Alien: Covenant Box Office Performance

[cucuchu]

No, it does not need "about 400-450 to break even". If that were the case, Prometheus would be a money-loser and we'd never get Covenant.

Studios are businesses. They didn't agree on a sequel for the fans' sake.

It does.

Prometheus was a box office money loser by a fairly decent amount.  That is partially why this was given a lower absolute budget even five years later, even though it almost always goes the other way due to inflation alone.

There are other ways a movie can make money and through those avenues Prometheus nearly broke even.  The studio wanted a new franchise and they were willing to take an initial loss of some degree to establish it.  If Prometheus had made money, they would not have forced this massive shift to Aliens in it and given it a lower budget.  Prometheus lost money.

Covenant needs about 400-450 to break even at the box office.  There are other ways for it to make money (dvd sales being a relatively large one) but the box office is king in terms of amount of money taken in and public perception.

No studio greenlights a movie in 2015 hoping to earn back its investment through home video sales.
The market's pretty much dead and looks nothing like it did back in 2012.

You are 100% dead wrong.  People buy dvds or digital media for the top movies at very high rates.  To throw out an example, TFA made nearly 200 million in dvd sales alone (non digital), last year.

Frozen made a little less than 400 million dollars in physical media sales.

If you want to only look at R rated movies, deadpool made nearly 100 million.

These are not going to save an absolutely tanking movie and I explicitly said they would not.  In Prometheus' case they definitely pushed the movie close to the breaking even point though which, in part, convinced the studio to allow this sequel (with some stipulations).  Physical and digital media sales are very powerful revenue streams.

Thanks for the insight and info! Do you by chance have a source or link for Prometheus numbers? I have heard so many conflicting reports about how much it took to make even...would be nice to see some hard numbers. If not, no problem, I will do some searching when I am at home.

Edit: not specific to Prometheus but I found this article helpful for explaining what it takes for a film to actually be profitable
http://www.boxofficeflops.com/articles/when-does-a-movie-break-even-at-the-box-office/

Unfortunately you will never get a fully disclosed number from the studio BUT the reported budget was 130 million dollars.  That does not include advertisement and distribution which, in the case of Prometheus, was extensive.  Using some known numbers and numbers culled from Sony's leaked email scandal, it is commonly accepted that a marketing push of that type is probably is in the 100-150 range.  That means the movie is sitting around 250-280 million dollar budget overall.

Thank you!

Your assessment would be correct then. Looks like they either hit cost at the box office or close to it, and the rest would be profit for the studio. I was not aware that they spent that much in marketing. I was under the impression that viral marketing (which they did well) was cheaper than just blasting your tv spots everywhere. They must of done a lot of traditional marketing as well...that's a big number.

So I wonder what it will take for Fox to green light Ridley Scotts prequel finale. I would assume that IF Covenant flopped, not saying it will...I am quite optimistic actually, that Fox would probably still want to finish the story being told. If you end with Covenant, then you leave a gaping hole in the story,  but Fox might not care if it leaves them losing money. I hope he can finish the story with one more well made film, then give the franchise to someone new with a good mind for the franchise that will bring in heavy Giger influence.

[Robopadna]

No, it does not need "about 400-450 to break even". If that were the case, Prometheus would be a money-loser and we'd never get Covenant.

Studios are businesses. They didn't agree on a sequel for the fans' sake.

It does.

Prometheus was a box office money loser by a fairly decent amount.  That is partially why this was given a lower absolute budget even five years later, even though it almost always goes the other way due to inflation alone.

There are other ways a movie can make money and through those avenues Prometheus nearly broke even.  The studio wanted a new franchise and they were willing to take an initial loss of some degree to establish it.  If Prometheus had made money, they would not have forced this massive shift to Aliens in it and given it a lower budget.  Prometheus lost money.

Covenant needs about 400-450 to break even at the box office.  There are other ways for it to make money (dvd sales being a relatively large one) but the box office is king in terms of amount of money taken in and public perception.

No studio greenlights a movie in 2015 hoping to earn back its investment through home video sales.
The market's pretty much dead and looks nothing like it did back in 2012.

You are 100% dead wrong.  People buy dvds or digital media for the top movies at very high rates.  To throw out an example, TFA made nearly 200 million in dvd sales alone (non digital), last year.

Frozen made a little less than 400 million dollars in physical media sales.

