that figure.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 07:26:11 PM
Quote from: fiveways on May 05, 2017, 01:37:41 PM
Quote from: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 01:25:50 PM
Quote from: fiveways on May 05, 2017, 01:14:18 PM
Quote from: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 12:20:41 PM
Quote from: SuicideDoors on May 04, 2017, 08:01:26 PM
https://twitter.com/boxoffice/status/860197687706218496

Hopefully these guys are just full of shit and they haven't got a clue but they reckon Covenant is only tracking mid 30s/high 30s for opening weekend. I really think it has to open over $50million!

They are usually pretty accurate and have their own models (which aren't all that complicated) that take into account release window, genre, franchise, competition and some polling information.  They may even have access to some meta data raked from the internet.  Overall they usually produce a pretty accurate estimate, but occasionally they under/over shoot.

Someone else asked how much a movie has to make to 'break even'.  A general rule of thumb is that the studio will take, approximately, 50% of the US market (front heavy) and approximately 33% of the foreign market (varying wildly by country with China being exceptionally low ~ 25%).

I do not know what the estimated budget is here but I have heard rumors of it being around 150 million dollars.  That doesn't include marketing/distribution so that would add on another 80+ (Matt Damon's Great Wall movie had an 80 million dollar marketing campaign and Covenant seems more visible).

Essentially the number to hit is roughly 200-250 million. 

.5*(NA B.O.) + .25(Chinas B.O.) + .4 (Non China foreign B.O.) = studio's take.

Let's assume it mimics Prometheus (which I think is generous)...  the studio's take on Prometheus was roughly: 63 million domestic and 111 million WW for a total of 174 million.

250m seems the magic number in my mind.  It'll make that.  Now that it is confirmed for a Chinese release, it's do Prometheus type money.  It's not going to be another deadpool as that has massive crossover market people super interested in it.  This is a straight up sci-fi/horror flick with some cross over potential.

It will lose to Baywatch like Fury Road lost to Pitch Perfect 2 (in the end Fury Road made near 100m more than Pitch Perfect 2 as few people outside of the USA give a f**k about that kinda shit).  The final number breakdown will also be the same.  1/3rd from the Domestic market, and 2/3rds international.  $375-$410m total.  That is the comfort zone for these kinda movies.  Fox will be happy and there will be a sequel ok instantly.  Hopefully they can start filming it quickly and get it out by 2019.

When I say 200-250, that is the number the studio has to get from THEIR CUT of the B.O.  Which means the B.O. has to be considerably higher.

If it does 150 dom and 300 WW then the studio will pocket roughly 75+120 = about 200 million, at best.  If China is the majority of that then the studio will get less.

My guess is they need about 550 total (including domestic and foreign) to break even/start to feel good.

Does this factor in tax breaks and all that?  We have the budget upfront but I always thought that was before shooting incentives, tax breaks, product/company placement and all that shit.  We know they fronted 150m on the film, but how much of that is recoverable even before the movie hits?

This is the side I've never found a ton of information on. The "what comes first" part of it.  I get it on indie pictures but for something with this sort of money being tossed at it, i'd be interested in know the full processes.  Hollywood math fascinates me.

Since you were asking, I looked up some of the dvd sales as an example of how much more a movie can add to it's profitability through that avenue.

Through 2016 and 2017 deadpool made an additional 92 million in blu ray and dvd sales.  The force awakens made nearly 180 million dollars in sales.  Those are both extreme examples but it shows you how valuable that market really is.  Again, it doesn't help the studio in showing people how valuable their franchise is, but it helps make up for a lot of losses.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Protozoid on May 05, 2017, 07:30:14 PM
Prometheus ranked higher on the domestic home video charts than it did theatrically.  It was a top seller and renter and had good legs.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 07:34:44 PM
Quote from: Protozoid on May 05, 2017, 07:30:14 PM
Prometheus ranked higher on the domestic home video charts than it did theatrically.  It was a top seller and renter and had good legs.

It made roughly 40 million dollars through dvd and blu ray sales.

Looks like it was the 12th best seller in blu rays in 2012 and 65th in dvd sales.

Overall it made 40 million and that is nearly 10% of the box office.  That's a good addition.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: oduodu on May 05, 2017, 07:55:02 PM
Ok thanks. 50mil for prometheus in china.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Protozoid on May 05, 2017, 08:12:33 PM
I wonder if this is tracking low. I don't see why they would distance themselves from Prometheus if they were aiming lower, box office wise. I thought this move was motivated by Star Wars and the rise of IP. They were hoping for big numbers based on the legacy of the Alien movies.  Surely Prometheus 2 and/or Alien 5 would have done at least this well?
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Ingwar on May 05, 2017, 08:16:53 PM
Quote from: Robopadna on May 05, 2017, 07:34:44 PM
Quote from: Protozoid on May 05, 2017, 07:30:14 PM
Prometheus ranked higher on the domestic home video charts than it did theatrically.  It was a top seller and renter and had good legs.

It made roughly 40 million dollars through dvd and blu ray sales.

Looks like it was the 12th best seller in blu rays in 2012 and 65th in dvd sales.

Overall it made 40 million and that is nearly 10% of the box office.  That's a good addition.

It made 43 millions from DVD/Blu-ray sales in US. We don't know how much it made worldwide. Is it even possible to find that out?
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Spidey3121 on May 06, 2017, 11:25:40 PM
Been away for several months. Was hoping to start the discussion on Box Office projections as I had done w/ Prometheus but see I'm WAY to late  :laugh:

http://www.avpgalaxy.net/forum/index.php?topic=43861.0

I listed 5 sites for Prometheus. These days I pretty much rely on Box Office Mojo (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/) and a Forbes writer, Scott Mendelson (https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/#da8c37227e19). Both are available to follow on Twitter. Scott writes a lot, whereas Mojo is a comprehensive collection of numbers. Of course, there are many other people & sites that devote a wealth of time to tracking & reporting BO information.

FOX is certainly confident as shown by moving the release date from August to the pre-memorial day weekend. They've sure been promoting it quite enthusiastically as well. As for my personal predication, I'd like to be hopeful and believe that it will surpass both the domestic and international totals for Prometheus. Let's say: $60 mil opening weekend, $150 mil domestic total, $500 mil WW total.

