Alien Covenant's Box Office Prediction!!

[chris_bert]

I fear the consequences of it not performing are far worse.

And Ridley Scott says a lot of things. I love him to pieces, but I don't think he'll do another Alien movie after Covenant.
[/quote]
After hearing about the reviews and such, I'm not planning on seeing it in the theater any longer and will either catch it on Netflix or purchase the blu ray when it's released. Was just curious about your comment where you think there won't be another Alien movie after Covenant...have you already seen it or is this just what you are feeling after some of the information made available by reviewers that have already seen the film? I'm just curious.

[cucuchu]

It'll do spectacularly. You all need to be hope so too. If it doesn't do well, they won't start with a blank slate, they will keep it dormant for years.

That is my fear too. I keep going back and forth on how I feel it will do. If you look on youtube (where a lot of people go for their review source) and see some of the popular reviewers, they are all over the place. Some love it, some really like it, some says its decent and some just do not like it at all. Although, usually the ones in the "don't like it crowd" seem to spend most of their reviews mocking the storytelling and that these colonists were be so dumb to get themselves into the situation in the first place, but that does not really bother me. I can suspend my disbelief if it makes for good storytelling because if every story every told only involved people behaving in perfectly logical, intelligent manners, then there would be no interesting stories. You need people to screw up and make bad decisions. Its why there is a damn story in the first place. So yeah, I don't see that bothering the general audience too much.

Back to the point though... its really hard to predict at this point. Theaters don't seem to have much confidence in it here in the states (I've gone on about this and even made a thread pertaining to it), but maybe public interest can push beyond that and make theaters sorry they didn't prioritize Alien Covenant over GotG2 (on its 3rd week no less).

I had originally been quite optimistic, thinking it would perform in the 400million+ at the Box Office, but I am going to cut that down drastically to 60 million domestically in the US and 120 million WW. Reason being, I do not see the hype for it here in the states (anecdotally anyways) and theaters are utilizing their premium screens (IMAX, Dolby, etc) for Guardians of the Galaxy 2 (during its 3rd week, Alien's first) and Pirates of the Caribbean on its first week and going forward (Alien's 2nd and going forward). People I talk to seem confused about it and either do not know what I am talking about or are in the mind of "Oh, is that coming out this year? huh...."...i.e. it does not seem like many people are tracking or following it. I HOPE I am dead wrong but between the lack of enthusiasm from the general public, at least that I have encountered, and the lack of theater confidence in the film, I just don't see it performing well by any standard.

Maybe audiences from everywhere outside the US can make up for its potential lack of performance here. I certainly hope so. I know some people think that it could be a good thing if it does not perform well because it might make Ridley Scott reconsider his direction with the series, but I fear they may just scrap Ridley Scott from control of the series altogether and bring in someone fresh 10 - 15 years from now when they feel its time for another go.

$180m would certainly shelf it for a long time.  That would be consider a massive flop.  It might break even with those numbers after tax breaks, netflix, digital and broadcast rights and all that jazz, but it definitely wouldn't be enough to green light a sequel.  You do make a good point about its competition for screens around it's release.  That said, it is the only Hard R movie being released this summer which might help it (but as you said there is a lot of consumer apathy towards it currently).

300m worldwide is my revised guess.  It's make money but not enough to secure an instant sequel.  Not enough for Fox to feel secure in the direction they are heading in either.

$300m worldwide would be my guess on the optimistic side and I could get behind that depending on how the opening weekend goes here in the states and we see the numbers from around the world.

Again though, my interpretation of public apathy is merely based on the people I have run across in my local area (Washington D.C, Baltimore area). It might not be indicative of the rest of the country. The theaters not prioritizing it could be based on any number of factors that I am not aware of such as deals made between studios and theaters to support films in IMAX for a certain number of weeks, or anything really. Since reviewers are all over the place with reviews, its hard to determine how that will effect things because it seems like for every so-so review, there is a good one and it really depends on who people trust for their reviews and if they are even influenced by them. I suppose one piece of good news is that there are very few actual negative reviews in comparison to the good/decent reviews. In fact, there are far more very positive reviews than very negative. So there is some hope....