If you want to only look at R rated movies, deadpool made nearly 100 million.

These are not going to save an absolutely tanking movie and I explicitly said they would not.  In Prometheus' case they definitely pushed the movie close to the breaking even point though which, in part, convinced the studio to allow this sequel (with some stipulations).  Physical and digital media sales are very powerful revenue streams.

Thanks for the insight and info! Do you by chance have a source or link for Prometheus numbers? I have heard so many conflicting reports about how much it took to make even...would be nice to see some hard numbers. If not, no problem, I will do some searching when I am at home.

Edit: not specific to Prometheus but I found this article helpful for explaining what it takes for a film to actually be profitable
http://www.boxofficeflops.com/articles/when-does-a-movie-break-even-at-the-box-office/

Unfortunately you will never get a fully disclosed number from the studio BUT the reported budget was 130 million dollars.  That does not include advertisement and distribution which, in the case of Prometheus, was extensive.  Using some known numbers and numbers culled from Sony's leaked email scandal, it is commonly accepted that a marketing push of that type is probably is in the 100-150 range.  That means the movie is sitting around 250-280 million dollar budget overall.

Thank you!

Your assessment would be correct then. Looks like they either hit cost at the box office or close to it, and the rest would be profit for the studio. I was not aware that they spent that much in marketing. I was under the impression that viral marketing (which they did well) was cheaper than just blasting your tv spots everywhere. They must of done a lot of traditional marketing as well...that's a big number.

So I wonder what it will take for Fox to green light Ridley Scotts prequel finale. I would assume that IF Covenant flopped, not saying it will...I am quite optimistic actually, that Fox would probably still want to finish the story being told. If you end with Covenant, then you leave a gaping hole in the story,  but Fox might not care if it leaves them losing money. I hope he can finish the story with one more well made film, then give the franchise to someone new with a good mind for the franchise that will bring in heavy Giger influence.

Here is an in depth look at deadpool:

It has a reported budget of 58 million dollars.

However, it had a print/ad budget of 120 million.  It had video costs of 48 million, residuals of 24 and other costs close to 75 million.  In total its costs were 325 million dollars of which the production was only 58.

The box office was massive, pulling in 363 domestic and 420 international.  The studio only kept 181 and 168 of that, respectively.  They also made 159 on rentals/dvds/digital sales and had about 138 million dollars in tv broadcast rights in the US and overseas.  Overall it pulled in 647 million for the studio.

When you take the difference you get 322 million in profit.  Which, for reference, was the second most profitable movie that year behind secret life of pets.

You can't draw one to one comparisons with deadpool for covenant but I would be surprised if it was not considerably more in costs (absolutely in budget but probably more in print/media advertising as well) and will end up slightly less in other areas of revenue (like tv distribution rights and physical/digital media sales sales).

It has a tough hill to climb, just like Prometheus did. 

One large advantage it has over deadpool is that it will have the chinese market.  The studio doesn't keep much of that but in sheer numbers it will absolutely help.

[dkwookie]

Do you seriously believe those Deadpool totals? 75 Million other costs? Just 75 Million dollars in sundries?!

Hollywood accounting is notoriously shady and the studios ensure all their films appear in the red to avoid paying back end to the talent. Don't you remember the Peter Jackson Lord Of The Rings lawsuit that showed according to studio accounting Return Of The King lost money despite making nearly 1.2 billion?

It's all smoke and mirrors and the studios love message board comments or Deadline articles that perpetuate that myth as it keeps the studio execs rolling it it

[cucuchu]

Do you seriously believe those Deadpool totals? 75 Million other costs? Just 75 Million dollars in sundries?!

Hollywood accounting is notoriously shady and the studios ensure all their films appear in the red to avoid paying back end to the talent. Don't you remember the Peter Jackson Lord Of The Rings lawsuit that showed according to studio accounting Return Of The King lost money despite making nearly 1.2 billion?

It's all smoke and mirrors and the studios love message board comments or Deadline articles that perpetuate that myth as it keeps the studio execs rolling it it

That seems like a double-edged sword... Yeah, you save money in the short term but then you also produce a poor image for the film. Public interest in any future films might be dimished if the consensus is the movie flopped.

Is 20th Century Fox notorious for this method?

[Robopadna]

Do you seriously believe those Deadpool totals? 75 Million other costs? Just 75 Million dollars in sundries?!