Also, something to keep in mind; we love the franchise, but to the general public, there hasn't been an outright hit film, both from a financial & critical perspective, in 30 years. Prometheus pulled solid numbers, & I'm of the opinion that it's very good. Many share that opinion, but many do not. Reaction was incredibly divisive. FOX is banking on brand recognition & nostalgia to pull in audiences. Sometimes that works (Jurassic World) & sometimes that doesn't (ID4 Resurgence).
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: dkwookie on May 07, 2017, 12:44:08 AM
If I was to talk about the box office situation I fear we are looking at Parker and Brett rather than Ripley and Dallas. I would love to see it do 40 million opening in the US but fear it's going to under 30.
I just have a bad feeling about it
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: newagescamartist on May 07, 2017, 03:37:47 AM
Quote from: Dkwookie on May 07, 2017, 12:44:08 AM
If I was to talk about the box office situation I fear we are looking at Parker and Brett rather than Ripley and Dallas. I would love to see it do 40 million opening in the US but fear it's going to under 30.
I just have a bad feeling about it

Might be the last Alien movie we get for awhile if it opens at less than $30 million.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Corporal Hicks on May 07, 2017, 08:59:25 AM
Has there been any updates considering the first reviews?
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Protozoid on May 07, 2017, 08:24:47 PM
I wish I knew what was going through the minds of the people at Fox and Scott Free during process of making and releasing Covenant.

Do they feel justified in amping up the violence and franchise appeal if this movie doesn't have a prayer of matching the box office for The Martian?

If it doesn't match Prometheus, I imagine Noomi Rapace is going to ring everyone at Fox and Scott Free to tell them she told them so.

Ridley should really stick to his guns from now on. Commercial success is never guaranteed. He should be following his bliss at this stage of his career.


Quote from: Corporal Hicks on May 07, 2017, 08:59:25 AM
Has there been any updates considering the first reviews?
I don't know if this has been posted, yet, but BoxOffice.com did up their estimates slightly:

$40M opening weekend
$105M domestic total.

They noted: "First traditional tracking and social media buzz have improved our outlook for Alien: Covenant. Positive reviews will still be important to its success, though."

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-transformers-last-knight/ (http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-transformers-last-knight/)
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: PierreVW on May 07, 2017, 08:36:56 PM
I predict 500 Million USD Worldwide.

That's HIGHER than PROMETHEUS.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: BishopShouldGo on May 07, 2017, 08:51:45 PM
Quote from: Protozoid on May 07, 2017, 08:24:47 PM
I wish I knew what was going through the minds of the people at Fox and Scott Free during process of making and releasing Covenant.

Do they feel justified in amping up the violence and franchise appeal if this movie doesn't have a prayer of matching the box office for The Martian?

If it doesn't match Prometheus, I imagine Noomi Rapace is going to ring everyone at Fox and Scott Free to tell them she told them so.

Ridley should really stick to his guns from now on. Commercial success is never guaranteed. He should be following his bliss at this stage of his career.


Quote from: Corporal Hicks on May 07, 2017, 08:59:25 AM
Has there been any updates considering the first reviews?
I don't know if this has been posted, yet, but BoxOffice.com did up their estimates slightly:

$40M opening weekend
$105M domestic total.

They noted: "First traditional tracking and social media buzz have improved our outlook for Alien: Covenant. Positive reviews will still be important to its success, though."

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-transformers-last-knight/ (http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-transformers-last-knight/)

I think The Force Awakens, The Martian and Deadpool all had a hand in emboldening Scott and Fox to make what ultimately became Covenant. The Force Awakens inspired Scott to go back to the roots, The Martian being a massive success further solidified Fox's confidence in Scott, and Deadpool with the tough R-rating and extreme violence.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Ragonk_Force on May 07, 2017, 09:04:37 PM
The reviews are going to boost it. Enough good ones to make people want to see for themselves
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: PierreVW on May 07, 2017, 10:09:28 PM
Quote from: BishopShouldGo on May 07, 2017, 08:51:45 PM
Quote from: Protozoid on May 07, 2017, 08:24:47 PM
I wish I knew what was going through the minds of the people at Fox and Scott Free during process of making and releasing Covenant.

Do they feel justified in amping up the violence and franchise appeal if this movie doesn't have a prayer of matching the box office for The Martian?

If it doesn't match Prometheus, I imagine Noomi Rapace is going to ring everyone at Fox and Scott Free to tell them she told them so.

Ridley should really stick to his guns from now on. Commercial success is never guaranteed. He should be following his bliss at this stage of his career.


Quote from: Corporal Hicks on May 07, 2017, 08:59:25 AM
Has there been any updates considering the first reviews?
I don't know if this has been posted, yet, but BoxOffice.com did up their estimates slightly:

$40M opening weekend
$105M domestic total.

They noted: "First traditional tracking and social media buzz have improved our outlook for Alien: Covenant. Positive reviews will still be important to its success, though."

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-transformers-last-knight/ (http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-transformers-last-knight/)

I think The Force Awakens, The Martian and Deadpool all had a hand in emboldening Scott and Fox to make what ultimately became Covenant. The Force Awakens inspired Scott to go back to the roots, The Martian being a massive success further solidified Fox's confidence in Scott, and Deadpool with the tough R-rating and extreme violence.

I agree.

Sir Ridley Scott said "ALIEN movies are MY STAR WARS". He wants to Direct 5 ALIEN Movies:

1.- ALIEN. 2.- PROMETHEUS. 3.- ALIEN: COVENANT. 4.- ALIEN: AWAKENING. 5.- ALIEN 5.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Protozoid on May 08, 2017, 12:37:14 AM
Quote from: PierreVW on May 07, 2017, 10:09:28 PM
Quote from: BishopShouldGo on May 07, 2017, 08:51:45 PM
Quote from: Protozoid on May 07, 2017, 08:24:47 PM
I wish I knew what was going through the minds of the people at Fox and Scott Free during process of making and releasing Covenant.

Do they feel justified in amping up the violence and franchise appeal if this movie doesn't have a prayer of matching the box office for The Martian?

If it doesn't match Prometheus, I imagine Noomi Rapace is going to ring everyone at Fox and Scott Free to tell them she told them so.

Ridley should really stick to his guns from now on. Commercial success is never guaranteed. He should be following his bliss at this stage of his career.


Quote from: Corporal Hicks on May 07, 2017, 08:59:25 AM
Has there been any updates considering the first reviews?
I don't know if this has been posted, yet, but BoxOffice.com did up their estimates slightly:

$40M opening weekend
$105M domestic total.

They noted: "First traditional tracking and social media buzz have improved our outlook for Alien: Covenant. Positive reviews will still be important to its success, though."

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-transformers-last-knight/ (http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-transformers-last-knight/)

I think The Force Awakens, The Martian and Deadpool all had a hand in emboldening Scott and Fox to make what ultimately became Covenant. The Force Awakens inspired Scott to go back to the roots, The Martian being a massive success further solidified Fox's confidence in Scott, and Deadpool with the tough R-rating and extreme violence.

I agree.