[fiveways]

It'll do spectacularly. You all need to be hope so too. If it doesn't do well, they won't start with a blank slate, they will keep it dormant for years.

.

Back to the point though... its really hard to predict at this point. Theaters don't seem to have much confidence in it here in the states (I've gone on about this and even made a thread pertaining to it), but maybe public interest can push beyond that and make theaters sorry they didn't prioritize Alien Covenant over GotG2 (on its 3rd week no less).

I can't see that happening.  Third week for GotG2 will still be super strong as that is when people who dislike crowds of children will start going to see it.  I'm actually planning to head out to a late showing of it that week/weekend as the initial fury of activity will be over and it will be a much more reasonable and reserved crowd. 

[Robopadna]

I had originally been quite optimistic, thinking it would perform in the 400million+ at the Box Office, but I am going to cut that down drastically to 60 million domestically in the US and 120 million WW. Reason being, I do not see the hype for it here in the states (anecdotally anyways) and theaters are utilizing their premium screens (IMAX, Dolby, etc) for Guardians of the Galaxy 2 (during its 3rd week, Alien's first) and Pirates of the Caribbean on its first week and going forward (Alien's 2nd and going forward). People I talk to seem confused about it and either do not know what I am talking about or are in the mind of "Oh, is that coming out this year? huh...."...i.e. it does not seem like many people are tracking or following it. I HOPE I am dead wrong but between the lack of enthusiasm from the general public, at least that I have encountered, and the lack of theater confidence in the film, I just don't see it performing well by any standard.

Maybe audiences from everywhere outside the US can make up for its potential lack of performance here. I certainly hope so. I know some people think that it could be a good thing if it does not perform well because it might make Ridley Scott reconsider his direction with the series, but I fear they may just scrap Ridley Scott from control of the series altogether and bring in someone fresh 10 - 15 years from now when they feel its time for another go.

$180m would certainly shelf it for a long time.  That would be consider a massive flop.  It might break even with those numbers after tax breaks, netflix, digital and broadcast rights and all that jazz, but it definitely wouldn't be enough to green light a sequel.  You do make a good point about its competition for screens around it's release.  That said, it is the only Hard R movie being released this summer which might help it (but as you said there is a lot of consumer apathy towards it currently).

300m worldwide is my revised guess.  It's make money but not enough to secure an instant sequel.  Not enough for Fox to feel secure in the direction they are heading in either.

300 million world wide would certainly lose a lot of money for this film through the box office.  They would have to make up a lot of it through other avenues.

To expand, the budget for production was roughly 110 million.  You double that for distribution/advertising and that means the studio needs to TAKE IN 220 million to break even.  You have to keep in mind that the studio does not take in every box office dollar reported.  They keep about 50% of the US market, 33% from China and about 40% from the rest of the world.

If this makes 100 in the US and 200 million over seas that means the studio gets, approximately, 130 million dollars.  Which means they lost 90 million.  There are other ways to make up revenue but box office is the single largest one.  The second largest is usually dvd/blu ray sales of which Prometheus made 43 million off of.  There are costs for that too though.

[juxtapose]

. .i think covenant will do well internationally. .i don't have high hopes for the US tho. .US audiences are very much into commercial trash. .i am thinking it might do similar numbers to prometheus and if word of mouth is good. .and i am thinking it will be. .then with some luck 450 to 500 global. .

[cucuchu]

I had originally been quite optimistic, thinking it would perform in the 400million+ at the Box Office, but I am going to cut that down drastically to 60 million domestically in the US and 120 million WW. Reason being, I do not see the hype for it here in the states (anecdotally anyways) and theaters are utilizing their premium screens (IMAX, Dolby, etc) for Guardians of the Galaxy 2 (during its 3rd week, Alien's first) and Pirates of the Caribbean on its first week and going forward (Alien's 2nd and going forward). People I talk to seem confused about it and either do not know what I am talking about or are in the mind of "Oh, is that coming out this year? huh...."...i.e. it does not seem like many people are tracking or following it. I HOPE I am dead wrong but between the lack of enthusiasm from the general public, at least that I have encountered, and the lack of theater confidence in the film, I just don't see it performing well by any standard.