Hollywood accounting is notoriously shady and the studios ensure all their films appear in the red to avoid paying back end to the talent. Don't you remember the Peter Jackson Lord Of The Rings lawsuit that showed according to studio accounting Return Of The King lost money despite making nearly 1.2 billion?

It's all smoke and mirrors and the studios love message board comments or Deadline articles that perpetuate that myth as it keeps the studio execs rolling it it

Short answer, yes, to a large degree I do.  Just because you don't understand those items does not make them fake.

Long answer, it is the best estimate we have and, on top of it, there are the many leaked internal emails from Sony regarding budgets that line up with these.  Second, those have line items but people rarely understand them...  residuals, etc.  Those are very legitimate budget line items and just because you don't understand them does not mean they do not exist.  They are paid out on every single movie..... always.

Yes, there are shady practices.  Covenant was probably way more than 110 in pure budget, let alone everything else, but they do not want to be embarrassed when the box returns come in.  But it's the best estimate and roughly correct.  Fox is in for a tough time to try and break even on this movie.

If you don't believe it, simply double the budget and that will give you a very low estimate on what it cost to make and distribute the movie.  THen work tyhe math with BO returns.

[Wilo]

Do you seriously believe those Deadpool totals? 75 Million other costs? Just 75 Million dollars in sundries?!

Hollywood accounting is notoriously shady and the studios ensure all their films appear in the red to avoid paying back end to the talent. Don't you remember the Peter Jackson Lord Of The Rings lawsuit that showed according to studio accounting Return Of The King lost money despite making nearly 1.2 billion?

It's all smoke and mirrors and the studios love message board comments or Deadline articles that perpetuate that myth as it keeps the studio execs rolling it it

Short answer, yes, to a large degree I do.  Just because you don't understand those items does not make them fake.

Long answer, it is the best estimate we have and, on top of it, there are the many leaked internal emails from Sony regarding budgets that line up with these.  Second, those have line items but people rarely understand them...  residuals, etc.  Those are very legitimate budget line items and just because you don't understand them does not mean they do not exist.  They are paid out on every single movie..... always.

Yes, there are shady practices.  Covenant was probably way more than 110 in pure budget, let alone everything else, but they do not want to be embarrassed when the box returns come in.  But it's the best estimate and roughly correct.  Fox is in for a tough time to try and break even on this movie.

I'm genuinely curious where are you getting this information from? I can't be bothered to search through all the Sony emails but if they are the same emails that are on WikiLeaks' server for everyone to see, information regarding Deadpool seemed to be scarce. This would make sense as the hacking took place about half a year before Deadpool was even in the phase of principal photography.  Is it really credible that someone at that point had the numbers down anyway? Or were you referring to something else?

[fiveways]

Do you seriously believe those Deadpool totals? 75 Million other costs? Just 75 Million dollars in sundries?!

Hollywood accounting is notoriously shady and the studios ensure all their films appear in the red to avoid paying back end to the talent. Don't you remember the Peter Jackson Lord Of The Rings lawsuit that showed according to studio accounting Return Of The King lost money despite making nearly 1.2 billion?

It's all smoke and mirrors and the studios love message board comments or Deadline articles that perpetuate that myth as it keeps the studio execs rolling it it

Short answer, yes, to a large degree I do.  Just because you don't understand those items does not make them fake.

Long answer, it is the best estimate we have and, on top of it, there are the many leaked internal emails from Sony regarding budgets that line up with these.  Second, those have line items but people rarely understand them...  residuals, etc.  Those are very legitimate budget line items and just because you don't understand them does not mean they do not exist.  They are paid out on every single movie..... always.

Yes, there are shady practices.  Covenant was probably way more than 110 in pure budget, let alone everything else, but they do not want to be embarrassed when the box returns come in.  But it's the best estimate and roughly correct.  Fox is in for a tough time to try and break even on this movie.

I'm genuinely curious where are you getting this information from? I can't be bothered to search through all the Sony emails but if they are the same emails that are on WikiLeaks' server for everyone to see, information regarding Deadpool seemed to be scarce. This would make sense as the hacking took place about half a year before Deadpool was even in the phase of principal photography.  Is it really credible that someone at that point had the numbers down anyway? Or were you referring to something else?

"The Numbers" offers that on a research basis (full breakdowns).  Reality is his Final number of 322m profit is the same number they reported.  That is without a Chinese release.  I've read 90m of residuals.  Either way, move a few numbers around and there you have it.