Sir Ridley Scott said "ALIEN movies are MY STAR WARS". He wants to Direct 5 ALIEN Movies:

1.- ALIEN. 2.- PROMETHEUS. 3.- ALIEN: COVENANT. 4.- ALIEN: AWAKENING. 5.- ALIEN 5.
The problem is that Lucas had the money and the attitude to stick to his guns and finish his story the way he envisioned it. Scott isn't naive enough to think Fox will give him the kind of freedom Lucas had. Scott must be referring to the new Star Wars movies, which cynically recycle elements to pander to nostalgia-blind fanboys. If that's Scott's plan, then I'm disappointed in him. He's better than that.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Samhain13 on May 08, 2017, 12:45:25 AM
Quote from: Protozoid on May 08, 2017, 12:37:14 AM
Quote from: PierreVW on May 07, 2017, 10:09:28 PM
Quote from: BishopShouldGo on May 07, 2017, 08:51:45 PM
Quote from: Protozoid on May 07, 2017, 08:24:47 PM
I wish I knew what was going through the minds of the people at Fox and Scott Free during process of making and releasing Covenant.

Do they feel justified in amping up the violence and franchise appeal if this movie doesn't have a prayer of matching the box office for The Martian?

If it doesn't match Prometheus, I imagine Noomi Rapace is going to ring everyone at Fox and Scott Free to tell them she told them so.

Ridley should really stick to his guns from now on. Commercial success is never guaranteed. He should be following his bliss at this stage of his career.


Quote from: Corporal Hicks on May 07, 2017, 08:59:25 AM
Has there been any updates considering the first reviews?
I don't know if this has been posted, yet, but BoxOffice.com did up their estimates slightly:

$40M opening weekend
$105M domestic total.

They noted: "First traditional tracking and social media buzz have improved our outlook for Alien: Covenant. Positive reviews will still be important to its success, though."

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-transformers-last-knight/ (http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-transformers-last-knight/)

I think The Force Awakens, The Martian and Deadpool all had a hand in emboldening Scott and Fox to make what ultimately became Covenant. The Force Awakens inspired Scott to go back to the roots, The Martian being a massive success further solidified Fox's confidence in Scott, and Deadpool with the tough R-rating and extreme violence.

I agree.

Sir Ridley Scott said "ALIEN movies are MY STAR WARS". He wants to Direct 5 ALIEN Movies:

1.- ALIEN. 2.- PROMETHEUS. 3.- ALIEN: COVENANT. 4.- ALIEN: AWAKENING. 5.- ALIEN 5.
The problem is that Lucas had the money and the attitude to stick to his guns and finish his story the way he envisioned it. Scott isn't naive enough to think Fox will give him the kind of freedom Lucas had. Scott must be referring to the new Star Wars movies, which cynically recycle elements to pander to nostalgia-blind fanboys. If that's Scott's plan, then I'm disappointed in him. He's better than that.

Well Lucas changed somethings along the way, Vader becoming Luke's father, Leia becoming Luke's sister but when he started the prequels he really decided to "stick to his guns and finish his story the way he envisioned it" , despite all the hate from Episode I.

Scoot didn't seem to have a major plan when he decided to make Prometheus, he just waits for each movie to be released and watches the response from it before deciding to where to go next with the story.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Ragonk_Force on May 08, 2017, 12:51:37 AM
I believe Fassbender's amazing portrayal is driving alot of the narrative that Ridley is perusing
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: PierreVW on May 08, 2017, 12:59:20 AM
Quote from: Protozoid on May 08, 2017, 12:37:14 AM
Quote from: PierreVW on May 07, 2017, 10:09:28 PM
Quote from: BishopShouldGo on May 07, 2017, 08:51:45 PM
Quote from: Protozoid on May 07, 2017, 08:24:47 PM
I wish I knew what was going through the minds of the people at Fox and Scott Free during process of making and releasing Covenant.

Do they feel justified in amping up the violence and franchise appeal if this movie doesn't have a prayer of matching the box office for The Martian?

If it doesn't match Prometheus, I imagine Noomi Rapace is going to ring everyone at Fox and Scott Free to tell them she told them so.

Ridley should really stick to his guns from now on. Commercial success is never guaranteed. He should be following his bliss at this stage of his career.


Quote from: Corporal Hicks on May 07, 2017, 08:59:25 AM
Has there been any updates considering the first reviews?
I don't know if this has been posted, yet, but BoxOffice.com did up their estimates slightly:

$40M opening weekend
$105M domestic total.

They noted: "First traditional tracking and social media buzz have improved our outlook for Alien: Covenant. Positive reviews will still be important to its success, though."

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-transformers-last-knight/ (http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-transformers-last-knight/)

I think The Force Awakens, The Martian and Deadpool all had a hand in emboldening Scott and Fox to make what ultimately became Covenant. The Force Awakens inspired Scott to go back to the roots, The Martian being a massive success further solidified Fox's confidence in Scott, and Deadpool with the tough R-rating and extreme violence.

I agree.

Sir Ridley Scott said "ALIEN movies are MY STAR WARS". He wants to Direct 5 ALIEN Movies:

1.- ALIEN. 2.- PROMETHEUS. 3.- ALIEN: COVENANT. 4.- ALIEN: AWAKENING. 5.- ALIEN 5.
The problem is that Lucas had the money and the attitude to stick to his guns and finish his story the way he envisioned it. Scott isn't naive enough to think Fox will give him the kind of freedom Lucas had. Scott must be referring to the new Star Wars movies, which cynically recycle elements to pander to nostalgia-blind fanboys. If that's Scott's plan, then I'm disappointed in him. He's better than that.

My friend, I know you loved PROMETHEUS.

Don't worry, ALIEN: AWAKENING is the PROMETHEUS 2 you always wanted.


Quote from: Ragonk_Force on May 08, 2017, 12:51:37 AM
I believe Fassbender's amazing portrayal is driving alot of the narrative that Ridley is perusing

I agree.

Michael Fassbender is HIS NEW Russell Crowe.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Protozoid on May 08, 2017, 01:09:21 AM
Quote from: PierreVW on May 08, 2017, 12:59:20 AM
Quote from: Protozoid on May 08, 2017, 12:37:14 AM
Quote from: PierreVW on May 07, 2017, 10:09:28 PM
Quote from: BishopShouldGo on May 07, 2017, 08:51:45 PM
Quote from: Protozoid on May 07, 2017, 08:24:47 PM
I wish I knew what was going through the minds of the people at Fox and Scott Free during process of making and releasing Covenant.

Do they feel justified in amping up the violence and franchise appeal if this movie doesn't have a prayer of matching the box office for The Martian?

If it doesn't match Prometheus, I imagine Noomi Rapace is going to ring everyone at Fox and Scott Free to tell them she told them so.

Ridley should really stick to his guns from now on. Commercial success is never guaranteed. He should be following his bliss at this stage of his career.


Quote from: Corporal Hicks on May 07, 2017, 08:59:25 AM
Has there been any updates considering the first reviews?
I don't know if this has been posted, yet, but BoxOffice.com did up their estimates slightly:

$40M opening weekend
$105M domestic total.