Maybe audiences from everywhere outside the US can make up for its potential lack of performance here. I certainly hope so. I know some people think that it could be a good thing if it does not perform well because it might make Ridley Scott reconsider his direction with the series, but I fear they may just scrap Ridley Scott from control of the series altogether and bring in someone fresh 10 - 15 years from now when they feel its time for another go.

$180m would certainly shelf it for a long time.  That would be consider a massive flop.  It might break even with those numbers after tax breaks, netflix, digital and broadcast rights and all that jazz, but it definitely wouldn't be enough to green light a sequel.  You do make a good point about its competition for screens around it's release.  That said, it is the only Hard R movie being released this summer which might help it (but as you said there is a lot of consumer apathy towards it currently).

300m worldwide is my revised guess.  It's make money but not enough to secure an instant sequel.  Not enough for Fox to feel secure in the direction they are heading in either.

300 million world wide would certainly lose a lot of money for this film through the box office.  They would have to make up a lot of it through other avenues.

To expand, the budget for production was roughly 110 million.  You double that for distribution/advertising and that means the studio needs to TAKE IN 220 million to break even.  You have to keep in mind that the studio does not take in every box office dollar reported.  They keep about 50% of the US market, 33% from China and about 40% from the rest of the world.

If this makes 100 in the US and 200 million over seas that means the studio gets, approximately, 130 million dollars.  Which means they lost 90 million.  There are other ways to make up revenue but box office is the single largest one.  The second largest is usually dvd/blu ray sales of which Prometheus made 43 million off of.  There are costs for that too though.

Sounds like you have the box office analysis down to a science. When do you think we will have an idea on how Alien Covenant is performing in comparison to Prometheus in the market that it has been released this week? It would be cool to track the progress side by side. If it gets Prometheus numbers, I would consider it successful, all things considered. The optimist in me hopes for much better but that does not look like that will be the reality.

[fiveways]

I had originally been quite optimistic, thinking it would perform in the 400million+ at the Box Office, but I am going to cut that down drastically to 60 million domestically in the US and 120 million WW. Reason being, I do not see the hype for it here in the states (anecdotally anyways) and theaters are utilizing their premium screens (IMAX, Dolby, etc) for Guardians of the Galaxy 2 (during its 3rd week, Alien's first) and Pirates of the Caribbean on its first week and going forward (Alien's 2nd and going forward). People I talk to seem confused about it and either do not know what I am talking about or are in the mind of "Oh, is that coming out this year? huh...."...i.e. it does not seem like many people are tracking or following it. I HOPE I am dead wrong but between the lack of enthusiasm from the general public, at least that I have encountered, and the lack of theater confidence in the film, I just don't see it performing well by any standard.

Maybe audiences from everywhere outside the US can make up for its potential lack of performance here. I certainly hope so. I know some people think that it could be a good thing if it does not perform well because it might make Ridley Scott reconsider his direction with the series, but I fear they may just scrap Ridley Scott from control of the series altogether and bring in someone fresh 10 - 15 years from now when they feel its time for another go.

$180m would certainly shelf it for a long time.  That would be consider a massive flop.  It might break even with those numbers after tax breaks, netflix, digital and broadcast rights and all that jazz, but it definitely wouldn't be enough to green light a sequel.  You do make a good point about its competition for screens around it's release.  That said, it is the only Hard R movie being released this summer which might help it (but as you said there is a lot of consumer apathy towards it currently).

300m worldwide is my revised guess.  It's make money but not enough to secure an instant sequel.  Not enough for Fox to feel secure in the direction they are heading in either.

300 million world wide would certainly lose a lot of money for this film through the box office.  They would have to make up a lot of it through other avenues.