Robopadna's numbers for deadpool line up.  And while we argue over advertising budget on Covenant it's safe to say they have a fairly large uphill battle to make real money.  China should help, but how much is always kinda a random. 

[Denton Smalls]

It's more than a little concerning A:C is underperforming compared to Prometheus in so many markets, 3D or no 3D.

I'm going to certainly support it when it hits theaters in the U.S. on Friday by seeing it twice just like I did Prometheus. The good news is there's really no competition for it next weekend except for Guardians of the Galaxy 2, and that's already been out for a couple weeks.

I desperately want this to do well because I want more movies, especially if Ridley has another one poised and ready to go in 14 months.

Some of the community are calling it a bad film and don't want more installments that may or may not deviate from Alien's lore further, but me personally, I'll take a mediocre Alien film over no Alien film any day of the week. I love the franchise and want it to stay alive without anymore prolonged gaps.

[fiveways]

It's more than a little concerning A:C is underperforming compared to Prometheus in so many markets, 3D or no 3D.

I'm going to certainly support it when it hits theaters in the U.S. on Friday by seeing it twice just like I did Prometheus. The good news is there's really no competition for it next weekend except for Guardians of the Galaxy 2, and that's already been out for a couple weeks.

I desperately want this to do well because I want more movies, especially if Ridley has another one poised and ready to go in 14 months.

Some of the community are calling it a bad film and don't want more installments that may or may not deviate from Alien's lore further, but me personally, I'll take a mediocre Alien film over no Alien film any day of the week. I love the franchise and want it to stay alive without anymore prolonged gaps.

I'm not even sure I'll see it in the theatre.

While I enjoy the franchise I'm not sold on the direction they are going in.  Canada is also a country with a Fox/Netflix deal so i know it'll be on there by the end of the year.  Nothing about this film is screaming "MUST SEE" to me.  I can wait.  I'm honestly more interested in the numbers it is generating than anything to do with the plot.

[Alienspace]

Incredible movie 9/10

[Robopadna]

Incredible movie 9/10

I think you got the wrong thread

[Jonesy1974]

It's more than a little concerning A:C is underperforming compared to Prometheus in so many markets, 3D or no 3D.

I'm going to certainly support it when it hits theaters in the U.S. on Friday by seeing it twice just like I did Prometheus. The good news is there's really no competition for it next weekend except for Guardians of the Galaxy 2, and that's already been out for a couple weeks.

I desperately want this to do well because I want more movies, especially if Ridley has another one poised and ready to go in 14 months.

Some of the community are calling it a bad film and don't want more installments that may or may not deviate from Alien's lore further, but me personally, I'll take a mediocre Alien film over no Alien film any day of the week. I love the franchise and want it to stay alive without anymore prolonged gaps.

I'm not even sure I'll see it in the theatre.

While I enjoy the franchise I'm not sold on the direction they are going in.  Canada is also a country with a Fox/Netflix deal so i know it'll be on there by the end of the year.  Nothing about this film is screaming "MUST SEE" to me.  I can wait.  I'm honestly more interested in the numbers it is generating than anything to do with the plot.

[Feeds On Minds]

I would rather they never made another Alien film over them making more of this mediocre poorly written garbage.

[Naf Neila]

@Denton Smalls

If you love the Alien saga so much, why are you willing to settle for mediocre Alien movies?

[Denton Smalls]

I'm only an Alien/Predator fan so I don't know how it goes with other popular franchises like Star Wars & Star Trek but does anyone know if "fans" that spew overwhelming negativity exist in those communities also?

Unfortunately I have to take a breather from here for a day or two and I'm wondering if anyone else feels like this because there's being critical and then there's just plain old bashing which I feel like has a lot more to do with the person than the topic at hand.

Did I love Predators and Prometheus? No. But I enjoyed the hell out of the experience of going to see the first solo Predator movie in 20 years and to see Ridley Scott dip his toe back into a saga he created.

And guess what? I'm going to enjoy the hell out of going to see the first real solo Alien movie with "Alien" in the title since I was 13 and got surprised by my Dad to see Resurrection in the theater. P.S. I didn't love that film either but nor did I say I hope they bury the series because of it.



Edit!

"Overwhelming" isn't exactly fair. That's pushing it.