They noted: "First traditional tracking and social media buzz have improved our outlook for Alien: Covenant. Positive reviews will still be important to its success, though."

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-transformers-last-knight/ (http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-transformers-last-knight/)

I think The Force Awakens, The Martian and Deadpool all had a hand in emboldening Scott and Fox to make what ultimately became Covenant. The Force Awakens inspired Scott to go back to the roots, The Martian being a massive success further solidified Fox's confidence in Scott, and Deadpool with the tough R-rating and extreme violence.

I agree.

Sir Ridley Scott said "ALIEN movies are MY STAR WARS". He wants to Direct 5 ALIEN Movies:

1.- ALIEN. 2.- PROMETHEUS. 3.- ALIEN: COVENANT. 4.- ALIEN: AWAKENING. 5.- ALIEN 5.
The problem is that Lucas had the money and the attitude to stick to his guns and finish his story the way he envisioned it. Scott isn't naive enough to think Fox will give him the kind of freedom Lucas had. Scott must be referring to the new Star Wars movies, which cynically recycle elements to pander to nostalgia-blind fanboys. If that's Scott's plan, then I'm disappointed in him. He's better than that.

My friend, I know you loved PROMETHEUS.

Don't worry, ALIEN: AWAKENING is the PROMETHEUS 2 you always wanted.
Have you heard something we haven't? I sure hope so.

Unless it's a prequel to Covenant, I'm not sure that's possible, but I'll try to remain optimistic.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: PierreVW on May 08, 2017, 02:27:42 AM
Quote from: Protozoid on May 08, 2017, 01:09:21 AM
Quote from: PierreVW on May 08, 2017, 12:59:20 AM
Quote from: Protozoid on May 08, 2017, 12:37:14 AM
Quote from: PierreVW on May 07, 2017, 10:09:28 PM
Quote from: BishopShouldGo on May 07, 2017, 08:51:45 PM
Quote from: Protozoid on May 07, 2017, 08:24:47 PM
I wish I knew what was going through the minds of the people at Fox and Scott Free during process of making and releasing Covenant.

Do they feel justified in amping up the violence and franchise appeal if this movie doesn't have a prayer of matching the box office for The Martian?

If it doesn't match Prometheus, I imagine Noomi Rapace is going to ring everyone at Fox and Scott Free to tell them she told them so.

Ridley should really stick to his guns from now on. Commercial success is never guaranteed. He should be following his bliss at this stage of his career.


Quote from: Corporal Hicks on May 07, 2017, 08:59:25 AM
Has there been any updates considering the first reviews?
I don't know if this has been posted, yet, but BoxOffice.com did up their estimates slightly:

$40M opening weekend
$105M domestic total.

They noted: "First traditional tracking and social media buzz have improved our outlook for Alien: Covenant. Positive reviews will still be important to its success, though."

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-transformers-last-knight/ (http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-transformers-last-knight/)

I think The Force Awakens, The Martian and Deadpool all had a hand in emboldening Scott and Fox to make what ultimately became Covenant. The Force Awakens inspired Scott to go back to the roots, The Martian being a massive success further solidified Fox's confidence in Scott, and Deadpool with the tough R-rating and extreme violence.

I agree.

Sir Ridley Scott said "ALIEN movies are MY STAR WARS". He wants to Direct 5 ALIEN Movies:

1.- ALIEN. 2.- PROMETHEUS. 3.- ALIEN: COVENANT. 4.- ALIEN: AWAKENING. 5.- ALIEN 5.
The problem is that Lucas had the money and the attitude to stick to his guns and finish his story the way he envisioned it. Scott isn't naive enough to think Fox will give him the kind of freedom Lucas had. Scott must be referring to the new Star Wars movies, which cynically recycle elements to pander to nostalgia-blind fanboys. If that's Scott's plan, then I'm disappointed in him. He's better than that.

My friend, I know you loved PROMETHEUS.

Don't worry, ALIEN: AWAKENING is the PROMETHEUS 2 you always wanted.
Have you heard something we haven't? I sure hope so.

Unless it's a prequel to Covenant, I'm not sure that's possible, but I'll try to remain optimistic.

It sounds weird but yes....

.... ALIEN: AWAKENING is a Prequel of ALIEN: COVENANT.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Protozoid on May 08, 2017, 02:38:17 AM
Quote from: PierreVW on May 08, 2017, 02:27:42 AM
It sounds weird but yes....

.... ALIEN: AWAKENING is a Prequel of ALIEN: COVENANT.
You made my day. Thanks, Pierre.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: BishopShouldGo on May 08, 2017, 02:53:09 AM
Uh no it's not Pierre.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Robopadna on May 08, 2017, 02:57:13 AM
Quote from: Protozoid on May 08, 2017, 02:38:17 AM
Quote from: PierreVW on May 08, 2017, 02:27:42 AM
It sounds weird but yes....

.... ALIEN: AWAKENING is a Prequel of ALIEN: COVENANT.
You made my day. Thanks, Pierre.

He's wrong. It isn't.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Protozoid on May 08, 2017, 03:22:19 AM
Are you guys just being skeptical? Because unless I missed something, I'm pretty sure Ridley's statement has not been officially corrected and Pierre's info has been solid so far.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Samhain13 on May 08, 2017, 03:25:51 AM
Wait. So Ridley is making a prequel to a prequel? That's my boy Ridley. Unbelievable as always.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Anthony on May 08, 2017, 03:33:27 AM
I'm preeeeetty sure Ridley just mispoke.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: BishopShouldGo on May 08, 2017, 03:50:00 AM
Protozoid, I know you're in love with Prometheus, as am I, and Awakening being a prequel to Covenant means we would get a David & Shaw adventure without the horror tropes, but it's just not true, don't be seduced. Ridley misspeaks all the time and Pierre spreads misinformation at a breathtaking rate.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: WinsteadLeung on May 08, 2017, 04:20:24 AM
Guys!CHINA release date
JUNE 16!
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: SuicideDoors on May 10, 2017, 12:44:26 PM
https://twitter.com/boxofficeleblog/status/862233902257233920

Bit of advanced Box Office news from France....
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Corporal Hicks on May 10, 2017, 01:03:34 PM
Merging with existing box office predictions thread.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: juxtapose on May 10, 2017, 01:25:42 PM
. .can someone translate. .please!
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Corporal Hicks on May 10, 2017, 01:44:45 PM
Quote from: juxtapose on May 10, 2017, 01:25:42 PM
. .can someone translate. .please!