To expand, the budget for production was roughly 110 million.  You double that for distribution/advertising and that means the studio needs to TAKE IN 220 million to break even.  You have to keep in mind that the studio does not take in every box office dollar reported.  They keep about 50% of the US market, 33% from China and about 40% from the rest of the world.

If this makes 100 in the US and 200 million over seas that means the studio gets, approximately, 130 million dollars.  Which means they lost 90 million.  There are other ways to make up revenue but box office is the single largest one.  The second largest is usually dvd/blu ray sales of which Prometheus made 43 million off of.  There are costs for that too though.

I didn't think they were doubling budget for for advertising.  I've seen dick on TV/the internet advertising for it.  I was thinking more like half the budget. So 55m this time out (because as we both know it can be anywhere from half the budget to over the budget spent pushing the movie).  That advertising is always the tough one as i have no idea how it is being pushed outside where i am.  From my point of view it looks mostly like word of mouth/advance screening sort of advertising seems to be their focus.  I'm not seeing it everywhere like GitS was pushed.

I figured 300m considering that, tax breaks, product placement deals, and blu-ray/netflix/digital seemed like a break even point.  Glory of Hollywood math is we won't actually ever really know.

[Robopadna]

I had originally been quite optimistic, thinking it would perform in the 400million+ at the Box Office, but I am going to cut that down drastically to 60 million domestically in the US and 120 million WW. Reason being, I do not see the hype for it here in the states (anecdotally anyways) and theaters are utilizing their premium screens (IMAX, Dolby, etc) for Guardians of the Galaxy 2 (during its 3rd week, Alien's first) and Pirates of the Caribbean on its first week and going forward (Alien's 2nd and going forward). People I talk to seem confused about it and either do not know what I am talking about or are in the mind of "Oh, is that coming out this year? huh...."...i.e. it does not seem like many people are tracking or following it. I HOPE I am dead wrong but between the lack of enthusiasm from the general public, at least that I have encountered, and the lack of theater confidence in the film, I just don't see it performing well by any standard.

Maybe audiences from everywhere outside the US can make up for its potential lack of performance here. I certainly hope so. I know some people think that it could be a good thing if it does not perform well because it might make Ridley Scott reconsider his direction with the series, but I fear they may just scrap Ridley Scott from control of the series altogether and bring in someone fresh 10 - 15 years from now when they feel its time for another go.

$180m would certainly shelf it for a long time.  That would be consider a massive flop.  It might break even with those numbers after tax breaks, netflix, digital and broadcast rights and all that jazz, but it definitely wouldn't be enough to green light a sequel.  You do make a good point about its competition for screens around it's release.  That said, it is the only Hard R movie being released this summer which might help it (but as you said there is a lot of consumer apathy towards it currently).

300m worldwide is my revised guess.  It's make money but not enough to secure an instant sequel.  Not enough for Fox to feel secure in the direction they are heading in either.

300 million world wide would certainly lose a lot of money for this film through the box office.  They would have to make up a lot of it through other avenues.

To expand, the budget for production was roughly 110 million.  You double that for distribution/advertising and that means the studio needs to TAKE IN 220 million to break even.  You have to keep in mind that the studio does not take in every box office dollar reported.  They keep about 50% of the US market, 33% from China and about 40% from the rest of the world.

If this makes 100 in the US and 200 million over seas that means the studio gets, approximately, 130 million dollars.  Which means they lost 90 million.  There are other ways to make up revenue but box office is the single largest one.  The second largest is usually dvd/blu ray sales of which Prometheus made 43 million off of.  There are costs for that too though.

I didn't think they were doubling budget for for advertising.  I've seen dick on TV/the internet advertising for it.  I was thinking more like half the budget. So 55m this time out (because as we both know it can be anywhere from half the budget to over the budget spent pushing the movie).  That advertising is always the tough one as i have no idea how it is being pushed outside where i am.  From my point of view it looks mostly like word of mouth/advance screening sort of advertising seems to be their focus.  I'm not seeing it everywhere like GitS was pushed.