It says - Trends books from Wednesday 8: 00 at #gaumontpathe #AlienCovenant 8 237 tickets pre-sold. Better than #GhostInTheShell(6 243), #Logan...
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: BishopShouldGo on May 10, 2017, 02:41:42 PM
Big things...
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Ulm on May 10, 2017, 02:59:24 PM
I predict:
100m domestic
260m foreign

So 360m worldwide. Pretty modest
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: SuicideDoors on May 10, 2017, 09:03:38 PM
http://pro.boxoffice.com/facebook/today/

Top tracking movie on the internet at the moment. Hopefully that translates to lots of money!
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Corporal Hicks on May 11, 2017, 07:55:58 AM
It's dropped down one today. I feel conflicted. I want it to perform well because I want more Alien movies, I'm not sure I want more of the story Ridley has in mind at the minute, though.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: newagescamartist on May 11, 2017, 08:04:38 AM
Quote from: Corporal Hicks on May 11, 2017, 07:55:58 AM
It's dropped down one today. I feel conflicted. I want it to perform well because I want more Alien movies, I'm not sure I want more of the story Ridley has in mind at the minute, though.

He's certainly shown he's adaptable and willing to listen to the fanbase. If the overall vibe is disliked by the fanbase I can honestly see Ridley cooking up something else. Ultimately he wants to entertain people while telling a good story. I don't think he's so set in his ways that he won't listen to criticism. This is what sets him apart from someone like Lucas or Cameron. We just need to be respectful of some of the criticisms. I think this website leads by example and I hope he reads the comments here.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: SuicideDoors on May 11, 2017, 08:47:02 AM
Quote from: Corporal Hicks on May 11, 2017, 07:55:58 AM
It's dropped down one today. I feel conflicted. I want it to perform well because I want more Alien movies, I'm not sure I want more of the story Ridley has in mind at the minute, though.

I fear the consequences of it not performing are far worse.

And Ridley Scott says a lot of things. I love him to pieces, but I don't think he'll do another Alien movie after Covenant.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: cucuchu on May 11, 2017, 01:57:07 PM
I had originally been quite optimistic, thinking it would perform in the 400million+ at the Box Office, but I am going to cut that down drastically to 60 million domestically in the US and 120 million WW. Reason being, I do not see the hype for it here in the states (anecdotally anyways) and theaters are utilizing their premium screens (IMAX, Dolby, etc) for Guardians of the Galaxy 2 (during its 3rd week, Alien's first) and Pirates of the Caribbean on its first week and going forward (Alien's 2nd and going forward). People I talk to seem confused about it and either do not know what I am talking about or are in the mind of "Oh, is that coming out this year? huh...."...i.e. it does not seem like many people are tracking or following it. I HOPE I am dead wrong but between the lack of enthusiasm from the general public, at least that I have encountered, and the lack of theater confidence in the film, I just don't see it performing well by any standard.

Maybe audiences from everywhere outside the US can make up for its potential lack of performance here. I certainly hope so. I know some people think that it could be a good thing if it does not perform well because it might make Ridley Scott reconsider his direction with the series, but I fear they may just scrap Ridley Scott from control of the series altogether and bring in someone fresh 10 - 15 years from now when they feel its time for another go.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: replicon on May 11, 2017, 01:58:10 PM
Quote from: newagescamartist on May 11, 2017, 08:04:38 AM
Quote from: Corporal Hicks on May 11, 2017, 07:55:58 AM
It's dropped down one today. I feel conflicted. I want it to perform well because I want more Alien movies, I'm not sure I want more of the story Ridley has in mind at the minute, though.

He's certainly shown he's adaptable and willing to listen to the fanbase. If the overall vibe is disliked by the fanbase I can honestly see Ridley cooking up something else. Ultimately he wants to entertain people while telling a good story. I don't think he's so set in his ways that he won't listen to criticism. This is what sets him apart from someone like Lucas or Cameron. We just need to be respectful of some of the criticisms. I think this website leads by example and I hope he reads the comments here.

"When I'm making a movie I'm going through the eye of a needle and your either with me or against me". He's not someone that is known for his compromising attitude .
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: BishopShouldGo on May 11, 2017, 03:14:16 PM
It'll do spectacularly. You all need to be hope so too. If it doesn't do well, they won't start with a blank slate, they will keep it dormant for years.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: fiveways on May 11, 2017, 03:29:27 PM
Quote from: cucuchu on May 11, 2017, 01:57:07 PM
I had originally been quite optimistic, thinking it would perform in the 400million+ at the Box Office, but I am going to cut that down drastically to 60 million domestically in the US and 120 million WW. Reason being, I do not see the hype for it here in the states (anecdotally anyways) and theaters are utilizing their premium screens (IMAX, Dolby, etc) for Guardians of the Galaxy 2 (during its 3rd week, Alien's first) and Pirates of the Caribbean on its first week and going forward (Alien's 2nd and going forward). People I talk to seem confused about it and either do not know what I am talking about or are in the mind of "Oh, is that coming out this year? huh...."...i.e. it does not seem like many people are tracking or following it. I HOPE I am dead wrong but between the lack of enthusiasm from the general public, at least that I have encountered, and the lack of theater confidence in the film, I just don't see it performing well by any standard.

Maybe audiences from everywhere outside the US can make up for its potential lack of performance here. I certainly hope so. I know some people think that it could be a good thing if it does not perform well because it might make Ridley Scott reconsider his direction with the series, but I fear they may just scrap Ridley Scott from control of the series altogether and bring in someone fresh 10 - 15 years from now when they feel its time for another go.

$180m would certainly shelf it for a long time.  That would be consider a massive flop.  It might break even with those numbers after tax breaks, netflix, digital and broadcast rights and all that jazz, but it definitely wouldn't be enough to green light a sequel.  You do make a good point about its competition for screens around it's release.  That said, it is the only Hard R movie being released this summer which might help it (but as you said there is a lot of consumer apathy towards it currently).

300m worldwide is my revised guess.  It's make money but not enough to secure an instant sequel.  Not enough for Fox to feel secure in the direction they are heading in either. 
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: chris_bert on May 11, 2017, 03:32:53 PM
I fear the consequences of it not performing are far worse.

And Ridley Scott says a lot of things. I love him to pieces, but I don't think he'll do another Alien movie after Covenant.
[/quote]
After hearing about the reviews and such, I'm not planning on seeing it in the theater any longer and will either catch it on Netflix or purchase the blu ray when it's released. Was just curious about your comment where you think there won't be another Alien movie after Covenant...have you already seen it or is this just what you are feeling after some of the information made available by reviewers that have already seen the film? I'm just curious.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant\'s Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: cucuchu on May 11, 2017, 03:33:51 PM
Quote from: BishopShouldGo on May 11, 2017, 03:14:16 PM
It'll do spectacularly. You all need to be hope so too. If it doesn't do well, they won't start with a blank slate, they will keep it dormant for years.

That is my fear too. I keep going back and forth on how I feel it will do. If you look on youtube (where a lot of people go for their review source) and see some of the popular reviewers, they are all over the place. Some love it, some really like it, some says its decent and some just do not like it at all. Although, usually the ones in the "don't like it crowd" seem to spend most of their reviews mocking the storytelling and that these colonists were be so dumb to get themselves into the situation in the first place, but that does not really bother me. I can suspend my disbelief if it makes for good storytelling because if every story every told only involved people behaving in perfectly logical, intelligent manners, then there would be no interesting stories. You need people to screw up and make bad decisions. Its why there is a damn story in the first place. So yeah, I don't see that bothering the general audience too much.

Back to the point though... its really hard to predict at this point. Theaters don't seem to have much confidence in it here in the states (I've gone on about this and even made a thread pertaining to it), but maybe public interest can push beyond that and make theaters sorry they didn't prioritize Alien Covenant over GotG2 (on its 3rd week no less).


Quote from: fiveways on May 11, 2017, 03:29:27 PM
Quote from: cucuchu on May 11, 2017, 01:57:07 PM
I had originally been quite optimistic, thinking it would perform in the 400million+ at the Box Office, but I am going to cut that down drastically to 60 million domestically in the US and 120 million WW. Reason being, I do not see the hype for it here in the states (anecdotally anyways) and theaters are utilizing their premium screens (IMAX, Dolby, etc) for Guardians of the Galaxy 2 (during its 3rd week, Alien's first) and Pirates of the Caribbean on its first week and going forward (Alien's 2nd and going forward). People I talk to seem confused about it and either do not know what I am talking about or are in the mind of "Oh, is that coming out this year? huh...."...i.e. it does not seem like many people are tracking or following it. I HOPE I am dead wrong but between the lack of enthusiasm from the general public, at least that I have encountered, and the lack of theater confidence in the film, I just don't see it performing well by any standard.

Maybe audiences from everywhere outside the US can make up for its potential lack of performance here. I certainly hope so. I know some people think that it could be a good thing if it does not perform well because it might make Ridley Scott reconsider his direction with the series, but I fear they may just scrap Ridley Scott from control of the series altogether and bring in someone fresh 10 - 15 years from now when they feel its time for another go.

$180m would certainly shelf it for a long time.  That would be consider a massive flop.  It might break even with those numbers after tax breaks, netflix, digital and broadcast rights and all that jazz, but it definitely wouldn't be enough to green light a sequel.  You do make a good point about its competition for screens around it's release.  That said, it is the only Hard R movie being released this summer which might help it (but as you said there is a lot of consumer apathy towards it currently).

300m worldwide is my revised guess.  It's make money but not enough to secure an instant sequel.  Not enough for Fox to feel secure in the direction they are heading in either.

$300m worldwide would be my guess on the optimistic side and I could get behind that depending on how the opening weekend goes here in the states and we see the numbers from around the world.

Again though, my interpretation of public apathy is merely based on the people I have run across in my local area (Washington D.C, Baltimore area). It might not be indicative of the rest of the country. The theaters not prioritizing it could be based on any number of factors that I am not aware of such as deals made between studios and theaters to support films in IMAX for a certain number of weeks, or anything really. Since reviewers are all over the place with reviews, its hard to determine how that will effect things because it seems like for every so-so review, there is a good one and it really depends on who people trust for their reviews and if they are even influenced by them. I suppose one piece of good news is that there are very few actual negative reviews in comparison to the good/decent reviews. In fact, there are far more very positive reviews than very negative. So there is some hope....
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: fiveways on May 11, 2017, 03:47:51 PM
Quote from: cucuchu on May 11, 2017, 03:33:51 PM
Quote from: BishopShouldGo on May 11, 2017, 03:14:16 PM
It'll do spectacularly. You all need to be hope so too. If it doesn't do well, they won't start with a blank slate, they will keep it dormant for years.

.

Back to the point though... its really hard to predict at this point. Theaters don't seem to have much confidence in it here in the states (I've gone on about this and even made a thread pertaining to it), but maybe public interest can push beyond that and make theaters sorry they didn't prioritize Alien Covenant over GotG2 (on its 3rd week no less).

I can't see that happening.  Third week for GotG2 will still be super strong as that is when people who dislike crowds of children will start going to see it.  I'm actually planning to head out to a late showing of it that week/weekend as the initial fury of activity will be over and it will be a much more reasonable and reserved crowd. 
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Robopadna on May 11, 2017, 04:12:11 PM
Quote from: fiveways on May 11, 2017, 03:29:27 PM
Quote from: cucuchu on May 11, 2017, 01:57:07 PM
I had originally been quite optimistic, thinking it would perform in the 400million+ at the Box Office, but I am going to cut that down drastically to 60 million domestically in the US and 120 million WW. Reason being, I do not see the hype for it here in the states (anecdotally anyways) and theaters are utilizing their premium screens (IMAX, Dolby, etc) for Guardians of the Galaxy 2 (during its 3rd week, Alien's first) and Pirates of the Caribbean on its first week and going forward (Alien's 2nd and going forward). People I talk to seem confused about it and either do not know what I am talking about or are in the mind of "Oh, is that coming out this year? huh...."...i.e. it does not seem like many people are tracking or following it. I HOPE I am dead wrong but between the lack of enthusiasm from the general public, at least that I have encountered, and the lack of theater confidence in the film, I just don't see it performing well by any standard.

Maybe audiences from everywhere outside the US can make up for its potential lack of performance here. I certainly hope so. I know some people think that it could be a good thing if it does not perform well because it might make Ridley Scott reconsider his direction with the series, but I fear they may just scrap Ridley Scott from control of the series altogether and bring in someone fresh 10 - 15 years from now when they feel its time for another go.

$180m would certainly shelf it for a long time.  That would be consider a massive flop.  It might break even with those numbers after tax breaks, netflix, digital and broadcast rights and all that jazz, but it definitely wouldn't be enough to green light a sequel.  You do make a good point about its competition for screens around it's release.  That said, it is the only Hard R movie being released this summer which might help it (but as you said there is a lot of consumer apathy towards it currently).

300m worldwide is my revised guess.  It's make money but not enough to secure an instant sequel.  Not enough for Fox to feel secure in the direction they are heading in either.

300 million world wide would certainly lose a lot of money for this film through the box office.  They would have to make up a lot of it through other avenues.

To expand, the budget for production was roughly 110 million.  You double that for distribution/advertising and that means the studio needs to TAKE IN 220 million to break even.  You have to keep in mind that the studio does not take in every box office dollar reported.  They keep about 50% of the US market, 33% from China and about 40% from the rest of the world.