I figured 300m considering that, tax breaks, product placement deals, and blu-ray/netflix/digital seemed like a break even point.  Glory of Hollywood math is we won't actually ever really know.

You always double it for distribution and advertising...  I have seen a LOT of ads for it personally, but advertising takes more forms than traditional 15 seconds clips show on during commercial breaks.

Product placement isn't going to amount to much in this movie and Netflix is, at best, nebulous in terms of what it makes the studio on an individual movie level.  Do they even have a deal with Fox?  I don't think they do but I could be wrong.

You need it to hit about 450-500 in box office to say it most likely broke even.

Honestly I am using their figure of 111 million for the budget but I wouldn't be shocked if it was considerably higher. It usually is on movies like this with prolonged development cycles.  You are right in that we will most likely not know the exact answer but I feel strongly it needs to do moderately well world wide. I think they moved into this release slot precisely because they financially had to for any real shot at recouping costs.

[SuicideDoors]

With 271mila euro, Alien: Covenant sailed high above the other Fridays and salt film 482mila euro in two days. Prometheus was released Friday in September 2014 and raised over half a million euro: the comparison is not so automatic because the film had a high proportion of 3D screens (the 520 thousand euro of Prometheus corresponded to 61 thousand spectators, the 482mila in two days Alien: Covenant correspond to 65 thousand spectators).

http://www.badtaste.it/2017/05/13/box-office-italia-alien-covenant-testa-venerdi-271mila-euro/243574/

Lack of 3D may distort its overall gross which is something i neglectfully didn't think about.

I fear the consequences of it not performing are far worse.

And Ridley Scott says a lot of things. I love him to pieces, but I don't think he'll do another Alien movie after Covenant.

After hearing about the reviews and such, I'm not planning on seeing it in the theater any longer and will either catch it on Netflix or purchase the blu ray when it's released. Was just curious about your comment where you think there won't be another Alien movie after Covenant...have you already seen it or is this just what you are feeling after some of the information made available by reviewers that have already seen the film? I'm just curious.
[/quote]

Oh, I think they'll be another Alien film for sure!! I just don't think it's as clear cut that Ridley will be directing like he's currently saying. He seems to have a habit of changing his mind.

Eagerly awaiting news of Friday's box office results for Cov! I hope they are decent. I'm seeing the film on IMAX for a second time today. I hope it warms my soul a bit more this time...

[Spidey3121]

As the film opens and actual numbers start coming in, I feel like this thread ought not be buried. My local IMAX is sticking with Guardians, sadly. I would've loved to see Covenant on the biggest of screens, although it being in 2D lessens that desire.

I honestly feel like anything less than the WW gross of Prometheus would be a disappointment. FOX clearly has confidence in the picture, although they gave themselves a small cushion by cutting back on the budget. Still, they've gone the route of "course correction" so to speak and heavily advertised that Alien aspects of the film. We're not talking about "Paradise". Beyond the converted, they're clearly marketing to general audiences who remember their love of Alien & Aliens, who possibly didn't see Prometheus or even know that there's any connection.

I have trouble believing that FOX would even green light this project if they didn't expect it to outperform Prometheus, or worst case scenario, perform at that same level. The pre Memorial Day weekend is historically a good place to be, so they've set it up for success. It looks like the RT score is settling in at 75% which in my eyes counts as win given the type of film it is & all the baggage the franchise carries with it. FOX may circle back to Alien eventually if this film underperforms, b/c IP recognition reigns supreme, but this is a good litmus test of popularity.

[Corporal Hicks]

As the film opens and actual numbers start coming in, I feel like this thread ought not be buried. My local IMAX is sticking with Guardians, sadly. I would've loved to see Covenant on the biggest of screens, although it being in 2D lessens that desire.

We'll start a new topic when actual numbers start coming out. I'm sure we'll be covering it on the front page too.

New thread - http://www.avpgalaxy.net/forum/index.php?topic=57436.0