If this makes 100 in the US and 200 million over seas that means the studio gets, approximately, 130 million dollars.  Which means they lost 90 million.  There are other ways to make up revenue but box office is the single largest one.  The second largest is usually dvd/blu ray sales of which Prometheus made 43 million off of.  There are costs for that too though.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: juxtapose on May 11, 2017, 04:33:13 PM
. .i think covenant will do well internationally. .i don't have high hopes for the US tho. .US audiences are very much into commercial trash. .i am thinking it might do similar numbers to prometheus and if word of mouth is good. .and i am thinking it will be. .then with some luck 450 to 500 global. .
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: cucuchu on May 11, 2017, 04:36:35 PM
Quote from: Robopadna on May 11, 2017, 04:12:11 PM
Quote from: fiveways on May 11, 2017, 03:29:27 PM
Quote from: cucuchu on May 11, 2017, 01:57:07 PM
I had originally been quite optimistic, thinking it would perform in the 400million+ at the Box Office, but I am going to cut that down drastically to 60 million domestically in the US and 120 million WW. Reason being, I do not see the hype for it here in the states (anecdotally anyways) and theaters are utilizing their premium screens (IMAX, Dolby, etc) for Guardians of the Galaxy 2 (during its 3rd week, Alien's first) and Pirates of the Caribbean on its first week and going forward (Alien's 2nd and going forward). People I talk to seem confused about it and either do not know what I am talking about or are in the mind of "Oh, is that coming out this year? huh...."...i.e. it does not seem like many people are tracking or following it. I HOPE I am dead wrong but between the lack of enthusiasm from the general public, at least that I have encountered, and the lack of theater confidence in the film, I just don't see it performing well by any standard.

Maybe audiences from everywhere outside the US can make up for its potential lack of performance here. I certainly hope so. I know some people think that it could be a good thing if it does not perform well because it might make Ridley Scott reconsider his direction with the series, but I fear they may just scrap Ridley Scott from control of the series altogether and bring in someone fresh 10 - 15 years from now when they feel its time for another go.

$180m would certainly shelf it for a long time.  That would be consider a massive flop.  It might break even with those numbers after tax breaks, netflix, digital and broadcast rights and all that jazz, but it definitely wouldn't be enough to green light a sequel.  You do make a good point about its competition for screens around it's release.  That said, it is the only Hard R movie being released this summer which might help it (but as you said there is a lot of consumer apathy towards it currently).

300m worldwide is my revised guess.  It's make money but not enough to secure an instant sequel.  Not enough for Fox to feel secure in the direction they are heading in either.

300 million world wide would certainly lose a lot of money for this film through the box office.  They would have to make up a lot of it through other avenues.

To expand, the budget for production was roughly 110 million.  You double that for distribution/advertising and that means the studio needs to TAKE IN 220 million to break even.  You have to keep in mind that the studio does not take in every box office dollar reported.  They keep about 50% of the US market, 33% from China and about 40% from the rest of the world.

If this makes 100 in the US and 200 million over seas that means the studio gets, approximately, 130 million dollars.  Which means they lost 90 million.  There are other ways to make up revenue but box office is the single largest one.  The second largest is usually dvd/blu ray sales of which Prometheus made 43 million off of.  There are costs for that too though.

Sounds like you have the box office analysis down to a science. When do you think we will have an idea on how Alien Covenant is performing in comparison to Prometheus in the market that it has been released this week? It would be cool to track the progress side by side. If it gets Prometheus numbers, I would consider it successful, all things considered. The optimist in me hopes for much better but that does not look like that will be the reality.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: fiveways on May 11, 2017, 04:38:31 PM
Quote from: Robopadna on May 11, 2017, 04:12:11 PM
Quote from: fiveways on May 11, 2017, 03:29:27 PM
Quote from: cucuchu on May 11, 2017, 01:57:07 PM
I had originally been quite optimistic, thinking it would perform in the 400million+ at the Box Office, but I am going to cut that down drastically to 60 million domestically in the US and 120 million WW. Reason being, I do not see the hype for it here in the states (anecdotally anyways) and theaters are utilizing their premium screens (IMAX, Dolby, etc) for Guardians of the Galaxy 2 (during its 3rd week, Alien's first) and Pirates of the Caribbean on its first week and going forward (Alien's 2nd and going forward). People I talk to seem confused about it and either do not know what I am talking about or are in the mind of "Oh, is that coming out this year? huh...."...i.e. it does not seem like many people are tracking or following it. I HOPE I am dead wrong but between the lack of enthusiasm from the general public, at least that I have encountered, and the lack of theater confidence in the film, I just don't see it performing well by any standard.

Maybe audiences from everywhere outside the US can make up for its potential lack of performance here. I certainly hope so. I know some people think that it could be a good thing if it does not perform well because it might make Ridley Scott reconsider his direction with the series, but I fear they may just scrap Ridley Scott from control of the series altogether and bring in someone fresh 10 - 15 years from now when they feel its time for another go.

$180m would certainly shelf it for a long time.  That would be consider a massive flop.  It might break even with those numbers after tax breaks, netflix, digital and broadcast rights and all that jazz, but it definitely wouldn't be enough to green light a sequel.  You do make a good point about its competition for screens around it's release.  That said, it is the only Hard R movie being released this summer which might help it (but as you said there is a lot of consumer apathy towards it currently).

300m worldwide is my revised guess.  It's make money but not enough to secure an instant sequel.  Not enough for Fox to feel secure in the direction they are heading in either.

300 million world wide would certainly lose a lot of money for this film through the box office.  They would have to make up a lot of it through other avenues.

To expand, the budget for production was roughly 110 million.  You double that for distribution/advertising and that means the studio needs to TAKE IN 220 million to break even.  You have to keep in mind that the studio does not take in every box office dollar reported.  They keep about 50% of the US market, 33% from China and about 40% from the rest of the world.

If this makes 100 in the US and 200 million over seas that means the studio gets, approximately, 130 million dollars.  Which means they lost 90 million.  There are other ways to make up revenue but box office is the single largest one.  The second largest is usually dvd/blu ray sales of which Prometheus made 43 million off of.  There are costs for that too though.

I didn't think they were doubling budget for for advertising.  I've seen dick on TV/the internet advertising for it.  I was thinking more like half the budget. So 55m this time out (because as we both know it can be anywhere from half the budget to over the budget spent pushing the movie).  That advertising is always the tough one as i have no idea how it is being pushed outside where i am.  From my point of view it looks mostly like word of mouth/advance screening sort of advertising seems to be their focus.  I'm not seeing it everywhere like GitS was pushed.

I figured 300m considering that, tax breaks, product placement deals, and blu-ray/netflix/digital seemed like a break even point.  Glory of Hollywood math is we won't actually ever really know.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Robopadna on May 11, 2017, 05:22:38 PM
Quote from: fiveways on May 11, 2017, 04:38:31 PM
Quote from: Robopadna on May 11, 2017, 04:12:11 PM
Quote from: fiveways on May 11, 2017, 03:29:27 PM
Quote from: cucuchu on May 11, 2017, 01:57:07 PM
I had originally been quite optimistic, thinking it would perform in the 400million+ at the Box Office, but I am going to cut that down drastically to 60 million domestically in the US and 120 million WW. Reason being, I do not see the hype for it here in the states (anecdotally anyways) and theaters are utilizing their premium screens (IMAX, Dolby, etc) for Guardians of the Galaxy 2 (during its 3rd week, Alien's first) and Pirates of the Caribbean on its first week and going forward (Alien's 2nd and going forward). People I talk to seem confused about it and either do not know what I am talking about or are in the mind of "Oh, is that coming out this year? huh...."...i.e. it does not seem like many people are tracking or following it. I HOPE I am dead wrong but between the lack of enthusiasm from the general public, at least that I have encountered, and the lack of theater confidence in the film, I just don't see it performing well by any standard.

Maybe audiences from everywhere outside the US can make up for its potential lack of performance here. I certainly hope so. I know some people think that it could be a good thing if it does not perform well because it might make Ridley Scott reconsider his direction with the series, but I fear they may just scrap Ridley Scott from control of the series altogether and bring in someone fresh 10 - 15 years from now when they feel its time for another go.

$180m would certainly shelf it for a long time.  That would be consider a massive flop.  It might break even with those numbers after tax breaks, netflix, digital and broadcast rights and all that jazz, but it definitely wouldn't be enough to green light a sequel.  You do make a good point about its competition for screens around it's release.  That said, it is the only Hard R movie being released this summer which might help it (but as you said there is a lot of consumer apathy towards it currently).

300m worldwide is my revised guess.  It's make money but not enough to secure an instant sequel.  Not enough for Fox to feel secure in the direction they are heading in either.

300 million world wide would certainly lose a lot of money for this film through the box office.  They would have to make up a lot of it through other avenues.

To expand, the budget for production was roughly 110 million.  You double that for distribution/advertising and that means the studio needs to TAKE IN 220 million to break even.  You have to keep in mind that the studio does not take in every box office dollar reported.  They keep about 50% of the US market, 33% from China and about 40% from the rest of the world.

If this makes 100 in the US and 200 million over seas that means the studio gets, approximately, 130 million dollars.  Which means they lost 90 million.  There are other ways to make up revenue but box office is the single largest one.  The second largest is usually dvd/blu ray sales of which Prometheus made 43 million off of.  There are costs for that too though.

I didn't think they were doubling budget for for advertising.  I've seen dick on TV/the internet advertising for it.  I was thinking more like half the budget. So 55m this time out (because as we both know it can be anywhere from half the budget to over the budget spent pushing the movie).  That advertising is always the tough one as i have no idea how it is being pushed outside where i am.  From my point of view it looks mostly like word of mouth/advance screening sort of advertising seems to be their focus.  I'm not seeing it everywhere like GitS was pushed.

I figured 300m considering that, tax breaks, product placement deals, and blu-ray/netflix/digital seemed like a break even point.  Glory of Hollywood math is we won't actually ever really know.

You always double it for distribution and advertising...  I have seen a LOT of ads for it personally, but advertising takes more forms than traditional 15 seconds clips show on during commercial breaks.

Product placement isn't going to amount to much in this movie and Netflix is, at best, nebulous in terms of what it makes the studio on an individual movie level.  Do they even have a deal with Fox?  I don't think they do but I could be wrong.

You need it to hit about 450-500 in box office to say it most likely broke even.

Honestly I am using their figure of 111 million for the budget but I wouldn't be shocked if it was considerably higher. It usually is on movies like this with prolonged development cycles.  You are right in that we will most likely not know the exact answer but I feel strongly it needs to do moderately well world wide. I think they moved into this release slot precisely because they financially had to for any real shot at recouping costs.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant\'s Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: SuicideDoors on May 13, 2017, 08:08:15 AM
QuoteWith 271mila euro, Alien: Covenant sailed high above the other Fridays and salt film 482mila euro in two days. Prometheus was released Friday in September 2014 and raised over half a million euro: the comparison is not so automatic because the film had a high proportion of 3D screens (the 520 thousand euro of Prometheus corresponded to 61 thousand spectators, the 482mila in two days Alien: Covenant correspond to 65 thousand spectators).

http://www.badtaste.it/2017/05/13/box-office-italia-alien-covenant-testa-venerdi-271mila-euro/243574/

Lack of 3D may distort its overall gross which is something i neglectfully didn't think about.


Quote from: chris_bert on May 11, 2017, 03:32:53 PM
I fear the consequences of it not performing are far worse.

And Ridley Scott says a lot of things. I love him to pieces, but I don't think he'll do another Alien movie after Covenant.
After hearing about the reviews and such, I'm not planning on seeing it in the theater any longer and will either catch it on Netflix or purchase the blu ray when it's released. Was just curious about your comment where you think there won't be another Alien movie after Covenant...have you already seen it or is this just what you are feeling after some of the information made available by reviewers that have already seen the film? I'm just curious.
[/quote]

Oh, I think they'll be another Alien film for sure!! I just don't think it's as clear cut that Ridley will be directing like he's currently saying. He seems to have a habit of changing his mind.

Eagerly awaiting news of Friday's box office results for Cov! I hope they are decent. I'm seeing the film on IMAX for a second time today. I hope it warms my soul a bit more this time...
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Spidey3121 on May 13, 2017, 07:28:32 PM
As the film opens and actual numbers start coming in, I feel like this thread ought not be buried. My local IMAX is sticking with Guardians, sadly. I would've loved to see Covenant on the biggest of screens, although it being in 2D lessens that desire.

I honestly feel like anything less than the WW gross of Prometheus would be a disappointment. FOX clearly has confidence in the picture, although they gave themselves a small cushion by cutting back on the budget. Still, they've gone the route of "course correction" so to speak and heavily advertised that Alien aspects of the film. We're not talking about "Paradise". Beyond the converted, they're clearly marketing to general audiences who remember their love of Alien & Aliens, who possibly didn't see Prometheus or even know that there's any connection.

I have trouble believing that FOX would even green light this project if they didn't expect it to outperform Prometheus, or worst case scenario, perform at that same level. The pre Memorial Day weekend is historically a good place to be, so they've set it up for success. It looks like the RT score is settling in at 75% which in my eyes counts as win given the type of film it is & all the baggage the franchise carries with it. FOX may circle back to Alien eventually if this film underperforms, b/c IP recognition reigns supreme, but this is a good litmus test of popularity.
Title: Re: Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!
Post by: Corporal Hicks on May 14, 2017, 01:04:52 PM
Quote from: Spidey3121 on May 13, 2017, 07:28:32 PM
As the film opens and actual numbers start coming in, I feel like this thread ought not be buried. My local IMAX is sticking with Guardians, sadly. I would've loved to see Covenant on the biggest of screens, although it being in 2D lessens that desire.

We'll start a new topic when actual numbers start coming out. I'm sure we'll be covering it on the front page too.

New thread - http://www.avpgalaxy.net/forum/index.php?topic=57436.0